| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | It was hard sorting out the most significant stories in such an eventful week. We kick off with the balloon saga (pic above of US fighter jet taking down a Chinese 'spy' balloon) that has further bruised US-China ties, touch upon Air India's mega Airbus, Boeing deal that is causing geopolitical ripples, track crazy developments in Pakistan, Indian foreign secretary's visit to Nepal and Bangladesh and Iran president's three-day visit to China. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Biden claims 3 'aerial objects' were not spy devices, but Chinese one was, and he won't apologise | | Much ado over balloons? A key chapter in the history of US-China ties will feature a moment when tensions between two superpowers reached such a crescendo that one side fired $400,00 missiles to take down the other side's — wait for it — balloons. And that, too, not the sinister 'spy' variety that we have been led to believe by Washington over the past three weeks, but weather balloons. Joe Biden admitted as much on Thursday. In a White House address, the US president said, "We don't yet know exactly what these three objects were, but nothing right now suggests they were related to China's spy balloon program or that they were surveillance vehicles from any other country," Biden said in his first formal remarks on the objects shot from the sky last weekend over Canada and the US," reports CNN. "The intelligence community's current assessment is that these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions studying weather or conducting other scientific research." Difficult to say whether China — that has been insisting all along that these were meteorological devices gone astray — would be chortling or outraging at Biden's comments but it is likely to be the latter. Beijing has already complained on Monday that US high altitude balloons had flown over its airspace without permission more than 10 times since the beginning of January 2022. Biden, however, stuck to his guns that the balloon shot down by a US fighter aircraft on February 5 off the South Carolina coast was indeed a Chinese surveillance device, and while three more objects shot from the sky last weekend over Canada and the US were likely 'weather devices', he will not apologise for taking down "that" balloon. "We are not looking for a new cold war… I expect to be speaking with President Xi. I hope we are going to get to the bottom of this, but I make no apologies for taking down that balloon," Biden said in response to complaints from Beijing, reports Reuters. Associated Press, in its report, quotes Biden that the US is developing "sharper rules" to track, monitor and potentially shoot down unknown aerial objects. "The president has directed national security adviser Jake Sullivan to lead an 'interagency team' to review US procedures after Washington shot down the Chinese balloon, as well as three other objects that Biden said the US now believes are most likely 'benign' objects launched by private companies or research institutions." NPR has a handy timeline on the balloon saga if you are baffled by the twists and turns on this story, as I am. | | Biden, Macron, Sunak hail Air India's Airbus-Boeing mega deal that reflects India's rising economic clout | | Tata Group, that recently acquired 100% stake in Air India, has scripted the mother of all aviation deals that may rewrite the global geo-economic landscape. "Tata Group-owned Air India (AI) placed two mega orders on Tuesday, adding up to a staggering 470 aircraft — for 250 planes with Europe's Airbus consortium, and 220 with Boeing Co. of the United States. This is the largest order placed by an airline in one go anywhere in the world, beating the 2011 order by American Airlines for a combined 460 aircraft. The biggest order by an Indian carrier before this was IndiGo's 300-aircraft order in 2019," reports Indian Express. The report adds, "the significance of the order goes far beyond Air India and India's aviation sector. This was underscored by the lead taken by global leaders prime minister Narendra Modi, French president Emmanuel Macron, and US president Joe Biden in making the announcement. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also weighed in." US president Joe Biden called the agreement "historic" and followed it up with a telephone call to prime minister Narendra Modi. In a statement released by White House, Biden said: "this purchase will support over one million American jobs across 44 states… This announcement also reflects the strength of the US-India economic partnership. Together with prime minister Modi, I look forward to deepening our partnership even further…" Macron, reacting on Air India's 250-jet Airbus deal, said on Tuesday that France was committed to working closely with India. "This achievement shows that Airbus and all its French partners are fully dedicated to develop new areas of dedication with India," Macron said during a video presentation, reports Reuters. British prime minister Sunak also lauded the deal, saying it would create new jobs. Livemint reports, "A significant portion of the manufacturing process for the new aircraft is set to take place in the UK, including the assembly and production of wings