| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Globetrotter is back after a week's break. We start with the hopeless situation in Afghanistan where the Taliban regime has completed one year of seizing power. We also track Doval's visit to Moscow, the brouhaha over a Chinese spy ship in Sri Lanka, US-China fight over Taiwan and New Delhi's deepening ties with Washington. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Bombings, poverty, failed economy, famine, atrocities against women mark one year of Taliban rule | | August 15 is Independence Day for India. The date in 2022 also marked one year of the Taliban seizing control of Afghanistan. The chaotic and humiliating withdrawal of US combat troops, swift escape of the regime in Kabul it had propelled and the Taliban's coming to power has resulted in winding back all the painstaking progress Afghan society had made in decades, and condemned its people and economy to a mangled, sorry spectacle. NBC News observes, "At least 43% of the population is living on less than one meal a day and 97% of Afghans are expected to be living below the poverty line by the end of this year. Some families have resorted to selling their organs to eat and others have sold their own children in order to survive." Worst hit have been the women. A new report by Amnesty International, called Death in Slow Motion: Women and Girls Under Taliban Rule, released last month, says "the Taliban's brutality toward women in Afghanistan is a 'suffocating crackdown' that goes beyond the widely condemned bans on work and school to include sex slavery, forced marriages, violence, torture, and disappearances… Women detained after protesting for their rights describe horrific treatment, including electrocution, beatings with cables, and being deprived of food, water, and medical care," according to a Foreign Policy article that quotes from the report. And along with serving as a base for transnational terrorist groups, and presiding over a collapsing economy with threat of famine looming large, the Taliban fighters, notes Politico, have also failed in the one area where they possess experience and skill — fighting and armed conflict. The Taliban has not been able to "keep an aggressive insurgency at bay. Islamic State Khorasan, the Islamic State's Afghan branch, has wreaked havoc throughout Afghanistan, waging a guerrilla campaign of bombings, assassinations and suicide attacks that the Taliban has been unable to combat." A grim reminder came this week when a bomb went off at a mosque in Kabul Wednesday during evening prayers, killing at least 21 people and wounding at least 33 others. Associated Press says several children were reported to be among the wounded. As Afghan economy totters, New York Times reports that the Biden administration has "ruled out releasing $3.5 billion in funds held in the US back to Afghanistan's central bank anytime soon" due to security concerns since Al Qaeda's leader Ayman al-Zawahri, who was killed by a US drone strike, had taken refuge in the heart of Kabul apparently with the protection of the Taliban government. Meanwhile, India is gingerly stepping up engagement with the Taliban. Indian Express reports that the Taliban has "asked India to complete the development projects it had started in that country" and has offered security to the Indian mission in Kabul. | | As Sri Lanka allows Chinese spy ship to dock at Hambantota, India gifts aircraft to Colombo | | A debate is raging in India over the docking of a Chinese spy ship in Sri Lankan port. The docking of the Chinese military survey ship Yuan Wang 5 — which analysts describe as a high-tech ship for tracking objects in space — at Colombo's Chinese-built port of Hambantota on Tuesday came amid sustained objections from India which says that the event is deleterious to its internal security. India Today, quoting a "senior Indian Navy officer", reports, "the ship can carry out surveillance of ports in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu from its docking point. The Navy's bases in Kochi, Vizag and Karwar are also under its coverage range. Surveillance of an extended area, covering almost all ports except those along the north Gujarat coast, is possible through this ship," said the report. It added that "one of the conditions laid down by Sri Lanka for the ship to dock at Hambantota was that its tracking equipment be switched off." Sri Lanka had initially asked China to defer the docking, but under intense pressure from Beijing it later reversed the decision, causing security concerns in India. The Guardian quoted Professor Srikanth Kondapalli, dean of the school of international studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, as saying, "the suspicion here in India is that despite Chinese commentators' insistence it is civilian, it may actually have military functions." According to the Pentagon, China's Yuan Wang-class ships are controlled by strategic support forces of the PLA to track ballistic missiles. Sri Lankan president Ranil Wickremesinghe, however, in an interview to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper said "the present ship did not come under the category of military. [It] came under the category of a research ship. That is how [we] permitted the ship to come to Hambantota," according to a report in Hindustan Timnes. That has not placated India's concerns, more so because China seems to be thumbing its nose at India's failure to stall the docking. Indian Express reports