Cinema News: Welcome to Firstpost's Weekly Foreign Policy Fix

Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world

Globetrotter is back after a break as we wish readers a very happy 2023. We start the New Year tracking five significant developments. These are: India-France strategic dialogue (pic of French envoy Emmanuel Bonne with PM Modi above), Jaishankar's visit to Austria and Cyprus, China's Covid disaster, Bongbong Marcos' visit to Beijing and Pakistan getting a taste of its own medicine from terror outfit TTP.

TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES

Rafale for Navy in focus as India, France hold strategic dialogue; discuss Ukraine, Afghanistan, space

India and France on Thursday held the 36th round of bilateral strategic dialogue. The meeting was co-chaired by NSA Ajit Doval and his counterpart Emmanuel Bonne. The visiting diplomatic adviser to French president also met prime minister Narendra Modi and external affairs minister S Jaishankar Thursday. The MEA release states: "During the strategic dialogue and the meetings, India and France reiterated their commitment to take forward their strategic partnership to ensure peace, stability and security in the Indo-Pacific based on common beliefs in rules-based international order and strategic autonomy." A report in The Hindu adds, quoting MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi, "the two sides held discussions on a variety of issues, including the current global security situation in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, regional security in the context of Afghanistan, counter-terrorism, cyber security, defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, besides other issues of mutual concern." ANI reports, quoting a French embassy statement, that "the agenda covered all aspects of the Indo-French strategic partnership: defence and security cooperation; major international and regional issues, including the war in Ukraine, and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific; counter-terrorism cooperation; cyber-security; space; civil nuclear energy… "On each topic, the two sides agreed to raise the level of ambition of our cooperation even further with the goal of accelerating efforts towards strategic autonomy." According to ABP Live, that quoted "sources", "both sides are believed to have discussed India's decision to procure the French Rafale M fighter jets for the Indian Navy… The deal to buy 26 Rafale M — the naval variant of the Rafale fighter aircraft — will be signed during the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to India tentatively in March," said the report. "The Indian Air Force is already using the Rafale fighter planes. If the deal for Rafale M also goes through then it will be easier for the Navy to use the training and maintenance facility in Ambala", added the report.

Pacts on migration, visa, solar alliance signed as Jaishankar concludes 2-nation visit to Austria, Cyprus

This week also saw Union external affairs minister S Jaishankar embark on a two-nation visit to Cyprus and Austria from December 29, 2022 to January 3, 2023. Jaishankar's visit saw a wide-ranging discussion on a gamut of issues, reaffirmation of strong diplomatic ties with both countries, talks on India-EU relations and inking of deals on several key issues, including migration and mobility. In Cyprus, adds an MEA readout, the EAM "met with acting president Annita Demetriou and his Cypriot counterpart Ioannis Kasoulides… Both sides undertook a detailed review of bilateral ties, including political, economic, commercial and cultural relations. They also exchanged views on India-EU relations, regional as well as international issues of mutual interest. During the visit, MoUs on Defence and military cooperation and declaration of intent on migration and mobility were signed between the two countries. RoC became the 111th country to sign the Framework Agreement and 92nd full member country to join the International Solar Alliance (ISA)." In Austria, Jaishankar met president. Alexander van der Bellen, speaker of Austrian parliament Wolfgang Sobotka and foreign minister Alexander Schallenberg. "The two sides signed/initialed several agreements, including in the areas of migration and mobility which is the first such agreement reached by Austria with any country with whom they have a visa regime and only the second with a non-OECD country," adds the MEA release. Post signing the 'Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement' with India, Austrian FM Schallenberg during a joint press statement with Jaishankar said, "Last year Austria witnessed exploding number of Indians who arrived at the borders of Austria as illegal immigrants... over 100,000. Also, we had an exploding number of Indians coming illegally via Serbia to Austria." In an interview to an Austrian newspaper, Jaishankar rejected charges that India was indulging in "war profiteering" by buying Russian oil — a charge Europe has frequently leveled against New Delhi — and pointed out that "when Europe reduces its imports from Russia, it has to go to other oil markets. And those markets have been our main sources. If you take away my food, what am I going to do? Starve?"

