Cinema News: Welcome to Firstpost's Weekly Foreign Policy Fix

Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world

Welcome to Firstpost's global brief. We kick off with the virtual summit between US president Joe Biden and Xi Jinping that was important simply because it took place and helped cool down the tension between the two sides. We also cover the COP26 Climate Summit where India held its ground and withstood unfair criticism. Meanwhile, Russia has started the much-awaited delivery of S-400 missile defence system to India (picture above), concerns have heightened over dissident Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai and Sudan's military has killed 15 anti-coup protestors in the deadliest day of violence.

TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES

China claims 'victory', but Biden-Xi's virtual summit achieves little except a thaw on journalists

The much-awaited Joe Biden-Xi Jinping summit finally took place this week amid rising military tensions over Taiwan and an air thick with speculation over who has the "upper hand". The hype over the meeting had reached such a fever pitch that the Biden administration had a hard time managing expectations before the two leader met virtually on Tuesday morning. There was a lot on Biden and Xi's plate — with Taiwan being at the front and centre of talks along with other issues such as nuclear proliferation, Afghanistan, North Korea, Afghanistan and Iran, trade and economic cooperation, cyber security, as well as China's treatment of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and rights violations in Hong Kong. In a coordinated move just ahead of the summit, Reuters reported that an American citizen who had been "blocked for years from leaving China has returned to the US just hours before Biden and Xi's meeting", coinciding with America's "deportation of seven Chinese nationals convicted of crimes." The three and half hours of talks, however, achieved little in terms of takeaways. As New York Times observes, "the two did not even cobble together the sort of joint statement that has typically punctuated summits between the United States and China over the decades… Instead, the two sides issued their own statements, each emphasizing the points of longstanding contention. They amounted to catalogs of mutual grievances that offered little room for compromise." According to the White House readout "Biden raised concerns about PRC's practices in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong… and on Taiwan, Biden underscored that the US remains committed to the "one China" policy… (but) strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." The Chinese foreign ministry readout claims Xi "ascribed the tensions to the repeated attempts by the Taiwan authorities to look for US support for their independence agenda as well as the intention of some Americans to use Taiwan to contain China. Such moves are extremely dangerous, just like playing with fire. Whoever plays with fire will get burnt." There was one agreement, however, that was reported first by Chinese media that both countries "will permit journalists to freely depart and return to each other's countries under strict compliance with COVID-19 protocols." CNN observes that though the meeting delivered no major breakthroughs, China was already claiming victory. China Media Project has an interesting piece on the "buzzwords" at Biden-Xi talks.

India slams accusations that it 'weakened pledge' on coal at COP26 as 'ill-informed and unfair'

The COP26 Climate Summit ended after two weeks of talks in Glasgow, where countries agreed to ramp up their carbon-cutting commitments, phase out some fossil fuels and increase aid to poor countries on the front lines of climate change (read the full Climate pact text here) but the rich nations blamed the lack of consensus on phasing out of coal on India and China. Associated Press reported that "almost 200 nations accepted a compromise deal Saturday aimed at keeping a key global warming target alive, but it contained a last-minute change that watered down crucial language about coal. Several countries, including small island states, said they were deeply disappointed by the change promoted by India to "phase down," rather than "phase out" coal power." London's Financial Times said "A last-minute intervention from India and China weakened the effort to end coal power and fossil fuel subsidies in the Glasgow Climate Pact" while British politician Alok Sharma told Guardian that "India and China will 'have to explain themselves to poor nations' after watering down the Glasgow climate pact, adding that their actions had left him "deeply frustrated". To understand the unfairness of this charge, got through this Twitter thread by Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at Action Aid USA and and head of international climate justice work. He points out that "The problem is not India; the problem is the US & rich countries refusing to couch fossil fuel phaseout in the context of global equity." Times of India quotes Indian officials involved in the negotiations as saying that "such commentary is ill-informed and unfair" because "the term 'phase down' which replaced 'phase out' of coal emissions was taken from the US-China statement of the day before." Notably, in a surprise announcement on Day 13 of the summit, China and the US agreed to boost climate co-operation over the next decade in a joint declaration. Indian officials pointed out that "India objected to the fact that only coal was mentioned and not oil and gas, which is primarily used by the developed countries. That puts countries like India and China in the dock while providing a loophole for western countries." Was COP26 a success? Read this take by The Economist.