and engines. This is expected to create hundreds of new jobs and lead to significant investments in the UK… Sunak said the 'landmark deal' will create 'better-paid jobs and new opportunities in manufacturing hubs from Derby to Wales' so that the UK 'can grow the economy and support our agenda to level up'." | | Imran supporters thwart arrest attempt as Pakistan plunges into economic chaos and sky-high inflation | | The breathless unfolding of events in Pakistan has all the ingredients of a spy thriller. Former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa has said that the government led by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party was a threat to the country. In a discussion with Pakistani journalist Javed Chaudhry, Bajwa claimed if Imran Khan had continued as the country's prime minister, there would have been no Pakistan as it would have led to the eventual destruction of the country, reports India Today quoting Pakistani media. Imran, meanwhile, called for an "internal military inquiry against former army chief retired General Qamar Javed Bajwa for his alleged 'admission' about being involved in the PTI government's ouster" and on Thursday, demanded that president Arif Alvi should "institute an immediate inquiry" against Bajwa for violating "his oath of office repeatedly" as the army chief. Meanwhile, also on Thursday, Imran was supposed to appear before the Lahore High Court. He failed to do so and his one protective bail was dismissed as "non-prosecution" despite promises that the former premier would appear before the court. A second protective bail hearing was adjourned till Monday after his party, PTI, furnished an assurance regarding his appearance. As soon as Imran's protective bail was dismissed by Lahore high court for 'no show', police appeared at Imran's residence in Lahore ostensibly to arrest him. As the police caravan arrived in force, hundreds of Imran supporters, Including women and children, and party workers gathered to resist any such attempt. They camped outside his residence, chanting slogans, waving flags, carrying banners as songs played loudly in the background, reports India Today. In another development, the Shehbaz Sharif government in a desperate measure to unlock IMF's bailout funds, jacked up fuel prices to unprecedented highs. Petrol price has been increased to Rs 272 per litre (Pakistan currency) and diesel to Rs 280 per litre. | | Foreign secretary Kwatra undertakes back-to-back visits to Nepal, Bangladesh to enhance ties | | "India has stepped up engagement with key neighbours with foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra undertaking back-to-back visits to Nepal and Bangladesh this week amid China's fast paced inroads in the region", reports Economic Times. In Nepal, Kwatra on Monday met Nepal's new prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' in Kathmandu. The meeting marked the first high-level interaction between India and Nepal since the new Left-dominated government took charge in that country on December 26, 2022, reports The Hindu. On Tuesday, Kwatra called on Nepal's deputy prime minister Narayankaji Shrestha and discussed railways, treaties and agreements between the two countries, and projects undertaken by Indian companies in Nepal, including in the power and energy sector, reports Business Standard. The report adds, "Shrestha put forth issues concerning Nepal's railway line, economic prosperity, Indian investments in Nepal and past agreements and understandings between countries". According to Economic Times, "the proposed cross-border Kathmandu-Raxaul broad-gauge railway line will give Kathmandu a direct connection with the Indian railway network, enabling uninterrupted train travel to all Indian cities. The train link to Raxaul, which will be between 136 and 198 km long, is seen as New Delhi's attempt to counter Chinese influence in Nepal." Kwatra arrived in Dhaka on Tuesday to attend the Foreign Office Consultation (FOC) to discuss a wide range of bilateral relations. He called on Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina on Wednesday and reiterated India's support for a wider and deeper economic and development partnership with Bangladesh, reports ABP Live. India Today reports that the Indian foreign secretary invited Hasina to the G-20 summit that will be held in Delhi on September 9-10 this year. Officials of the ministry of foreign affairs of Bangladesh said that there will be several high-level meetings between the two countries this year as part of preparations for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's India visit, says the report. Apart from multilateral engagements, the two sides held discussions on bilateral development projects, defence cooperation and security issues, says The Hindu. | | Xi to visit Tehran as Raisi's Beijing visit comes to a close; China calls for lifting of all Iran sanctions | | Iran president Ebrahim Raisi's state visit to Beijing has gone under the radar of Indian media. That is curious, because the ramifications of the visit could be far-reaching. Reuters reports that China's President Xi Jinping and his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, called on Thursday for the lifting of sanctions on Iran as an integral part of a stalled