As bodies pile up in China, WHO says Beijing is underreporting data; Biden expresses 'concern'

China's Covid surge shows no signs of abetting in the New Year. President Xi Jinping may be all-powerful, but he looks powerless to stop the pandemic surge that is ravaging China's economy and public health. As Bloomberg reports, "After years of meticulously testing to find every last case of Covid-19, Chinese president Xi is now effectively looking the other way as the virus ravages the nation's 1.4 billion people. Authorities have stopped releasing data on infections and only officially recognized an absurdly low number of Covid deaths. The lack of information has prompted the US and other countries to impose testing requirements on travelers, and the World Health Organization this week called for greater transparency. Xi's bigger problem, however, is at home… Infections are rampant. Medical supplies are running out. Hospitals are becoming overwhelmed. And crematoriums can't handle the surge of fatalities. What's more, the problem could get worse. Airfinity, a London-based research firm that focuses on predictive health analytics, estimates that deaths could nearly triple to as many as 25,000 per day later in January." Though Beijing's officially acclaimed Covid-death data remains ridiculously low, reports emerging from China of "a seemingly endless flow of grieving families and exhausted workers" and bodies piling up in crematoriums that are running in full capacity "tell the real story of Covid's toll on the world's second-biggest economy." Governments around the world are imposing restrictions on Chinese travelers. That includes the United States where Joe Biden has expressed "worry" over China's Covid handling and Europe, which wants Chinese visitors to give negative Covid test and wear mask on planes, and has asked member nations to increase testing of waste water from airports and aircraft to monitor potential new coronavirus variants. On Thursday, China defended its handling of COVID-19 outbreak after World Health Organisation (WHO) said Beijing was under-reporting virus deaths. The WHO's emergencies director, Mike Ryan, had said on Wednesday that Chinese officials were under-representing data on several fronts, including hospital admissions, intensive care unit patients and deaths, and said Beijing's definition of COVID-related deaths was too narrow, according to a report by Reuters.

China, Philippines agree on channels to solve maritime disputes during Bongbong Marcos' trip to Beijing

Philippine president Ferdinand (Bongbong) Marcos Jr. has cited stable ties with China during a visit to Beijing in which he has sought to downplay territorial disputes in the South China Sea, reports Associated Press. The nations are locked in a bitter dispute over islands and waters in the strategic South China Sea, which Beijing claims virtually in its entirety. In a video address released by his office Wednesday, Marcos said the sides discussed "what we can do to move forward, to avoid possible mistakes, misunderstandings that could trigger a bigger problem than what we already have." Marcos said he made the case for Filipino fishermen who have been denied access to their traditional areas of operation by China's navy and coast guard, says the report. South China Morning Post reports that "Beijing and Manila have agreed to set up direct communication channels and peacefully resolve maritime disputes in the South China Sea following the talks between Xi Jinping and Bongbong Marcos, who signed 14 deals during his three-day trip to China, including four loan agreements. Analysts said the meeting yielded positive outcomes, but obstacles remained given that previous 'proclamations of good intentions' had not resolved territorial disputes." "The 14 agreements signed between China and the Philippines included deals on agriculture, infrastructure, development cooperation, maritime security and tourism, among others," reports Firstpost. The joint statement released after rhe meeting states: "Both sides reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the region and the freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea." Following a diplomatic row over Chinese debris found in Philippine waters, both sides agreed to set up a notification system for rocket launches. The statement said "both sides agreed to collaborate closely on the mitigation of marine debris emanating from various sources, and micro plastics."

