Cinema News: Welcome to Firstpost's Weekly Foreign Policy Fix

Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world

Welcome to Firstpost's global brief. The Peng Shuai controversy refuses to die down despite China's best efforts and International Olympic Committee's servility before Chinese Communist Party at the cost of further damaging its reputation. Meanwhile, India and China have started talking again, Biden has angered Beijing by inviting Taiwan to democracy summit, a terrible tragedy has occurred in English Channel and Germany finally has a new chancellor after 16 years of Angela Merkel.

TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES

IOC accused of promoting Chinese propaganda as Peng Shuai case refuses to fade away

The Peng Shuai incident is a microcosm of the claustrophobic authoritarian state that Chinese Communist Party has built and paradoxically, the loopholes that are inbuilt within great wall of asphyxiation. By now, readers of the newsletter are well aware of the incident. But I'll borrow Financial Times's summary of this week's developments: "Peng Shuai made an allegation of sexual assault against a senior Communist party leader, disappeared for weeks, then reappeared in a series of videos released by state media. Her case has shown the dilemmas of dealing with a country that has a vast and growing market, but scant respect for human rights, freedom of expression or the rule of law. One international sporting body — the Women's Tennis Association — handled its dilemma well. Another — the International Olympic Committee — did not." China wouldn't normally have bothered with global pressure on Peng. But the upcoming Winter Olympics in 2022 puts hosts Beijing in a spot. It initially tried to ignore the controversy that diminished the aura of the Communist Party, then released a series of photos and video clips through its state media that raised more questions than answers. As James Palmer writes in his China Brief newsletter for Foreign Policy, "the crudeness and obviousness of the propaganda was in itself an exertion of power. This is a strategy commonly deployed against dissidents, who are, for example, forced to write letters to family claiming they are fine and grateful to the party." While a gaggle of tennis's biggest stars have raised their voices against Peng's disappearance the governing body of women's tennis, the WTA, has taken a commendable stance. It has called for Peng's allegations to be properly investigated because they are "bigger than the business" and has threatened to pull out of China, the IOC has walked the other way, and appears determined to brush the controversy under the carpet so as not to jeopardize its multi-billion dollar business in China. Its president, Thomas Bach, claimed to have held a 30-minute conversation with via video call with Peng from Beijing, and released a statement (not the video) claiming that Peng has reassured them that she was well and thanked them for their concern — while asking for privacy. The IOC offered few details of the conversation and no follow-up, leading to accusations that it is complicit in China's silencing of Peng. The IOC faced a backlash over its conduct with the Human Rights Watch group asking the sport's governing body not to promote Chinese propaganda. The WTA has dismissed IOC's video call, saying that it does not address concerns. The IOC's conduct pointed to its long history of being servile before dictatorial regimes to safeguard economic interests. Meanwhile, the man at the centre of the controversy, former Communist Party vice president Zhang Gaoli has disappeared from the scene — an easy feat in China — and Beijing has accused the West of "hyping up" the issue.

China 'protests' General Rawat's comments, EAM says onus on Beijing to improve ties

A month after the 13th round of Corps Commander level talks ended in failure and hardening of postures on both sides, India and China on November 18 held the 23rd meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) through video-conference where the diplomats agreed on the "need to find an early resolution to the remaining issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh while fully abiding by bilateral agreements and protocols so as to restore peace and tranquility". The subtle difference in the respective readouts reflected the underlying ongoing tension. While the MEA statement called for continuing "discussions to resolve the remaining issues along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh" and continuing to "ensure a stable ground situation and avoid any untoward incident", the Chinese foreign ministry called for "further easing the situation in the border area and strive to switch from emergency response to normalized management and control as soon as possible." There was no acknowledgement of pending issues. Meanwhile, China's military said on Thursday it had lodged "solemn representations" with India and expressed its "firm opposition" to Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat's comments earlier this month on China being the biggest security threat to India and mutual suspicion rising between the two sides. PLA's senior colonel Wu Qian said the comments "incite geopolitical confrontation" and were "irresponsible and dangerous", according to a report in The Hindu. China's aggression along the LAC, killing of Indian soldiers, provocative military exercises near the border with India, building of settlements along LAC aren't the problem, calling out these subversive tactics are. Meanwhile, India's external affairs minister S Jaishankar in an event in Singapore on Friday that "India and China were going through a 'particularly bad patch' in their ties because Beijing had taken a set of actions in violation of agreements for which it still did not have a 'credible explanation' and it was for the Chinese leadership to answer where they wanted to take the bilateral relationship."

