| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | In a week when former Pakistan PM Imran Khan got preemptive bail from being arrested on terror charges, we had news from Russia about a suicide bomber who was planning to kill a 'top Indian leader'. Meanwhile, India is set to join war games with Russia and China, meeting Japan in a 2+2 framework, and in Russia, Putin's favourite ideologue's young daughter Darya Dugina (pic above) has been killed in a car bomb blast. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Former PM Imran Khan gets interim bail on terror charges as political, economic crisis grips Pakistan | | Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif government has no idea how to tackle deposed former prime minister Imran Khan. The more the military-backed government tries to use heavy handed tactics, the more Khan, who was rapidly losing popularity until he was ousted from office, gains in popularity. By cleverly using an anti-American narrative to his base, Khan has achieved almost demi-god status among his base, and is now threatening to take on Pakistan's all-powerful military. On Thursday, reports Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, "Khan was granted interim pre-arrest bail in two cases registered against him in connection with a rally of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in Islamabad on August 20." Khan was slapped with terrorism charges "for his controversial remarks about a female judge at the rally while a separate first FIR was registered against him on charges of violating Section 144 on the day of the rally." According to the report, Judge Raja Jawad Abbas Hassan at an anti-terrorism court in the case pertaining to his remarks about the judge, granting Khan interim bail till September 1, while later, additional sessions judge Tahir Abbas Supra granted him interim bail till September 7 in the case pertaining to the alleged violation of Section 144. Associated Press reports that the decision also temporarily alleviates concerns of violent clashes between police and Khan's supporters. The former PM has been drawing tens of thousands in mass rallies and seeking early elections since he was ousted in April in a no-confidence vote in Parliament. The government says elections will be held as scheduled next year. Outside the anti-terrorism court on Thursday, Khan told reporters that he had never threatened anyone. He also said the terrorism charges against him were politically motivated and that PM Sharif's government fears Khan's growing popularity. According to Bloomberg, "there are also signs that Khan still retains plenty of silent allies in the military even if he's fallen out of favor with the army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa. Retired army officials have attended pro-Khan rallies in recent months." The report quotes Akhil Bery of Washington-based Asia Society Policy Institute, as saying that "Imran's fight seems to be with General Bajwa and not with the military as a whole… Of course, the rank and file will continue to support the chief, but that doesn't mean that they can't be supportive of Khan as well." | | Russia arrests ISIS bomber planning suicide attacks in India; NIA, IB seek access | | Reports emerged in India, quoting Russia news agency Sputnik on Monday, that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has detained a suicide bomber, a member of the Islamic State terrorist group, who was plotting a terrorist attack against "one of India's leadership elite". A statement attributed to FSB, and represented in Indian media, said: "FSB identified and detained a member of the Islamic State international terrorist organization banned in Russia, a native of a country in the Central Asian region, who planned to commit a terrorist act by blowing himself up against one of the representatives of the ruling circles of India," adding that the terrorist "was recruited by one of the IS leaders as a suicide bomber in Turkey." According to a report in The Hindu, the FSB officials "also released a video which showed the suspect laying out the plans in Russian. It is understood that the suspect had taken an oath of allegiance to the Amir of IS, Abu al-Hasan al-Hashemi al-Qureishi, who is known to be a self-proclaimed leader of the terror outfit." India Today reports that teams of Indian security agencies NIA (National Investigation Agency) and IB (Intelligence Bureau) are likely to visit Russia to launch further investigation. The name of the Uzbek national later emerged as Mashrabkon Azamov. Hindustan Times reports that Azamov was "initiated into the Sunni terrorist group by one Yusuf Tajiki through Islamic radicalization in April 2022. According to his confession, he underwent special suicide bomber training in Turkey and arrived in Russia to leave for India. The logistics and explosives were to be provided by "some persons" in India for the targeted attack." | | India set to join Russia-hosted Vostok-22 military exercises; China confirms participation | | Russia is conducting Vostok-2022, its first major military exercises since the invasion of Ukraine. China has already declared its participation, and as of now, India has also indicated that it will join the multinational war games. According to a report in The Hindu, "Indian and Chinese troops are set to take part in military exercises in Russia later this month. China's Defence Ministry in Beijing on Wednesday in a statement announced the participation of People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops in the exercises, adding that 'India, Belarus, Tajikistan, Mongolia and other countries will also participate'. India has also indicated its participation in the war games. There was no response from the Indian Army on Wednesday to questions on this issue." Economic Times also corroborates the report. It quotes sources to report that the Indian army "will send a delegation for the exercise after an invitation was received from Moscow. An official statement on the participation is likely to be issued at a later." China's Global Times newspaper reports that "this is the first time the PLA has sent its Army, Navy and Air Force at the same time to an exercise organized by Russia… The Chinese armed forces' participation in the Vostok-2022 exercise aims to deepen practical and friendly cooperation with the militaries of other participating countries, enhance the level of strategic coordination and strengthen the ability to deal with various security threats." In an editorial, Livemint says, "India is attempting to signal to the US-led West that even though India and China are at loggerheads or that Russia is criticized and under economic sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, these should not be taken to mean that India's space for maneuver can be constrained." | | India, Japan to hold 2+2 ministerial next month ahead of Modi's visit for Abe's state funeral | | On September 8, India and Japan will hold their second 2+2 ministerial dialogue in Tokyo. Union defence minister Rajnath Singh and external affairs minister S Jaishankar will hold talks with their Japanese counterparts Yasukazu Hamada and