| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | This edition kicks off with the biggest development in India's neighbourhood, the arrest of former Pakistan PM Imran Khan that triggered a meltdown among his supporters who took to the streets and spared not even the feared military (pic above). While Khan got bail, for now, the crisis is far from over. We also track Biden's invitation to Modi, Jaishankar's comments in Dhaka, presidential elections in Türkiye and Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Imran gets bail after his arrest triggers violent protests in Pakistan; former PM targets army chief Munir | | Despite week after week of riveting, high-octane theatrics, the Imran Khan saga in Pakistan is nowhere near the denouement. Two days after Imran Khan was arrested by Pakistan's federal anti-corruption agency from the Islamabad high court premises on Tuesday that sparked deadly riots across the country and resulted in the death of eight people, a three-member bench of the country's Supreme Court led by chief justice Umar Ata Bandial Thursday declared that the former prime minister and PTI chief's arrest was "illegal" and ordered him to be released. According to The Hindu, the verdict comes a day after a strongly worded statement by Pakistan's military that said "May 9 would go down in history as a 'dark chapter' due to the 'organised attacks on Army properties and installations and anti-Army slogans' (by Imran supporters)", and that a 'power-hungry group wrapped in political garb' had done to the country what the country's enemies had failed to do since its inception." Reuters reports that Khan's arrest resulted in violent clashes and pitched battle Tuesday between Khan's supporters and the law enforcement. His supporters stormed military establishments, set ablaze a state broadcaster building, smashed buses, ransacked a top army official's house and attacked other assets, leading to nearly 2,000 arrests and the army being deployed. On Friday, judges granted Khan protected bail, meaning he cannot be re-arrested on those charges for two weeks. The court also ordered he could not be arrested on any charges filed after last Tuesday until 17 May, reports BBC. Khan, who returned to his Lahore residence, blamed the army chief for his 'abduction' on May 9 and distanced himself from violence that took place in several cities after his arrest, reports Dawn. "He expressed these views while having brief conversation with media persons on the premises of Islamabad High Court. Talking to BBC correspondent Caroline Davies during a break time, Khan said: 'It's not the security agencies. It's one man, the army chief. There is no democracy in the army. The army is getting maligned with what is happening,' he replied when asked about the impression that security agencies were against him whereas the judiciary was favouring him." Khan's comments on the army chief, however, were criticized as "disgusting" by prime minister Shehbaz Sharif who said that Khan's remarks were "yet another proof of his disgusting mentality against the Pakistan Army". Indian Express says that the crisis in Pakistan is a reflection of Khan's battle with army chief Munir. | | Biden invites Modi for a state visit to White House in June as US, India firm up ties and partnership | | US president Joe Biden will host prime minister Narendra Modi in a state visit at the White House in Washington DC next month. The visit has been in the works for months, with Indian officials working out the logistics for Modi's first state visit during the Biden administration, reports The Hindu. The White House readout said the visit will include "a state dinner on June 22, 2023. The upcoming visit will affirm the deep and close partnership between the United States and India and the warm bonds of family and friendship that link Americans and Indians together. The visit will strengthen our two countries' shared commitment to a free, open, prosperous, and secure Indo-Pacific and our shared resolve to elevate our strategic technology partnership, including in defense, clean energy, and space." The release by India's ministry of external affairs stated: "Modi and Biden will also explore ways to strengthen India-US collaboration in pluri-lateral and multilateral fora, including in the G20. They would reflect on their shared vision for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific and discuss opportunities to expand and consolidate the Quad engagement." News emerged on Saturday that "senior military commanders from Quad member countries, including India's chief of defence staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan, will meet in Sunnylands in California to attend a high-profile meeting on Indo-Pacific Security on May 15-17 in a clear indication that the grouping is now taking security cooperation to the next level before the Quad Summit in Sydney on May 24," according to Hindustan Times. The White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, during a briefing, called the US-India partnership "an important relationship as we speak about the Indo-Pacific, as we talk about how to move forward in that region. And so the President (Biden) believes this is an important relationship that we need to continue and build on." | | Jaishankar takes aim at China from Dhaka at the 6th Indian Ocean conference | | External affairs minister S Jaishankar on Friday said when nations disregard their legal obligations or violate long-standing agreements, the damage done to "trust and confidence is immense", in comments seemingly directed at China at a conference where it has the 'observer' status. Jaishankar was addressing the 6th Indian Ocean Conference in Dhaka, Bangladesh, where representatives from 25 Indian Ocean nations discussed regional economic growth, cooperation and security at the Indian Ocean on Friday. China is attending the two-day conference as an observer, while Myanmar was not invited because of continuing violence following its military's seizure of power. Jaishankar said "when nations disregard their legal obligations or violate long-standing agreements, as we have seen, the damage to trust and confidence is immense. It is therefore essential that all of us take the long view of our cooperation, rather than a tactical one of our interests." He also raised the issue of unsustainable debt, an issue that is plaguing nearly all the nations in the region who have welcomed Chinese investments. "A significant shared concern through the Indian Ocean is that of unsustainable debt generated by unviable projects. There are lessons from the last two decades that we ignore at our peril. If we encourage opaque lending practices, exorbitant ventures and price points that are unrelated to the market, these are bound to bite us back, sooner rather than later. Especially so when sovereign guarantees have been proffered, not always with due diligence. Many of us in the region are today confronting the consequences of our past choices. This is time to reflect and reform, not one to repeat and reiterate." The Hindu reports that during his Dhaka visit, Jaishankar had called on Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina "discussed issues of mutual interests while expressing satisfaction at the level of bilateral cooperation in various fields." | | Erdogan faces a tough contest to remain in power as Türkiye votes in presidential elections | | President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led Turkey (Türkiye) for two decades, but if pollsters are to be believed, his reign may finally come to an end as Türkiye goes into presidential elections this Sunday. According to NPR, "Erdogan has lost support as his country is mired in an economic crisis and his government faces criticism for its slow response to the massive damage from earthquakes in February. Polls show a tight race between Erdogan and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo) of the Republican People's Party (CHP). If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote on Sunday, there will be a second round May 28. At stake is the direction of a pivotal country of 85 million people — and, some argue, the fate of its democracy." Reuters says many Turks, including a new generation of voters, are yearning for change. They have been battered by crippling inflation, a collapsing lira and a sharp decline in living standards, compounded by the devastating February earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people and left millions homeless. Polls suggest Kilicdaroglu has an edge but that Erdogan could yet prevail given his strong support base in the devout working-class Anatolian heartland. New York Times says "Erdogan has eroded democratic institutions, stocking the judiciary with loyalists and limiting free expression. His main challenger, Kilicdaroglu, has vowed to restore democracy if he wins." And yet there are always two sides to a story. Columnist Burhanettin Duran, writing in Daily Sabah, a Turkish media outlet, argues that "it is time to challenge the western media narrative on Türkiye." He writes, "having identified the May 14 elections as the most important contest of 2023, the Western media was not actually expected to promote president Erdoğan. After all, those folks absolutely dislike the Turkish leader and his unwavering commitment to defending Turkish interests because they yearn for a "docile" Türkiye… It goes without saying that the potential victory of Kılıçdaroğlu would play into the hands of Western governments. Kılıçdaroğlu has already pledged to lock the S-400 air defense system in a hangar, assume a pro-Western stance in relations with Russia, comply with NATO's demands and develop a different policy toward the militants of the PKK's Syrian branch, YPG, in northern Syria – all of which would suit the West quite well." | | Ukraine makes battlefield gains in Bakhmut as Russians 'pull back'; UK delivers long-range missiles to Kyiv | | Fuelling speculation of an Ukrainian counter offensive, western media outlets are reporting that Ukraine is making strategic gains in Russian strongholds. Bloomberg reports, "Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops back to regain territory in the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut," citing "officials in Kyiv". The report said "Russia's defense ministry acknowledged a flurry