that Qi Zhenhong, Beijing's envoy in Sri Lanka, who was present at the Hambantota port during the ship's arrival, on being asked about India's concerns told reporters, "I don't know… Maybe this is life." Despite the internal debate, however, India on Monday gifted Sri Lanka a Dornier Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft to strengthen Colombo's maritime security. | | NSA Doval meets Russian counterpart Patrushev during a two-day visit to Moscow | | Starting Tuesday, India's NSA Ajit Doval went on a two-day, "unannounced" visit to Moscow. According to a report in India Today, Doval "will hold meetings with the Russian leadership, including with his counterpart Nikolai Patrushev" and also "participate in the security meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and to prepare for the SCO Summit to be held in Samarkand in September. Deputy NSA Vikram Misri will be in Uzbekistan on Thursday and Friday to discuss the upcoming SCO summit." The Doval-Patrushev meeting occurred on Wednesday, and both sides discussed a "wide range of issues of bilateral cooperation in the area of security", says Indian Express, quoting a statement issued by Moscow. "A wide range of issues of bilateral cooperation in the area of security, as well as topical problems on the regional and international agenda were discussed. The two sides agreed to continue the dialogue between the two countries' Security Councils, having emphasized the progressive development of the Russian-Indian special and privileged strategic partnership," read the statement. Economic Times reports that "a key item on the agenda of the visit was expectedly defence ties including maintenance and servicing of Russian origin defence equipment in India, besides new projects as outlined at the last annual summit held here. The two sides had concluded a 10-year defence roadmap on that occasion. The two sides are reportedly negotiating leasing of six long range strategic bombers from Russia." | | US, China locked in escalatory spiral as Washington announces trade talks with Taiwan | | US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has long since returned home following her visit to Taiwan, but the embers sparked by the visit are still burning. Since Pelosi left, China surrounded Taiwan, conducted military exercises, fired ballistic missiles over Taiwanese cities, flew jets in Taiwanese airspace, banned more than 100 Taiwanese exports from entering the mainland, and cut off several lines of cooperation with Washington. Not to be deterred, a second US Congressional delegation led by Senator Ed Markey landed in Taiwan Sunday for a two-day visit, testing whether China will react more forcefully than in the past to trips by lower-ranking American lawmakers after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went earlier this month, reports Bloomberg. The delegation met Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen. A release from the Taiwanese president's office said "the president expressed hope to continue strengthening cooperation with the US to jointly uphold prosperity and stability throughout the Indo-Pacific region, and to deepen economic cooperation with international friends who share our democratic values in order to develop more secure supply chains." China reacted with fury, with the China's embassy in Washington saying that the latest congressional visit "once again proves that the U.S. does not want to see stability across the Taiwan Straits and has spared no effort to stir up confrontation between the two sides and interfere in China's internal affairs." Even as the US senators were meeting Tsai Ing-wen, China carried out further drills near Taiwan on Monday and said "the exercises were a stern deterrent to the United States and Taiwan continuing to play political tricks and undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." On Wednesday, "in only its third white paper on Taiwan since 1993 and the first after President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012", China said "it will not 'renounce' the use of military force to bring the self-governed island under its control," reports Hindustan Times. Meanwhile, the US announced on Thursday that Washington and Taiwan have agreed to start trade talks under a new initiative to reach agreements with "economically meaningful outcomes", with a Taiwan official saying China's "economic coercion" would also be discussed. According to Reuters, the office of the US Trade Representative said the two sides had "reached consensus on the negotiating mandate" and it was expected that the first round of talks would take place early this autumn. In reaction, China said that it "firmly opposes" the initiative. | | Indian defence attaché now has unescorted access to Pentagon, says top US defence dept official | | In a measure of the pace and depth of India-US ties, reports emerged this week that "India's defence attaché in Washington has been given unescorted access to the US defence department, a rare privilege granted only to close partners, according to a top American official." At a reception hosted by India's Ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu at India House on Independence Day, US Air Force secretary Frank Kendall, a top official of the US defence department, said that "as of today, the Indian [defence] attaché team now has unescorted access in the Pentagon which is commencement with our close relationship with India's status as a major defence partner". He