Yoshimasa Hayashi, on "a range of key issues including the situation in the Indo-Pacific," reports Economic Times. Quoting sources, the report said, "the 2+2 dialogue may deliberate on ways to further expand bilateral cooperation in the areas of defence and security besides taking stock of the developments in the Indo-Pacific." Hindustan Times says the 2+2 meeting "will be held weeks before an expected visit to Japan by prime minister Narendra Modi to attend the state funeral of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe on September 27. The Hindu also reports on Modi's possible visit quoting Japanese media, but adds that the Indian side is yet to announce the visit and a senior official in response to the news said, the visit is "possible," indicating the details are yet to be worked out. Chinese state media Global Times, commenting on Modi's visit to Japan and the 2+2 Indo-Japanese ministerial, says the "two potential big events in September in Tokyo… will witness a further promotion of ties between the two Asian countries. But Japan and India should not target another major power, China, in the region with their outdated mentality of geopolitical confrontation while warming up their relations." | | Russia accuses Ukraine of orchestrating the killing of Dugina, daughter of Putin's closest ally | | The Russia-Ukraine war took another twist this week when the "daughter of a Russian nationalist ideologue and a powerful ally of President Vladimir Putin was killed in car bomb blast on the outskirts of Moscow Sunday. Daria (Darya) Dugina, the 29-year-old daughter of Alexander Dugin, was in an SUV when the bomb went off. The vehicle belonged to her father and that he had decided at the last minute to travel in another car. Dugina was returning from a cultural festival she had attended with her father," reports Indian Express quoting from Russian media. The BBC reports that Russian federal security service FSB has accused Ukrainian special forces of killing Dugina, while Ukrainian officials have denied any involvement in the explosion. "The FSB told Russian media that a Ukrainian woman had moved to Russia in July alongside her young daughter — but that she was in fact a Ukrainian special services contractor. The woman, it said, rented an apartment in the same building as Dugina for a month, preparing for the attack. In that time, she allegedly followed Dugina through Moscow in a Mini Cooper — for which she used three different licence plates." Russian president Vladimir Putin condemned the killing as a "despicable, cruel crime" and said the young woman "honestly served the people, the Fatherland, and proved by her actions what it means to be a patriot of Russia". Russian news agency Tass, quoting Russian law enforcement official, reports that "those who plotted the murder of Dugina studied her daily routine and habits. When they set off the explosive device, those who remotely exploded the car were certain that Dugina was alone. Her father was not the killers' target." Washington Post says "the incident is already creating a new flash point, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of possible Russian escalations." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Sharif govt's Imran strategy could backfire | | Sharat Sabharwal, former diplomat, writes in Indian Express that Pakistan government's army-backed strategy seems to be to coerce Imran Khan. But this could backfire, making him more popular. | | China must take the first step to restore trust in Sino-Indian ties | | Former NSA Shivshankar Menon writes in South China Morning Post that if trust is truly to be restored between India and China, "it will require demonstrated changes in behaviour over a period of time" and China will have to take the first step. | | Chinese spy ship's docking in Sri Lanka highlighted India's insecurities | | Helping Sri Lanka in its hour of need, even as a first responder, does not automatically give India the right to dictate terms or call for "punishment" or "lessons" should things not go New Delhi's way, we argue in Firstpost on the controversy surrounding Chinese spy ship's docking at Hambantota. | | People in Taiwan want status quo, says Yu-Jie Chen | | In an interview to The Hindu, Yu-Jie Chen, assistant research professor at Academia Sinica in Taiwan, says US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's is seen not so much as a genuine trigger point, but as a pretext under which Beijing could launch more drills that it had already planned to carry out around Taiwan. | | To deter China, India and Japan must step up consultations | | Brahma Chellaney, a former adviser to India's National Security Council, writes in Nikkei Asia newspaper that Japan and India should step up consultations with each other against the background of China's designs on Arunachal Pradesh and perhaps even Okinawa… on how they could contribute to shoring up Taiwan's defenses and deterring a Chinese attack. | | US will eventually have to wage a war against China | | Stanford University's Oriana Skylar Mastro and Derek Scissors of American Enterprise Institute argue in Foreign Affairs that China still hasn't reached the peak of its power and to secure its interests in Asia, therefore, the United States must prepare for a war with China, whether tomorrow or two decades down the road. | | At Vostok, India must look China in the eye | | Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (retd) of Takshashila Institution writes in The Print that though India's participation in Vostok 2022 might look incongruous in the light of China's participation, there is room for India to take part as an observer—a status that retains our presence while signalling distance. | | Afghanistan shows limits of China's reach | | Raffaello Pantucci of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, writes in Nikkei Asia that even though China has had unprecedented access to Afghanistan since the fall of its West-backed government, the Taliban has major trust issues with China and Chinese investors. | | Egypt, Saudi Arabia can boost I2U2 framework further | | Mohammed Soliman, non-resident scholar with Middle East Institute's Cyber and Egypt programs, writes on the I2U2 framework (involving Israel, India, the US and the UAE) that Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the two states in West Asia that have both the diplomatic heft and military capacity to transform the I2U2 from a geoeconomic grouping into a true regional security architecture. | | Dugina paid the price for her father's beliefs | | Robin Ashenden, founder and ex-editor of the Central and Eastern European London Review, writes in The Spectator that Aleksandr Dugin's daughter Darya Dugina paid the price for her father's beliefs. | | PODCAST WATCH | | Unpacking Xi Jinping's Global Security Initiative | | In this edition of GMF's China Global podcast, host Bonnie Glaser speaks to Manoj Kewalramani of Takshashila Institution on Chinese president Xi Jinping's proposed a new Global Security Initiative (GSI) and its components, which is heavy on principles and light on concrete details. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