TTP challenges Pakistan's sovereignty, kills ISI officers, threatens to target PM Shehbaz and FM Bilawal

The snakes that Pakistan has long reared in its backyard are now turning against it. "In a direct challenge to the sovereignty of the Pakistan government and the country's military establishment led by the Pakistan Army, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – also known as the Pakistan Taliban – has announced the formation of its own government in northern Pakistan and has even declared the formation of various ministries. "Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has announced its new appointments dividing the outfit into various ministries, Defence, Judiciary, Information, Political affairs, Economic Affairs, Education, a fatwa issuing authority, Intelligence and a department for construction," the TTP said in a statement as quoted by its mouthpiece The Khorasan Diary (TKD) publication," reports Firstpost. Indian Express says "the TTP, which has old links with the Afghan Taliban, became active once again in the north-west tribal areas of Pakistan (earlier FATA, but now part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) after the Afghan Taliban captured Kabul. They broke a long lull in their attacks inside Pakistani territory, started asserting themselves in the tribal parts of KP province, asking men not to trim their beards, and extorting money from residents of the area as a kind of 'tax'." Since ending the ceasefire, the TTP has carried out a series of attacks in Pakistan, the latest being on Tuesday when two officials of Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI were killed in a resurgence of jihadist violence. The ISI officers were shot dead outside a hotel in Punjab province. The incident occurred a day after Pakistan's top civilian and military leaders pledged to use "full force" to deal with militants, reports Reuters. A day after Pakistan Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said there will be no talks with TTP or any other terrorist organization the TTP warned Pakistan's main ruling parties of "concrete action" against their top leadership in the government for "declaring war" against it. According to a report in Al Jazeera, "a statement released by the TTP on Wednesday explicitly named Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari" and "Pakistan's security forces who are acting against the country's interest upon wishes of the West." The issue has also ensnared Pakistan-Afghanistan ties with the ruling Taliban in Kabul pushing back against Pakistani accusations of Afghanistan harboring terrorists.

TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK

2023 could be the year of India's rise

The new year could mark the beginning of a tripolar world, involving the U.S., China and India. New Delhi is undeniably on the rise, argues Nikkei Asia chief editor Shigesaburo Okumura.

India is critical to deterring China on Taiwan

India will not join military operations to defend Taiwan, it is vital to create the international conditions that would make a Chinese invasion more difficult, writes Tokyo-based policy wonk Satoru Nagao of Hudson Institute in Diamond Online.

India needs to come up with a National Security Strategy

Japan's new security strategy to counter China is a lesson for India, argues professor Rajesh Rajagopalan of JNU in The Print.

India must adapt to shifts in great power relations

India's G20 leadership would be a success if it can prevent the complete breakdown of the multilateral system and generate major power consensus on a few issues, writes Asia Society fellow C Raja Mohan in Indian Express.

India is pursuing own interests with a new assertiveness

The invasion of Ukraine, compounding the effects of the pandemic, has contributed to the ascent of India, a giant that defies easy alignment. It could be the decisive force in a changing global system, writes Roger Cohen of New York Times.

China's great leap forward into herd immunity

Shuli Ren of Bloomberg gives a first-person account of how Shanghai went from exuberance to empty streets with its Covid reopening and how the virus is ravaging China.

Pakistan must negotiate directly with Taliban on TTP

Pakistan's Shehbaz government is left with little option but to negotiate directly with the Taliban and convince Kabul that the TTP is Pakistan's redline, argues Ayesha Siddiqa of King's College, London, in The Print.

Britain must liberate itself from its delusional Westminster class

The cosmopolitanism of Britain's governing class is pushing the country further into global irrelevance, argues Aris Roussinos in Unherd.

Revolutionary Dahal is now part of Nepal's power elite

Pushpa Kumar Dahal, the new Nepal PM, has come a long way from being a revolutionary militant leader set on changing the political and ideological structures of the country to becoming one of the Kathmandu power elite that is wedded to the status quo, writes Srinivasan Ramani in The Hindu.

Netanyahu is becoming Israel's Viktor Orban

As Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power in Israel, Aluf Benn, chief editor of Haaretz, writes in Foreign Affairs that Netanyahu wants to become the Israeli version of Viktor Orban, neutralizing the judiciary, controlling the media, and making it all but impossible for Israelis to vote him out of power.

PODCAST

Shringla on opportunities and challenges of India's G20 presidency

We recommend this edition of ANI Podcast where host Smita Prakash speaks to chief coordinator for India's G20 presidency Harsh Vardhan Shringla, the former foreign secretary, on the logistics behind holding such a massive event and the issues impacting the World and India's role in resolving them.