| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Welcome to Firstpost's global brief. This has been such an eventful week that we are highlighting seven developments of note, instead of our regular five. We start with India-hosted NSA talks on Afghanistan. The picture you see above is that of India's NSA Ajit Doval at the table with his counterparts. We also cover Pakistan and China's one-upmanship, Imran Khan's ceasefire deal with terrorist outfit TTP, Pentagon report on China that has given rise to a row in India, Kishida's reelection as Japan's PM and Xi Jinping's rewriting of history to all but seal a norm-breaking third term. | | TOP SEVEN NEWS UPDATES | | India hosts meeting of NSAs on Afghanistan, signals that it won't remain a marginal player | | India showed that it is not ready to remain a mute spectator as other regional actors shuffle the power cards post US withdrawal and Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan. Keen to protect its considerable stakes in the war-torn nation that is staring at a bleak winter and is in urgent need of global humanitarian aid, India on Wednesday held the 'Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan'. It was chaired by NSA Ajit Doval and attended by NSAs from eight regional nations — Russia, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The Delhi Declaration called for "cooperation against radicalisation, extremism and drug trafficking. You can read MEA's Delhi Declaration here. They also sought an inclusive government in Afghanistan with representation from "major ethno-political forces", reports Indian Express. The report also adds that the NSAs also met prime minister Narendra Modi, who emphasized "four aspects that countries in the region need to focus on: The need for an inclusive government; a zero-tolerance stance about Afghan territory being used by terrorist groups; a strategy to counter trafficking of drugs and arms from Afghanistan; and addressing the increasingly critical humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan." The Taliban didn't send a representative, nor were they invited but they reacted positively to the development. Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen told News18: "Right now, we want the economic projects in the country to complete and new projects to start. We also want job opportunities for our people. So we agree with what has been said (at the NSA-level meeting)." In a recorded statement, another Taliban spokesperson, Zabiullah Mujahid, said: "Though we are not present in this conference, we firmly believe that this conference is in the better interest of Afghanistan…" A sulking Pakistan boycotted the meeting, saying "a spoiler can't be a peacemaker", and its iron brother China, too, declined India's invite ostensibly due to "scheduling issues". Why did India host the NSA's meeting on Afghanistan? Indian Express has a good explainer. The Hindu observed that "NSA meeting in Delhi is a pitch for India's continuing role in regional security, even if its bilateral relations with Afghanistan are suspended for the moment." | | China attends Pakistan-held parallel talks on Afghanistan a day after snubbing India | | China refused to join the India-hosted talks on Afghanistan citing scheduling issues, but sent a representative to parallel talks hosted by Pakistan a day after, indicating a degree of choreography by the 'iron brothers' to minimize India's influence in Afghanistan. A day after India held 'Delhi Regional Security Dialogue', Pakistan hosted the 'Troika Plus' meeting, that was attended by specials envoys from the US, Russia and China. Taliban's foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was also present at Thursday's meeting. Reuters reports that the "so-called Troika Plus group pledged on Thursday to try to ease severe pressure on Afghanistan's banking system as it warned of possible economic collapse and a humanitarian disaster that could fuel a new refugee crisis." Pakistan and China's agenda at the meeting was to pressurize the West to release funds that remains frozen since the Taliban takeover. The West hopes to leverage the funds to force the Taliban into changing its behavior that has so far doubled down on their hardline policies and insist that "the United States and its allies must accept them on their own terms." But Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, however, "warned at the opening of the meeting that Afghanistan is "at the brink of economic collapse" and the international community must urgently resume funding frozen by Western donors since the Taliban took power and provide humanitarian assistance," reports Al Jazeera. China also made a similar demand. | | Imran govt cuts a 'ceasefire' deal with Pakistani Taliban, faces heat from Supreme Court | | Pakistan on Monday declared a nationwide "ceasefire" with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the outlawed terrorist group also known as the Pakistan Taliban. This was agreed upon after weeks-long