added, "and if you don't think unescorted access to the Pentagon is a big deal, I can't get into the Pentagon without an escort." Kendall, who worked on India issues during the Obama administration, said it was a desire then to strengthen the bonds in the national security area. "It turns out that India is the country with whom we do more joint exercises than any other country, have a long close relationship and we've been able to build it up and strengthen it over the years as we work together for integrated deterrence in the region and around the world." Meanwhile, on being asked about India increasing its imports of Russian oil and fertilisers and buying the S-400 Russian air defence systems, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, "It is not for me to speak about another country's foreign policy," reports Livemint. The report adds, quoting Price's statement, "but we also recognise, as I was saying just a moment ago, that this is not flipping a light switch," he said on Wednesday. "This is something that, especially for countries that have historical relationships with Russia. Relationships that, as is the case with India, extend back decades, it is going to be a long-term proposition to re-orient foreign policy away from Russia." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Taiwan question is intrinsic to CCP's legitimacy | | On China's furious reaction to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Taipei-based scholar and senior fellow at Indian Foundation Shikha Aggarwal writes in Indian Express that the implications of the visit must be seen in the context of China's national rejuvenation project, the legitimacy of the CCP, and Xi Jinping's personal agenda. | | Time will tell what the real impact is of Pelosi's trip to Taiwan | | Yun Sun, scholar on China at Stimson Center, asks in South China Morning Post that while a major crisis has been averted in the Taiwan Strait this time, what happens next? | | US must walk the talk to meet Chinese threat on Taiwan | | Elbridge Colby, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense and co-founder of The Marathon Initiative, writes in Foreign Affairs that the United States does not seem to be backing up its strong rhetoric with the degree of effort and focus needed to be ready to defeat a Chinese assault on Taiwan. | | One year since US withdrawal, Taliban regime is behaving as expected | | In Project Syndicate, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney writes that one year since the US withdrawal, the "Taliban regime is behaving as expected, turning the country into a breeding ground for international terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and mass migration. There is no justification for attempts by US President Joe Biden's administration to engage with it." | | Why are Sri Lankans so ungrateful to India? | | On Sri Lanka allowing a Chinese spy ship to dock at its Hambantota port despite India's security concerns, Chennai-based policy analyst and commentator N Sathiya Moorthy asks in Firstpost "why are Sri Lankans so ungrateful to India that provided generous support during the early months of the continuing economic and forex crises." | | Struggling Sri Lanka couldn't possibly have denied China's request | | Former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Arun Prakash writes in Indian Express that "given its cordial diplomatic relations, and its economic dependence on China, there could be no plausible reason for Sri Lanka to deny entry for Yuan Wang 5, especially into Hambantota on which China has a 99-year lease." | | India will continue to strengthen ties with Europe | | Jagannath Panda of Sweden-based Institute for Security and Development Policy, in his column for Abu Dhabi-based Trends Research & Advisory, explores whether India would be receptive to NATO's outreach in the Indo Pacific. He writes that New Delhi will continue to strengthen its ties with the European world, while an effective engagement with NATO remains a lesser subject for now. | | Not Chinese, but western debt trap caused Sri Lanka's collapse | | Sri Lankan author Indrajit Samarajiva points out in New York Times that "as much as the West blames Chinese predatory lending, only 10 to 20 percent of Sri Lanka's foreign debt is owed to China. The majority is owed to U.S. and European financial institutions or Western allies like Japan. We died in a largely Western debt trap." | | At 75 years of Independence, India has a sense of optimism about its future | | As India celebrates 75 years of independence, what gives the country greater confidence in articulating an "India First" foreign policy is its growing capabilities and sense of optimism about the future, argues Harsh V Pant, professor at King's College, London, in his column for Livemint. | | The fall of 'Saint Jacinda' is a cautionary tale for woke leaders | | Camilla Tominey of The Daily Telegraph writes on New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Arden's falling popularity that the fall of 'Saint Jacinda' is a cautionary tale for other woke world leaders. | | PODCAST WATCH | | What does China's reaction to Pelosi visit tell us? | | We are listening to this edition of FT's podcast where host Gideon Rachman speaks to Chinese-American academic Minxin Pei about China's reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. What does it tell us about Xi Jinping's leadership as he bids for a third term as president? | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
