Cinema News: Democrats and immigration: Where to now?

July 17, 2025 | View in browser

By Michael Wilner

Washington Bureau Chief

Democrats may not agree on a solution to the country's broken immigration system — but President Trump's crackdown in Los Angeles has finally given them a line of attack.

'Better terrain'

A flicker of hope has emerged from a brutal polling environment for the party suggesting the public is torn over Trump's blunt tactics in the immigration raids. The recent set of numbers have been an outlier on an issue that has otherwise been Trump's strongest since taking office.

"Absolutely, sentiment is shifting," said G. Cristina Mora, a sociology professor at UC Berkeley. "You're seeing more dissatisfaction and less agreeance with the president's strategy on immigration enforcement."

Polls released over the course of the last month found that, while a plurality of Americans still support Trump's overall approach to immigration, a majority believe that ICE has gone too far in its deportation efforts. And a new survey from Gallup found record public support for immigration, with public concern over crossings and support for mass deportations down significantly from a year ago.

Top Democratic operatives are testing new talking points, hoping to press their potential advantage.

"The only place in the world that Donald Trump has put boots on the ground and deployed troops is in America," Rahm Emanuel, a veteran party insider who served under President Obama before becoming mayor of Chicago, said this week. "In L.A., they get troops on the ground. That's the Trump Doctrine. The only place he's actually put boots on the ground is in an American city."

In Washington, efforts to corral Democratic lawmakers behind a unified message on immigration have been futile ever since the party split over the Laken Riley Act, one of the first bills passed this term. The law allows ICE to detain undocumented immigrants that have faced charges, been arrested or convicted of nonviolent crimes such as burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting.

But last month, when the shock of Trump's military deployment to Los Angeles was still fresh, every single Democrat in the Senate joined in a call on the White House to withdraw the troops. The letter had no power or influence, and was paid little attention as the nascent crisis unfolded. But it was a small victory for a party that saw a rare glimpse of political unity amid the chaos.

Now, Democrats are hoping in part that Trump becomes a victim of his own success, with focus pulled from a quiet border that has seen record-low crossings since he resumed office.

In the House, Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands) is leading an immigration working group, sources said, hoping to foster consensus in the party on how to proceed.

"The issue has gotten a little less hot, because the border is calmed down," said one senior Democratic congressional aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly. "Now the focus is raids, which is better terrain for us."

A party split

In May, Ruben Gallego, a Democrat who won a statewide race for his Senate seat in Arizona the same year that Trump handily won the state's presidential contest, released a vision for immigration policy. His proposal, titled "Securing the Border and Ensuring Economic Prosperity," received little fanfare. But the plan called for significant border security enhancements as well as an increase in visa and green card opportunities and a pathway to citizenship.

It was a shot at the middle from an ambitious politician scheduled to visit Iowa, a crucial state in the presidential nominating contest, early next month.

Yet it is unclear whether efforts by Gallego, a border state senator, to moderate the party's messaging on immigration will resonate with its base. Gallego was one of only 12 Democratic senators who voted for the Laken Riley Act.

On the other side of the party, leaders like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, as well as Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, have focused their criticism on Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, with Mamdani calling the agency "fascist" in its tactics.

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"Democrats built the deportation machine that Trump has now turbocharged," said Elliott Young, a history professor at Lewis & Clark College. "The Democrats have an opportunity to stake out a humane and economically sensible position of encouraging immigration and welcoming our future citizens from around the world. The Republicans will always be better at cruelty and xenophobia, so better to leave that to them."

In her research at UC Berkeley, Mora still sees "very strong support" across party lines for a pathway to citizenship, as well as for the constitutional preservation of birthright citizenship. But she is skeptical of an emerging strategy from a segment of Democrats, like Gallego, to adopt a prevailing Republican narrative of rampant criminal activity among immigrants while still promoting legal protections for the rest.

Having it both ways will be difficult, she said. The Trump administration says that anyone who crossed the border without authorization is a criminal, regardless of their record once they got here.

"The Democratic Party is in this sort of place where, if you look at the Ruben Gallegos and that element, they're sort of ceding the narrative as they talk about getting rid of the criminals," Mora said. "Narratives of immigrants and criminality, despite all the data showing otherwise, are so tightly connected."

"It's a tricky dance to make," she added.

An L.A. opportunity

Before Gallego's visit to Iowa, California Gov. Gavin Newsom visited South Carolina earlier this month, a transparent political stop in another crucial early primary state by a Democratic presidential contender.

For Newsom, the politics of the raids in his home state have been unavoidable from the start. But the governor's speech in Bennettsville teased a political line of attack that appears to reflect shifting public opinion against ICE tactics.

Linking the raids with Trump's response to the Los Angeles fires, Newsom noted the president was silent on the six-month anniversary of the devastating event, while that day ordering hundreds of federal troops into MacArthur Park in the heart of the city.

"Kids were taken away and hidden into the buildings, as they paraded around with American flags on horseback in military garb and machine guns — all masked," Newsom said. "Not one arrest was made."

"He wanted to make a point," Newsom added. "Cruelty is the point."