talks held in Afghanistan between the Imran Khan government and the TTP, reports The Hindu. The report adds that the truce will be observed by both parties for 30 days starting November 9. The TTP seeks to "overthrow the Pakistani state. They had nurtured close ties with al-Qaeda, and had carried out some of the deadliest terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, including the 2014 Peshawar school massacre in which 147 people were killed, most of them students. The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan appeared to have provided a fillip to the TTP, which has carried out a growing number of attacks on Pakistani security forces in recent months", adds the report. New York Times, quoting prime minister Imran Khan, reported that Pakistan "was in talks with some militant groups that were willing to lay down arms in return for amnesty." The report also adds that Afghan Taliban were acting as a mediator though a top Afghan official, Zabihullah Mujahid, denied that." Pakistani newspaper Dawn, however, reports that "no decision had been taken yet to grant amnesty to members of the banned TTP, quoting Pakistan's NSA Moeed Yusuf. Meanwhile, adding a twist to proceedings, Pakistan's Supreme Court took the Imran Khan government to task for holding talks with TTP. A three-judge bench headed by chief justice Gulzar Ahmed summoned Khan and subjected him to a barrage of questions at a hearing, asking why he was negotiating with the culprits of the massacre of students. | | Pentagon report on Chinese villages along LAC creates controversy in India | | A major report on China released Wednesday by the US Department of Defense (DOD) has said, among other things, that Beijing is "taking incremental and tactical actions to press its claims at the LAC (with India). Sometime in 2020, the PRC built a large 100-home civilian village inside disputed territory between the PRC's Tibet Autonomous Region and India's Arunachal Pradesh state in the eastern sector of the LAC." The Pentagon's annual report, called Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China and addressed to US Congress, also says China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and may have 1,000 nuclear warheads by the end of the decade as it aims to surpass US global influence by the middle of the 21st century, says CNN. The bit on India has expectedly kicked off a controversy, forcing the ministry of external affairs on Thursday to clarify that "India has neither accepted the illegal occupation of Indian territory by China nor China's unjustified claims. China has undertaken construction activities in the past several years along the border areas, including in the areas that it has illegally occupied over decades. India has neither accepted such illegal occupation of our territory nor has it accepted the unjustified Chinese claims." The village in question on the banks of River Tsari Chu is on 'disputed territory' under Beijing's control for over 60 years, reports Times of India. At an event on Thursday, India's Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat said "They are building this infrastructure and these so-called villages are well within their side of the LAC. They have not transgressed anywhere on our perception of the LAC. There are different perceptions." Some news reports have interpreted MEA and General Rawat's comments as "contradictory", but General Rawat's comments seemed to be buttressing MEA's statement in terms of the areas that are claimed by India but are under Chinese control that India considers as "illegal". | | China delivers its most advanced warship to Pakistan, sends a message to India | | China has long used its client state Pakistan to balance India in South Asia. On Monday, the Chinese Navy delivered to Pakistan what has been called "the largest and most advanced warship" China has ever exported, according to a report in South China Morning Post. The Type 054A/P frigate, designed and built by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, is the first of four frigates that China is building for the Pakistan Navy under a deal signed in 2017 and it is equipped with a new combat management system developed by the CSSC, advanced sensors and weapons, said the SCMP report, quoting the shipbuilder. According to The Hindu, "Pakistan's envoy to China, Moin Ul Haque, told the Communist Party-run newspaper Global Times on Tuesday that the commissioning of the frigate 'in the context of the overall security paradigm of the region' would 'strengthen Pakistan Navy's capabilities to respond to maritime challenges to ensure seaward defence, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region'." Firstpost has a report on 'How Indian Navy stacks up after China delivers most advanced warship to Pakistan', and it observes that "India has 285 naval warships while Pakistan has only 100 ships. Also, while India has 17 submarines (16 diesel-powered and 1 nuclear-powered), Pakistan has only nine diesel-powered submarines." | | Kishida