| TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES |
| Irate China fires ballistic missiles over Taiwan in high-risk escalation as tensions rise in Taiwan Strait |
| US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan on a high-profile visit, and an angry China is now raining missiles over the island. China deployed scores of planes and fired live missiles near Taiwan on Thursday in its biggest ever drills in the Taiwan Strait, reports Reuters, quoting Chinese broadcaster CCTV to add that multiple firings of conventional missiles in waters off Taiwan were a part of the planned military exercises in six zones set to run until noon on Sunday. The exercises involve activating more than 100 planes, including fighter jets and bombers, and over 10 warships. Five of China's ballistic missiles appear to have landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), leading Japan to "protest strongly through diplomatic channels." The situation is progressively worsening as the Xi Jinping faces fury from an irate public from home who were fed rhetoric about China shooting down Pelosi's airplane if it approaches Taiwanese airspace. China is facing a crisis of credibility, and it may lead Xi to increase the hostility against Taiwan. Things are seemingly moving in that direction with reports coming in on Friday that among the ballistic missiles that China is targeting Taiwan with, as many as four flew over the island's capital, Taipei, in an unprecedented escalation, leading Taiwan to condemn its "evil neighbour". The Joe Biden White House called Beijing's "proactive actions" as "significant escalation". New York Times says Chinese military "drills have put the United States in a delicate position. While the Pentagon wants to protect strength in the region, it is also sensitive to the risk that a military miscalculation near the island could set off an unintended escalation. John Kirby, a national security spokesman, said on Thursday that the Pentagon had ordered its warship, USS Ronald Reagan to "remain on station" in the region, but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait." The person at the centre of it all, Pelosi, met Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida on Friday as part of her tour of Asia and said "we have said from the start that our representation here is not about changing the status quo in Taiwan or the region." China, meanwhile, is upping the rhetoric with Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying in a fiery presser on Thursday accusing the US of making "a malicious provocation first" and claiming that "China has been compelled to act in self-defense." China has also summoned the US envoy, EU diplomats and has warned through its state media that its retaliation "won't be one off". |
| US kills Al-Qaeda leader Zawahiri in Kabul drone strike, Taliban claims ignorance of his presence |
| Even as the global attention remains fixated on the Taiwan Strait the United States in a drone strike killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on July 31 while the ageing terrorist leader, who had a $25 million bounty on his head and helped to coordinate the September 11, 2001, attacks on US soil, stood on a balcony at a safe house in Kabul. Reuters quoted US president Joe Biden, as saying, "now justice has been delivered, and this terrorist leader is no more". The US president said he authorised the strike after months of planning and that no civilians or family members were killed. The CNN, in an article titled 'How Joe Biden and his team decided to kill the world's most wanted terrorist', notes, "the drone strike that killed Zawahiri on his balcony in downtown Kabul was the product of months of highly secret planning by Biden and a tight circle of his senior advisers. Among the preparations was a small-scale model of Zawahiri's safe house, constructed by intelligence officials and placed inside the White House Situation Room for Biden to examine as he debated his options." "The bespectacled, bushy-bearded deputy to Osama bin Laden. But in reality, it was his brains and blood-drenched hands that guided the world's most notorious terrorist movement," says Washington Post in a profile. Meanwhile, four days after Zawahiri was killed in central Kabul, the Taliban regime on Thursday said "it was not aware that the al-Qaeda leader was staying in the Afghan capital" and in their first formal response, strongly condemned the US strike in a statement, warning that "if such action is repeated, the responsibility for any consequences will be on the US." Indian Express reports that in recent videos, Ayman al-Zawahiri spoke on hijab row, and had made bids to recruit in India. |
| Controversy brews over Chinese spy vessel's docking in Sri Lankan port |
| A controversy has been brewing in Sri Lanka over the docking of a Chinese vessel in Hambantota port, that has India expressing its concern and displeasure. Sri Lanka initially denied reports from a Sri Lankan consulting firm that said Yuan Wang 5, a Chinese 'spy vessel', that conducts space tracking, satellite control and research would be in Hambantota for a week. The controversy, however, blew up. India said that it "carefully monitors any developments having a bearing on India's security and economic interests, and takes all necessary measures to safeguard them," and Indian diplomats in Colombo lodged a verbal protest with the Sri Lankan foreign ministry. China chipped in, saying last week that it hoped "relevant parties" would "refrain from interfering with its legitimate maritime activities." Sri Lankan local media reported that the government is in talks with both India and China for "an amicable solution". "Following India's 'clear message' about 'carefully monitoring' the development, Sri Lanka's ministry of defence on July 30 confirmed that the vessel had sought clearance to call at the southern Hambantota Port in August", reports The Hindu, quoting Sri Lankan defence ministry spokesperson, as saying "the vessel will be in Hambantota from August 11 to 17, mainly for replenishment, including fuel". India is obviously not happy. Following Sri Lankan defence ministry's confirmation India "has raised the scheduled visit of a Chinese research vessel to a Sri Lankan port with President Ranil Wickremesinghe," reports The Hindu, adding, "members of Sri Lanka's political opposition on Monday commented on the vessel's scheduled arrival, and urged the government not to "accentuate" India's strategic concerns, especially at a time when Colombo is counting on urgent economic assistance from both New Delhi and Beijing to tide over the island's economic crisis." |