of attacks along the frontline. Russian troops around Bakhmut, which has been besieged in brutal running battles for almost a year, pulled back as much as 1.5 kilometers (0.9 miles) in some areas in a surge of clashes over the last 24 hours. Russia's Defense Ministry said its troops had withdrawn close to a reservoir north of Bakhmut to set up a new defensive line with more "favorable conditions." Earlier, it said forces had repelled Ukrainian attacks involving some 1,000 troops and as many as 40 tanks along a 95-kilometer stretch of frontline near Soledar, a city some 15 kilometers northeast of Bakhmut." "The head of Russia's private Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin, however, on Friday said Moscow's regular army was fleeing its positions near the eastern Ukraine hotspot town of Bakhmut. "The units of the defense ministry simply went fleeing from the flanks" of Bakhmut, Prigozhin said, adding that "the flanks are failing, the front is collapsing" in that area. He also accused Moscow's military leadership of downplaying the situation around the embattled Ukrainian town," reports DW. Financial Times reports that "Russia's defence ministry has claimed a long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive had begun, pointing to intensifying attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past 48 hours. The ministry on Friday said Ukraine had launched 26 assaults along a 60-mile stretch of the frontline near Bakhmut and the nearby town of Soledar, involving more than a thousand troops and up to 40 tanks. It conceded that Russian troops had redeployed to "more advantageous" positions in some locations but said it had stopped Ukrainian forces from making any breakthroughs. Kyiv denied that its counter-offensive was under way, saying it was still conducting defensive operations in an area that has featured fierce fighting for several months." Meanwhile, "the United Kingdom has delivered multiple 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine, giving the nation a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Pakistan has never been as polarized as it is today | | The chaotic scenes in Pakistan following the arrest of Imran Khan are just the tip of the iceberg, Tilak Devasher writes in Hindustan Times. | | Army can't remain unaffected by Pakistan's divisions | | Husain Haqqani writes in India Today that speculation of divisions among Pakistan army's officer corps notwithstanding, there is no doubt that the chain of command and discipline within the army will endure. But at a time of intense polarisation in Pakistani society, the army cannot remain unaffected by intense divisions among Pakistanis. | | Imran started the rot but don't blame him alone | | Pervez Hoodbhoy writes in Pakistan-based Dawn newspaper that contrary to what some may want to believe, Pakistan's pathological condition is not one man's fault and it didn't develop suddenly. | | No good options for Pakistan in Imran Khan saga | | Pakistan has a choice between an Islamic populist with autocratic tendencies, and a corrupt, politicised military, which is just as clueless on policy as it is determined to remain in power, writes Avinash Paliwal in Indian Express. | | What does China as a broker in West Asia mean to India? | | What does China as peacemaker between Saudi Arabia and Iran mean to India? Jagannath Panda explores the question in a piece published by Institute for Security and Development Policy. | | China has rushed in to fill the void in post-American Middle East | | For the first time in decades, the United States has to compete for influence in the Middle East rather than taking its primacy for granted. Washington might even have to get used to a growing role for China, writes Max Boot in Washington Post. | | Why China is tamping down on 'Taiwan war' hype | | China's messaging machine is playing down the 'Taiwan war' hype as Wolf-warrior propaganda proves a little too effective or comfort, writes Katsuji Nakazawa in Nikkei Asia. | | India's limited agenda has become even more difficult to pursue at SCO | | With India's ties with China and Pakistan under strain, it is difficult for New Delhi to pursue whatever limited agenda it may have with the SCO, argues Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan in The Diplomat. | | Orthodoxies outside government are fixated on US-India divergences | | Compatibility of US-India interests is being measured using extreme benchmarks by orthodoxies outside the govt at a time when Washington & New Delhi are betting on each other, Ashok Malik writes in Economic Times. | | If Erdogan loses, Washington and Brussels should seize opportunity | | If the Opposition wins in Türkiye, Washington and Brussels should be prepared to seize the opportunity, writes Alper Coşkun for Carnegie. | | PODCAST | | Decoding the Pakistan crisis | | We recommend this edition of ANI Podcast with Smita Prakash where the host speaks to Tilak Devasher, author of four widely acclaimed books on Pakistan and a member of the National Security Advisory Board and ORF analyst Sushant Sareen on all issues Pakistan. | | | | Copyright © 2023.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