reelected as Japan's PM after winning polls, appoints pro-China figure as foreign minister | | Our next development comes from Japan where Fumio Kishida has been reelected as prime minister on Wednesday after his governing party scored a major victory in key parliamentary elections. Following his reelection by parliament on Wednesday, Kishida formed his second Cabinet by keeping all but one of the ministers he appointed when he took office on October 4. And one of his appointments, that of foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, has already kicked off a controversy. "The Harvard-educated English-speaking 60-year-old is seen as a potential future prime minister and heads an association of parliamentarians that promotes relations with China" and is said to have "friendlier stance" towards Beijing, reports Financial Times. But Hayashi, according to a report in Nikkei Asia, "has stood up to his critics, even calling his deep knowledge of China an asset in confronting Japan's powerful neighbor. "We do need somebody who knows China," Hayashi was quoted by the report as saying on a television program on Monday. "We cannot be 'panda huggers,' but in China there is a saying: 'Know your enemy and know yourself, and you can fight a hundred battles without danger'. It's always better to know your counterpart well than not to'." The newspaper has also run a poll on Kishida's popularity and finds that the new PM's cabinet enjoys approval from 61% of the public. | | Xi Jinping gets party to pass a 'landmark resolution' at Sixth Plenum that all but seals a third term | | Last but not the least, one of the most significant developments this week comes from China where a four-day, closed-door meeting of China's top political leaders has come to an end, and the outcome is a ringing endorsement of Xi Jinping's leadership, paving the way for the president to continue unopposed for a norm-breaking third term. That should be formalized next year at the 20th Party Congress. More than 370 full and alternate members of the Central Committee, the party's highest governing body, took part in the sixth plenary session, led by President Xi Jinping in his capacity as general secretary of the Communist Party. As South China Morning Post says, "it is one of the most important political events in the country and a common venue for the party to make consequential announcements." The Sixth Plenum, as it is called hailed Xi "as the creator of a body of 'theories and thoughts' in a historical CCP resolution, putting him on par with party immortals Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. The resolution adopted on Thursday sets the stage for next year's sweeping leadership reshuffle and paves the way for a legacy-defining third term for the president, adds another SCMP report. LA Times points out that "only two leaders of China's ruling CCP leaders have been powerful enough to rewrite the nation's history. On Thursday, Xi became the third. His version of Chinese history is simple: The party is great, glorious and always correct. As long as people follow the party, China will rise to inevitable greatness." The approval of the landmark document was announced in a communique Thursday, the official Xinhua News Agency said, the English translation of which is available here. | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | India is expanding menu of options on Afghanistan | | On the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue hosted by India and attended by NSAs of eight regional nations, ORF senior fellow Sushant Sareen writes in News18 that "by throwing its hat in the ring, India is signalling that she isn't going to just roll over and play dead after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan… India will use her diplomatic heft, and bring to bear all her equities and influence with regional players to regain agency in Afghanistan, if not directly, then through its partners." | | India's interests on Afghanistan converge with those of Russia, Iran and central Asia | | On the India-hosted NSA-level talks on Afghanistan, Harsh V Pant, head of strategic studies programme at ORF, writes in Hindustan Times, "India's leadership will be essential in sustaining regional cooperation. India is as much a Eurasian power as an Indo-Pacific one. While global geopolitics may have evolved, regionally, New Delhi's interests in and around Afghanistan converge significantly with those of Russia, Iran and Central Asia." | | India's nuclear liability law is harming its own interests | | Indrani Bagchi, diplomatic editor at Times of India, argues that India's Civil Nuclear Liability Law, passed in 2010, has not only spooked foreign nuclear suppliers but has put the locks on Indian nuclear supplier companies too. She writes that the problem, as always, lies in politics and "competitive nationalism". "The Indian government recently opened up the space sector to the private sector and innovation" and must "find a fix in its nuclear