Cinema News: Big divide between California’s two most prominent Black Democrats

May 12, 2025 | View in browser

By Seema Mehta

Staff Writer

California voters have sharply differing views over two of the state's most prominent Democrats, according to a new poll.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is expected to decide by the end of the summer whether she runs for California governor in 2026, has near universal name recognition among California voters, and 50% view her favorably, according to a survey by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies that was co-sponsored by The Times.

In contrast, California voters, notably residents of the city of Los Angeles, are more likely to view Mayor Karen Bass unfavorably. In the aftermath of the devastating fires in Altadena and Pacific Palisades earlier this year and criticism of the city's response, Bass' approval ratings are dire among Angelenos, who are overwhelmingly Democratic. Voters' unhappiness with the mayor could create difficulties for her reelection campaign next year if the mood persists.

"When you're underwater and almost universally known — 82% of voters can offer an opinion of Bass in Los Angeles city — one of the hardest things to overcome is an accumulated negative image," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the IGS poll. "Once you develop an unfavorable image, it's hard to overcome. It almost requires another major event she can take credit for or look good in handling."

The Democrats are longtime allies — Harris swore Bass in when she was elected mayor of Los Angeles in 2022 after defeating real estate developer Rick Caruso by nearly 10 points.

Both women were among the elected officials vetted to be Joe Biden's running mate in the 2020 election. Harris ultimately prevailed, was elected vice president and then became the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024 after Biden decided not to run for reelection.

But California voters have strikingly different thoughts about the veteran elected officials.

Perceptions of Bass, a longtime member of Congress and the state Legislature, have faltered in the aftermath of the fires — a notable reversal among Californians who were optimistic about her prospects shortly before she won the mayoral election in 2022.

In October of that year, 50% of likely voters in Los Angeles had a positive opinion of Bass, while 35% had a negative view, according to a UC Berkeley/Times poll conducted at the time.

Now, half of the city's voters surveyed perceive her negatively, while 32% have a favorable impression, according to the new poll. In Los Angeles, with the exception of Black voters and senior citizens, Bass is viewed more unfavorably than positively among voters of every other age group, and men and women. Statewide, 42% of voters do not have a favorable view of Bass, who is facing a recall effort that is unlikely to make the ballot. Only 1 in 5 (19%) give her high marks.

Harris, despite losing the presidential election to Donald Trump in 2024, is faring better than Bass among California voters as she weighs a gubernatorial bid next year to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cannot run for the seat again because of term limits.

Roughly 96% of California voters know enough about Harris to have an opinion about her, according to the poll. That's a stratospheric level of name identification in an enormous state where lesser-known candidates must spend tens of millions of dollars in hopes of raising their profile.

Voters' views of Harris, a former U.S. senator, state attorney general and San Francisco district attorney, are split, with 50% having a positive image of the Bay Area native, compared with 46% holding a negative impression, according to the poll. She drew stronger support from voters who tend to cast ballots more frequently in statewide elections — women, younger and older voters, and residents of the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

Voters' views of Harris varied dramatically over the past 15 years. She barely won the state attorney general's race in 2010 and was unknown by a large segment of voters, DiCamillo said. By the time Harris ran for the U.S. Senate in 2016, she was viewed favorably by the state's voters, though many did not know enough about her to offer an opinion.

"As she settled into her job as U.S. senator, people started to pay more attention to her. Obviously, she was getting a lot of attention when she was grilling Supreme Court nominees," DiCamillo said, with voters becoming far more familiar with Harris and having positive views of her.

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Those impressions sank during her unsuccessful run for president in 2020, improved in the early days of the Biden administration, and then dipped again when she was vice president and assigned intractable issues such as the flow of immigrants fleeing Central America, he said. Her image has improved slightly since then, but is strong among Democrats, frequent voters, women and residents of the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, subgroups that would be critical sources of support if she decides to run for governor.

Harris has kept a relatively low profile since her November loss in the presidential race, but delivered her most full-throated remarks about Trump in late April. Blasting his policies as a betrayal of the nation's founding principles, the former vice president warned of a looming constitutional crisis.

But fellow Democrats have criticized Harris for not planning on making a decision about whether to run for governor until the end of the summer. Her delayed plans have put the race in limbo and made some deep-pocketed political donors hesitant to write checks.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Harris supporter in prior elections, is among the Democrats running for governor who have publicly expressed frustration about her delay in announcing her intentions.

Harris' team has a "level of arrogance" about their lackadaisical approach to leading a state with the fourth-largest economy in the world, he said in an interview in Sacramento on Tuesday, six days before the poll was published.

"California is not a steppingstone," Villaraigosa said, shortly after speaking at a Jewish Public Affairs Committee of California conference. "Stop playing footsie. Either run for governor or not."

The Berkeley IGS poll surveyed 6,201 California registered voters online in English and Spanish from April 21 to 28, including 611 voters living in the city of Los Angeles. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction in the overall sample, and larger numbers for subgroups. Details of the poll results on Harris and Bass will be made public on Tuesday.