| Pakistan seeks urgent IMF bailout amid deepening economic and political crises |
| Pakistan's economic and political crises are deepening. Let's look at all the developments that happened in a week. Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan's army chief and the nation's most powerful man, last week spoke by phone with US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in what Asia Nikkei in its report calls "a highly unusual move" and appealed to the White House and Treasury Department to push the "IMF to immediately supply nearly $1.2 billion that Pakistan is due to receive under a resumed loan program." The move gives an idea of the mood of desperation in Pakistan which urgently needs a loan from the IMF to stave off financial crisis, but the IMF on Tuesday "conditioned the approval of the $1.2 billion loan tranche in late August with Pakistan's ability to timely secure 'adequate assurances' from friendly countries for more loans to bridge financing gap," reports The Express Tribune, leading Pakistan prime minister Shahbaz Sharif to say that the country has been "economically enslaved" by the IMF. Meanwhile, amid the economic crisis, Pakistan's election commission has announced that it will hold general elections by October, one year ahead of schedule, say reports. Earlier this week on Tuesday, the election commission had ruled that former prime minister Imran Khan's political party received millions of dollars in illegal funds from foreign countries, including the United States, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, and Australia. Following the ruling, Pakistan's ruling alliance on Thursday filed a petition with the election commission, seeking lifetime disqualification of Khan for not disclosing the information, reports Indian Express. |
| India announces $100 million credit line, inks six pacts during Maldives president Solih's visit |
| Maldivian president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih arrived Monday on a four-day official visit to India (August 1-4) this week accompanied by a high-level official and business delegation at the invitation of prime minister Narendra Modi. The visit "came in the wake of New Delhi's growing efforts in maintaining political stability in the Indian ocean region amidst Sri Lanka's geo-political turmoil and Beijing's expanding footprint." Associated Press reports "the two countries inked six agreements to boost cooperation in several areas, including disaster management, cyber security and affordable housing. The two leaders also marked the start of construction on the Greater Male Connectivity Project, a 6.74km-long bridge and causeway funded by India that will connect the nation's capital, Male, to three other islands. Both stressed the importance of close ties between their two countries as vital for peace and stability in the region." Hindustan Times reports that "the Male connectivity projects will be built under India's $100 million grant and $400 million line of Credit. India also extended a $100 million line of credit for development projects in the Maldives. Solih said the 'Maldives-India relationship goes beyond diplomacy. This visit is an affirmation of the close bond between our two countries'." |
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| TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK |
| US must act now to deter China from launching a war against Taiwan |
| Hal Brands and Michael Beckley write in Wall Street Journal that with its global power at a peak and domestic problems mounting, China is likelier than ever before to initiate a war against Taiwan. |
| Nancy Pelosi: Why I'm leading a congressional delegation to Taiwan |
| Before she undertook the trip to Taiwan and set in motion a chain of events, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi explained her decision to visit Taiwan in a Washington Post article that you may read here. |
| China has a range of options to squeeze Taiwan short of war |
| Professor Minxin Pei writes in Bloomberg that China can employ a vast range of gray-zone tactics to pressure the island, most of which Washington will find hard to counter without risking an open conflict. |
| Pelosi trip shows America's incoherent China policy |
| The Economist writes that Pelosi's trip is a symptom of America's incoherent approach to China…a trip designed to convey strength risks instead showing up the Biden administration's confusion and lack of purpose. |
| Xi Jinping missed a great chance to dismiss Pelosi's grandstanding |
| Tom Mitchell writes in Financial Times that China could have dismissed Pelosi as a lame-duck Speaker and ally of an unpopular president engaged in a feeble act of grandstanding, instead Xi's administration has decided to imbue Pelosi's overnight stay in Taipei with a historical import greater than it deserved. |
| How Ukraine shaped Xi Jinping's strategy |
| Bonny Lin and Jude Blanchette write in Foreign Affairs on how the Ukraine War Has Changed Beijing's Strategy. |
| China's covert scheming in Nepal |
| Jayadeva Ranade of Centre for China Analysis and Strategy writes in The Tribune about China's scheming and conniving strategies in Nepal to undermine India and US interests. |
| Pakistan has a domestic narrative problem |
| Husain Haqqani, former Pakistan's ambassador to the US, writes in Foreign Policy that years of propaganda have given Pakistanis an unrealistic understanding of what ails their country. |
| Days of Pakistan's geopolitical rent-seeking is over |
| Uzair M Younus writes that Pakistan's ruling elite should realise that the world has changed; Pakistan is no more a force multiplier and has to recalibrate its value proposition to the world. |
| Sri Lanka's decision-makers remain in China's grip |
| Sudha Ramachandran writes in The Diplomat that despite New Delhi's objections, Colombo has permitted a Chinese "research and survey" ship to dock at Hambantota Port, which goes to show that Sri Lanka's decision-makers remain in China's grip. |
| PODCAST WATCH |
| US needs to take a long-term view of China |
| Worth listening to the Bloomberg podcast where Kishore Mahbubani of the Asia Research Institute, spoke to hosts Kailey Leinz and Guy Johnson to discuss Nancy Pelosi's trip t o Taiwan. He said Americans need to take a long term view of China. |
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