liability law that protects sovereignty but enables other countries to build interests in India's nuclear power industry." | | Three steps towards an integrated Eurasian policy for India | | C Raja Mohan, director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, writes in Indian Express that India must move towards an integrated Eurasian policy and such a policy must have three elements — greater engagement with both the EU and NATO, intensification of dialogue on Eurasian security with Russia and substantive collaboration with both Persia and Arabia. | | China is facing a severe economic slowdown and Xi's response so far has been political | | In Foreign Affairs magazine, Rhodium Group (research firm) founder Daniel H. Rosen writes in Foreign Affairs that Xi Jinping doesn't have too much time to tinker with Chinese economic model because "events in the past months demonstrate how the clock is running down… A severe economic slowdown has become a near-term worry, not a distant one. And the most recent responses to mounting threats are not turning a new page: the CCP's moves in the past few months consisted of political campaigns rather than acknowledgments of the financial and technical reform the country needs to restore economic efficiency." | | Constant raging has decreased the effectiveness of China's anger | | Democracies are no longer as worried as they once were about offending a fragile Beijing, argues Chris Horton, a Taiwan-based journalist in The Atlantic. He writes, "Where the word Beijing once conjured the image of a confident, rising power, today it represents a frowning, finger-pointing, never-erring crank, its constant stream of vitriol diminishing the effectiveness of Chinese anger. One of the implications of this hyperinflation of hurt feelings has been the effective removal of the deterrent against democracies' improving their unofficial relations with Taiwan. After all, if most moves are likely to anger Beijing, why hold back from any of them? | | Australia demonstrates that China's bark is worse than its bite | | On China's bullying of Australia, Jeffrey Wilson of the Perth USAsia Centre writes in Foreign Policy that "Australia's experience offers broader lessons on the strategic implications of decoupling from China. First, governments can no longer count on separating their economic and political relationships with China; difficulties on the political side will quickly be met with economic threats. Second, Australia demonstrates that China's bark is worse than its bite." | | On invading Taiwan, China has a variety of options to choose from | | Alessio Patalano, professor at King's College, London, asks in The Spectator whether China is about to invade Taiwan. The author writes, "short of an amphibious assault on the island, there are a variety of options open to China. It might try to weaken the Taiwanese economy, isolate Taiwan militarily, or break its citizens' will to resist. China's increased military activities around Taiwan are being used for tactical purposes. With every incursion, China's air force probes Taiwan's defence systems and gathers precious information." | | A visit to India in near term would be a good strategy for Japan's new PM Kishida | | Titli Basu, associate fellow at MP-Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, previews India-Japan relations under new Japanese PM Fumio Kishida for The Diplomat. She writes, "as Japan entrusts Kishida with the responsibility to lead, India is enthused to build on the Vision 2025, and most importantly deliver on the post-COVID agenda. As high powered in-person diplomacy is making a comeback in the global stage following the pandemic pause, Kishida making a much-awaited prime ministerial visit to India sooner rather than later will be a good beginning." | | Polarisation at home is severely affecting American foreign policy, says Fukuyama | | Political scientist Francis Fukuyama, senior fellow at Stanford University, writes in The Economist that America's hegemonic period is over. "The United States is not likely to regain its earlier hegemonic status, nor should it aspire to. What it can hope for is to sustain, with like-minded countries, a world order friendly to democratic values. Whether it can do this will depend on recovering a sense of national identity and purpose at home." | | PODCAST WATCH | | Tracking ways for India to maintain relevance in Afghanistan | | Tune in to The Hindu's In Focus podcast where host Amit Baruah talks to TCA Raghavan, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan and Joint Secretary who dealt with Afghanistan, on India's influence in Afghanistan. The issues discussed are whether the regional route is the best to maintain relevance in Afghan affairs for India, if there are any other options besides engaging the Taliban, or how does this sit with the deteriorating human rights and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan? | | | | Copyright © 2021.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