Russia starts delivering S-400 missile system to India, US expresses 'concern'

Some important developments are afoot on India-Russia front. Indian media reported this week quoting Russian media that "Russia has started delivering the S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems to India and the deliveries are going as planned." India and Russia had entered into a contract in October 2018 under which Russia will deliver the surface-to-air missile defence systems to New Delhi that is "considered one of the most advanced and potent air defence systems in the world", and "has the capability to protect against almost all sorts of aerial attacks, including drones, missiles, rockets and even fighter jets." Hindustan Times reports, quoting ANI, that "the air defence system will be first deployed at a location close to the western border of the country from where it can tackle threats from both parts of the borders with Pakistan and China." The move attracted the attention of United States which had passed a law in 2017 called Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) whose objective is to discourage countries from carrying out substantive defence deals with Russia, and doing so would invite sanctions under the CAATSA Act. The US has already expressed "concern" over the move but Washington has not taken any decision on imposing the sanctions yet that may seriously impede bilateral ties, and many US Senators are urging the US president to grant India a presidential waiver. Meanwhile, news agency PTI reports, quoting "official sources", that India is set to finalise a long-conceived proposal to procure 30 multi-mission armed Predator drones from the US for the three services at an estimated cost of over $3 billion (around Rs 22,000 crore). The MQ-9B long-endurance drones are armed with air-to-ground missiles.

Concern deepens over Peng Shuai as Chinese media publishes a fishy statement

Concerns over the safety and whereabouts of Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai grew dramatically on Wednesday after a Chinese media outlet published a statement, ostensibly by Peng, that she is "neither missing, nor unsafe", that she is "resting at home" and the sexual assault charges that she had earlier brought against a former powerful Chinese Communist Party official, were "untrue". The statement, written in English and published on the Twitter account of Chinese state broadcaster CGTN, immediately attracted suspicion. BBC reporter Stephen McDonell wondered "why is the cursor visible in this screenshot? Who's taken that screenshot and when? Who sent it?" while CNN reporter Nectar Gan asked: "Why doesn't CGTN post this on Weibo, or anywhere on the Chinese internet? There are plenty of Chinese ppl who worry about #Pengshuai's safety too. They surely deserve to know? This alleged "email" wasn't reported by any Chinese domestic media, and Peng's name remains censored." One of China's biggest tennis stars, multiple Grand Slam winner Peng said on Weibo, Chinese social media, this month that former Chinese vice premier Zhang Gaoli had coerced her into sex and that they later had an on-off consensual relationship. The post was deleted by Chinese censors within minutes and Peng has not been seen or heard of since the post on November 2. Steve Simon, chair and chief executive of Women's Tennis Association, said on Wednesday that he had tried repeatedly to contact Peng without success, according to a report by Financial Times. The report quotes Simon as saying in a statement that the purported email "only raises my concerns as to her safety and whereabouts" and that he had a "hard time believing that Peng Shuai actually wrote the email… or believes what is being attributed to her". He added: "Peng must be allowed to speak freely, without coercion or intimidation from any source. Her allegation of sexual assault must be respected, investigated with full transparency and without censorship." Men's world No.1 Novak Djokovic has expressed his concern over Peng and called the developments "shocking" and so has Japanese tennis star Naomi Osaka. Her post on Twitter had a hashtag #WhereIsPengShuai

Military opens fire on anti-coup protestors in Sudan, killing 15, as Blinken lands in Africa

Terrible news is coming from Sudan where a military coup took place last month when prime minister Abdalla Hamdok and hundred other government officials were placed under house arrest in undisclosed locations and the government was dissolved by military leaders. But the coup drew international attention and massive civilian protests have been going on in the country for the past three weeks. On Wednesday, as thousands of Sudanese took to the streets, security forces opened fire and "shot dead at least 15 people and wounded dozens in the deadliest day in a month of demonstrations against military rule," according to a report by Reuters that quoted Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors, a group aligned with the protest movement. The protestors were marching across the capital Khartoum and in the cities of Bahri and Omdurman against the October 25 coup, demanding a full handover to civilian authorities and for coup authors to be put on trial. The Guardian reports that fatalities in Khartoum on Wednesday raised to 38 the death toll from unrest since the military seized power and Washington has suspended about $700m in assistance to Sudan since the coup. Reuters observes that the "coup ended a transitional partnership between the military and a civilian coalition that helped topple autocrat President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Despite pressure from Western states, which have suspended economic assistance, efforts at mediation have stalled, with Burhan moving to cement control with help from Bashir-era veterans." Associated Press quotes a pro-military minister, Gibreil Ibrahim, as saying that "time is running out for the country's deposed prime minister to agree to take a technocratic post in a military" and "if he doesn't take the job, then someone else will definitely take it because the country cannot wait forever." Ibrahim also says that calls by some pro-democracy groups, the United States and its western allies to return the pre-coup transitional government are "unrealistic." US secretary of state Antony Blinken is in Africa. New York Times points out that Blinken's first visit to sub-Saharan Africa was intended to be a grand gesture of American support for the continent. But his first day also illustrated the frustrating limits of American influence in a region undergoing deep turmoil." As Blinken meets officials in Nairobi, Kenya, security forces in neighbouring Sudan are killing protestors and a civil is raging in Ethiopia, observes the report.

TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK

Joe Biden still has no viable strategy on China

John Bolton, who served as US national security adviser under Donald Trump, in his column for Wall Street Journal accuses the Biden administration of lacking a China strategy. He writes, ""America has no China strategy 10 months after President Joe Biden's inauguration. Monday's Zoom meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping only highlighted that void. Dulcet tones and torrents of presidential words are no substitute for clear policies. Beijing could perceive White House emphasis on 'cooling tensions' as a green light to continue its assertive behavior."

Rivalry with China more complex than Cold War, it's a three-dimensional game

Harvard University professor Joseph Nye writes in New York Times that to say the United States is in a Cold War with China is "bad on history, bad on politics, bad for our future." He argues that Biden's "actions suggest that his strategy for dealing with China may indeed suffer from Cold War thinking, which locks our minds into the traditional two-dimensional chess model. Competition with China, though, is a three-dimensional game. And if we continue to play two-dimensional chess, we will lose."

A US-China grand bargain may leave India in the lurch

Executive director of ORF-America Dhruva Jaishankar writes in Hindustan Times that "shared concerns about China and Pakistan ought to be an obvious impetus for India-US cooperation. But some US policymakers and commentators still struggle to assess China and Pakistan in competitive terms and fashion appropriate responses. As long as there is confusion on this score, strategic relations with India will naturally be inhibited."

Xi is now next only to Mao in pantheon of CPC's greatest leaders

On the Sixth Plenum held recently by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, we argue in Firstpost that "Xi Jinping has ensured that he will remain at the helm of the party for another term, if not two, and he has seemingly surpassed even Deng in the pantheon of greatest CPC leaders.

Other political system won't work for us, says CPC's Hong Kong minder

Liu Guangyuan, Chinese foreign ministry's Hong Kong commissioner, offers in South China Morning Post four insights from the Communist Party's 100 years that were discussed during the adoption of the Communist Party's historical resolution at the Sixth Plenum. He writes that the "Communist Party is clear that China's political civilisation and system must be rooted in Chinese society and that other systems simply will not work for us. Even worse, cloning other systems could result in the collapse of a state."

India's Delhi Declaration had a message for marginalized Taliban factions

Avinash Paliwal, who teaches at SOAS, University of London, analyses for Hindustan Times the recent India-led Delhi Declaration on Afghanistan. He writes, "the dialogue seeks to message those Taliban factions marginalised in Kabul that checking the power of Sirajuddin Haqqani and, by corollary, Pakistan, is essential for their political survival. There are myriad latent pockets of resistance to the Haqqanis within and outside Afghanistan. For non-Pakistani neighbours of Afghanistan, inclusive power-sharing in Kabul is a necessity to ensure long-term stability."

US should avoid striking a Faustian bargain with Pakistan on Afghanistan

Jeff Smith, research fellow in the Heritage Foundation, in his piece for War on the Rocks writes that "with limited access to Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. forces, the Biden administration should begin preparing for the worst — for the possibility that globally ambitious terrorist groups find either direct support or a more permissive environment to operate by an Afghan government heavily influenced by the Haqqani Network. Critically, it should do so while avoiding falling into a Faustian bargain with Pakistan, exchanging access to Afghanistan for acceptance of Pakistan's support to the very same terrorist groups the United States is targeting."

India, US need out of the box approach on digital trade

Mohit Kalawatia, who works at a technology policy consulting firm, writes in The Print on US trade representative Katherine Tai's visit to India that "Indian and US trade negotiators will have to craft an out-of-the-box approach that can balance the need for the former to maintain its policy independence, whilst ensuring that digital trade remains tariff-free."

Quad must challenge China in infotech domain

In their piece, Observer Research Foundation president Samir Saran and Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, write that "from codes and norms for financial technologies to the code of conduct for nations and corporations in cyberspace and outer space, the Quad has the responsibility and opportunity to write the rules for our common digital future. The Quad will also have to be an economic actor and build strategic capacities and assets in the region and beyond. It will have to secure minerals, diversify supply chains and create alternatives that ensure the digital lifelines are not disrupted."

Signals from US on CAATSA sanctions so far are positive

Washington DC-based journalist Seema Sirohi writes in Economic Times that "the sword of US sanctions hanging over India for buying the Russian S-400 missile defence system is likely to return to its scabbard. The signals so far are positive, even if Joe Biden hasn't officially revealed his thinking. Broadly speaking, three 'Cs' will determine Biden's decision: concerns, considerations and China."

PODCAST WATCH

India can't rely on developed world for climate financing

We recommend Stratnews Global's podcast The Gist where host Surya Gangadharan speaks to former foreign secretary and climate change envoy Shyam Saran on COP26 Summit. Saran says two points clearly stand out: developing countries cannot rely on the developed world to deliver on the $100 billion of climate financing they had committed; second, India must find an alternative to the current energy intensive model of development, more so because much of the energy is imported whether oil, gas or coal, and it also unsustainable. The link to the full conversation is here.