Biden invites India among 110 countries for democracy summit, China fumes at Taiwan's inclusion

US president Joe Biden has invited 110 countries to a virtual summit on democracy on December 9-10. The full list of the invitees posted by the US Department of State is here. The summit expectedly excluded China, Turkey, and Russia, but also surprisingly Bangladesh and Sri Lanka from the Indian subcontinent while Pakistan — a weak and hybrid democracy at best — also getting included. Biden's most controversial decision for the first-of-its-kind gathering, however, is the move to invite Taiwan, that China considers as its renegade province. Taiwan's foreign ministry said the government would be represented by digital minister Audrey Tang and Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's de facto ambassador in Washington. Axios reports that "in addition to world leaders, Biden will convene members of civil society and the private sector for an array of events focused on "designing concrete commitments and deliverables for the summit." China is predictably furious. Not so much with its exclusion as the inclusion of Taiwan, with China's foreign ministry saying it is "firmly opposed" to the invite and that "US actions only go to show democracy is just a cover and a tool for it to advance its geopolitical objectives, oppress other countries, divide the world and serve its own interests." It seems the goodwill generated at the Biden-Xi summit was short-lived. China's wolf warrior state media, Global Times, said "the Joe Biden administration is turning the so-called summit for democracy into yet another small-sized ideology-driven clique to contain China." Bonnie Glaser of the think tank German Marshall Fund told Wall Street Journal that the inclusion of Taiwan doesn't establish a precedent for treatment of Taiwan because "Taiwan will not be referred to as a country, its president will not participate."

27 dead as migrant boat capsizes off French coast in English Channel; Britain, France trade blame

In a terrible tragedy reflective of the true nature of the migrant crisis facing Europe, at least 27 people were drowned in frigid waters off the coast of France on Wednesday, after a boat carrying migrants trying to reach Britain capsized in the English Channel. New York Times report cited Gérald Darmanin, France's interior minister, as saying that the dead, including five women and a little girl, were part of a group whose "extremely fragile" inflatable boat was found completely deflated by rescuers. To put things in perspective, since the beginning of the year, there have been 47,000 attempts to cross the Channel and 7,800 migrants had been saved from shipwrecks, according to French officials. BBC says this was the biggest loss of life in the Channel The tragedy unfortunately opened another front for bickering between England and France as politicians from both nations traded blames. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was "shocked and appalled" by the deaths and called on France to do more to deter people from attempting the crossing, while French President Emmanuel Macron said Britain needed to stop politicising the issue for domestic gain, while his interior minister, Gerald Darmanin, said Britain too had to be a part of the answer. French media outlet France24 reports that five suspected traffickers have been arrested for being directly linked to the doomed crossing, while a fifth is suspected of buying inflatable boats for the crossing. French interior minister Darmanin said that only two survivors, an Iraqi and Somali, had been found and they were recovering from extreme hypothermia and would eventually be questioned. Washington Post reports that among those who died were pregnant women and children.

Olaf Scholz seals coalition deal to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor

After 16 years of Angela Merkel, Germany will finally have a new chancellor in Olaf Scholz, who has managed to form an unlikely coalition after two months of intense negotiations. His center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) finalized a deal with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) on Wednesday to form a new governing coalition after two months of intense negotiations after the SPD won an astonishing comeback victory in Germany's elections, narrowly defeating the conservative bloc that had led the government for 16 years under Merkel, reports Axios. In its profile, Who is Olaf Scholz? New York Times observes, "Scholz not only sounded like the outgoing conservative chancellor, he perfected the art of embodying her aura of stability and calm to the point of holding his hands together in her signature diamond shape. From temperament and political style all the way down to facial expression Scholz now channels Merkel. If Scholz was a woman he would wear pantsuits." Financial Times observes that Scholz, less than two years ago, "was licking his wounds after the most bruising defeat in his long career — losing to two little-known left-wingers in the contest to lead Germany's Social Democrats (SPD). His dream of one day becoming his country's chancellor had been dealt a near-fatal blow. But on Wednesday he sealed one of the most remarkable comebacks in German politics". German media outlet DW reports that the 178-page 'coalition agreement' worked out by the incoming coalition government gives the greenlight to social renewal. Called 'Dare to Make More Progress', it promises to focus on curbing another brutal wave of COVID-19. New infections are again rising to dizzying heights in Germany and more than 100,000 people have already died of the virus. The development that is sure to catch immediate global attention is that the coalition is already sounding tougher on China, in a marked deviation of Merkel's appeasement policy. South China Morning Post points out that "the coalition agreement text contains more than a dozen references to China, and for the first time mentions human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the erosion of rights in Hong Kong, and the situation involving Taiwan." It didn't take long to elicit a response from China that warned the upcoming government not to meddle in its "internal affairs".

TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK

Move Olympics away from Beijing for Peng Shuai's sake, says NBA star Kanter

American professional basketball player Enes Kanter, who plays for Boston Celtics in NBA league, writes in New York Times that the global sports community must pressurize the IOC to move the 2022 Winter Olympics away from Beijing. He writes, "Athletes can play a profound role in helping turn the tide toward a more safe and free world. History has shown what is possible. Bill Russell stood up against racial injustice. Muhammad Ali protested the Vietnam War. Arthur Ashe spoke out against apartheid in South Africa… All the gold medals in the world aren't worth selling your values and your principles to the Chinese Communist Party."

New Delhi's silence around China's squatting on Indian territory is a double-edged sword

Kunal Singh, PhD candidate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, writes in Hindustan Times that the Modi government's decision to maintain silence on PLA's squatting on Indian territories may buy more room for negotiation. Military mobilisation, in place of public threats, may even achieve the effect of demonstrating resolve. However, neither of these benefits completely takes away from the imperative of a democratically-elected government being transparent."

Xi came out unambiguously on top in meeting with Biden

Former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal writes in News18 on the Biden-Xi meet. He argues that Xi Jinping "wanted to demonstrate that he spoke to Joe Biden from a position of confidence and strength… and placed the ball squarely in Biden's court for resolving differences, spelt out to him the principles that the US must adhere to for stabilising the ties. There was no acceptance that China is answerable in any way for the tensions that have arisen. It is all America's fault and it is for America to redress the situation. It is Emperor Xi of the Middle Kingdom speaking to a humbled America."

Lithuania is showing the way on how tackle the bully, China

Vice president of ORF Gautam Chikermane writes that while the European Union biggies are bending over backwards to accommodate the CCP, ignoring human rights issues and labour camps in China, the tiny nation of Lithuania is punching way above its weight and has set a benchmark that the rest of the European Union (EU) must support and follow.

China's growing naval footprint in Indian Ocean will profoundly affect India's security

C Raja Mohan of Singapore National University writes in Indian Express China's rapid acquiring of foreign military bases and its inevitable permanent naval presence in the Indian Ocean will profoundly alter India's security environment.

Russia, India must enhance involvement in Southeast Asian region

Don McLain Gill, resident fellow at the International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC), in his analysis of India-Russia ties in The Diplomat, writes that the evolving partnership between Russia and India can be highly beneficial for both countries. While Russia's strategic engagements in Southeast Asia are mostly concentrated in Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos, India's broader reach can complement the scope of their partnership.

Xi Jinping, the man behind the myth

Michael Sheridan, who was Far East correspondent of The Sunday Times and has an acclaimed book, The Gate to China: A New History of the People's Republic and Hong Kong, to his credit, has painted an engaging sketch of Xi Jinping, the man behind CCP's carefully curated myth of world's most powerful man.

China's civil and military leaders tend to underestimate India's resolve

Maroof Raza, a noted commentator on India's security challenges, has an upcoming book called Contested Lands: India, China and the Boundary Dispute'. In an excerpt reproduced in Firstpost, Raza writes, "by hanging on to their experience of the 1962 conflict, China's civil and military leaders do tend to ignore that much has changed since then. That '2020 wasn't 1962'. India's leadership, conscious of the lessons learnt from 1962, is determined to defend India's territorial frontiers with deliberate action that may be perceived as intimidating by China."

Concerns that China will consider a nuclear first strike are overblown

Abraham Denmark of Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and professor Caitlin Talmadge of Georgetown University write in Foreign Affairs that "concerns that China's leaders would consider a nuclear first strike are overblown. This is not because of China's NFU policy. Rather, it is because no matter how many silos or airfields Beijing may hope to destroy, Chinese strategists know that their country would, at a minimum, still be vulnerable to the U.S. Navy's 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, each of which carry up to 20 ballistic missiles."

Indians use western social media tools but don't get transformed by those

Vinay Sitapati, professor of political science at Ashoka University, explains in Foreign Affairs why grafting of an elitist experimentation by drafters of Indian Constitution onto a centuries-old civilization failed in due course. His assumptions on the underlying cause of Narendra Modi's popularity, however, are erroneous.

PODCAST WATCH

Why S-400 system is a game-changer for India

We recommend this edition of 'The Gist', the podcast of Stratnews Global, where Lt Gen PR Shankar (Retd), former Director General of Artillery in the Indian Army and currently Professor of Practice at the Aerospace Department at IIT Madras, speaks to host Amitabh Revi on why the Russian S-400 missile defence system, that will shortly arrive in India, are a 'game changer'.