international agreement on its nuclear programme. Associated Press reports that in a statement carried by Chinese state TV on its website, Xi said "China supports Iran in safeguarding national sovereignty" and "resisting unilateralism and bullying." Xi and Raisi attended the signing of 20 cooperation agreements including trade and tourism, the Chinese government announced. Those add to a 25-year strategy agreement signed in 2021 to cooperate in developing oil, industry and other fields. China is one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil and a source of investment. In the joint statement (Chinese version) the two sides "reiterated their support for each other on core interests and emphasized that the peace and stability of the Persian Gulf is important for global security and energy transportation." Global Times adds in its report that "the two sides also agreed to strengthen strategic communication between the two countries' defense departments, carry out exchanges and cooperation between the two militaries at all levels and in various fields, and expand the scale of joint exercises and personnel training." As Raisi closed his three-day visit Thursday, the joint statement announced Xi will make a state visit to Iran. Xi "gladly accepted the invitation" from the Iranian president, the statement said, but did not give any date for the visit. Xi's last visit to Iran was in 2016 as part of a tour of the region. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | What China has learnt from Ukraine war | | Evan A. Feigenbaum of Carnegie and Adam Szubin of Johns Hopkins University write in Foreign Affairs on the lessons China has learnt from the Ukraine war. | | US is unprepared to deter China's nuclear threat | | Patty-Jane Geller of The Heritage Foundation writes in Wall Street Journal that China now has more intercontinental ballistic missile launchers than the U.S, is cranking out nuclear warheads at record pace, and Beijing is also testing technologies that Moscow and Washington have never had. The U.S. is unprepared to deter China's growing nuclear threat. | | Joe Biden's foreign policy is a mess | | Kori Schake of American Enterprise Institute writes in Foreign Affairs that Joe Biden's foreign policy "is a mess". The author writes, "the central deficiency of Biden's national security strategy is the absence of an economic vision that will allow the United States and other countries to reduce their dependence on Chinese products and markets." | | India's rise is beyond doubt | | Economist Richard Yetsenga writes in Nikkei Asia that India's rise is beyond doubt. "The rise of the Asian Tigers — Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea — was unique. China's rise has been unique. So, too, will be India's. Textbooks have to be rewritten after each such rise and likely will be again as India's progresses." | | India's 3-pronged strategy to counter Chinese threat along LAC | | Sisir Gupta writes in Hindustan Times of Narendra Modi's three-pronged strategy to counter CHina's moves along the LAC. The strategy includes raising seven more ITBP battalions, launching a vibrant village scheme and clearing the Shinkun La tunnel to steel the Indian defences along the LAC and counter China's Fortress Tibet policy. | | India should welcome Japan's new interest in Global South | | C Raja Mohan of Asia Society Policy Institute writes in Indian Express that India, which has long backed Japan's leadership role in Asia, has every reason to welcome Fumio Kishida's new interest in the Global South. Japan's initiatives on the Indo-Pacific and the Quad have broken the misperception of Asia as being merely Sino-centric. | | US must adopt a 'dormant NATO' strategy | | Sumantra Maitra, senior Fellow at The Center for American Renewing, writes in a policy brief on pivoting the US away from Europe that a "dormant NATO" strategy that allows the US to shift the security burden to Europe rapidly must be one of the highest priorities for Washington. | | Can a real offer of peace come from Pakistan? | | Kunal Singh, PhD candidate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, writes in Hindustan Times that a real shot at peace can come from Pakistan only when an army chief, who has consolidated his position and can ride roughshod over domestic opposition, is convinced of the dire need to liberate the country's economic resources from the military's grip. | | Pakistan is choosing extremist Islam over economic stability | | Kunwar Khuldune Shahid, a Pakistan-based journalist and a correspondent for The Diplomat, writes in Foreign Policy that Pakistan is choosing extremist Islam over economic stability. | | Why I couldn't give a damn about Musharraf's death in exile | | Vir Sanghvi, writing in NDTV on former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf's demise, quips that he really couldn't give a damn about the passing away of a man who was an extremely dodgy character who should never have been trusted. | | PODCAST | | Can India become a leading power? | | We recommend this edition of Carnegie's 'Grand Tamasha' podcast where Ashley J. Tellis speaks to host Milan Vaishnav on what it would take for India to become a leading power. | | | | Copyright © 2023.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
