| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Narendra Modi is in Uzbekistan for the SCO meet (pic above), a key Eurasian platform that has brought together the Indian PM and Chinese president Xi Jinping on the same stage, face-to-face, for the time first time since April 2020. As we track the various facets of this meet, we also look at Putin and Xi's changed dynamics, India's careful balancing act by sending naval fleet to Japan and Australia and the latest on Azerbaijan-Armenia war. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Modi attends SCO summit in Samarkand, slated to meet Raisi, Putin in bilateral but skips formal dinner | | It has been a very busy week for global diplomacy. We start off with a summit in Centra Asia at Samarkand, Uzbekistan, which drew global attention by the sheer dint of attendees, at a time when Russia is still stuck in the Ukrainian quagmire and thousands of Indian and Chinese troops are still facing each other, armed to the teeth, in high Himalayas. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Head of States meeting has provided a chance for prime minister Narendra Modi to share the stage with Chinese president Xi Jinping, and perhaps for the first face-to-face meeting since the standoff in Ladakh since April 2020. It also set the stage for Xi, who left Chinese shores for the first time in two years, to meet Vladimir Putin. India has so far given no indication that Modi will meet Xi, though hints have been dropped that a Modi-Putin meet is on the cards. Modi landed on Thursday night and according to an MEA release, was received at the airport by Uzbekistan PM Abdulla Aripov. "On Friday morning (local time), prime minister (Modi) will participate in the SCO Summit and will hold bilateral meetings with the president of Uzbekistan and some of the other leaders attending the summit," added the readout. Times of India reports that Modi "will have bilateral meetings with Putin, Uzbekistan president Shovkat Mirziyoyev and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra neither confirmed nor denied a meeting with Xi. Modi and Xi will be together on Friday in 2 SCO meetings — a restricted session for member-states and another extended one with Observers and others invited — and also join a lunch for participating leaders." In his departure statement, Modi said, "I look forward to exchanging views on topical, regional and international issues, the expansion of SCO and on further deepening of multifaceted and mutually beneficial cooperation within the Organization. Under the Uzbek Chairship, a number of decisions for mutual cooperation are likely to be adopted in areas of trade, economy, culture and tourism." The Hindu reports that "Modi was the last of the leaders of eight SCO members and seven invitees to arrive here, and missed both the pre-summit dinner hosted by Mirziyoyev and tree-planting ceremony that all the leaders other than president Xi undertook, leading to speculation that his late arrival was meant to avoid any inconvenient "photo-ops" while relations with China and Pakistan remain tense." The SCO's permanent members are China, India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan. Chinese state media Global Times has called Modi's attending of the summit, that has raised some questions in the United States an example of "independent diplomacy". | | Putin admits Xi has 'concerns and questions' over Ukraine in first meeting since invasion | | The other big news from SCO is the Xi-Putin meet, their first in-person schmoozing since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The bilateral on the sidelines of the SCO summit took place on Thursday and it threw up a bunch of talking points. In televised remarks, Putin appeared to be going out of his way to show deference to Xi and reiterate Chinese positions. Putin said: "We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis," the Russian resident told Xi, whom he addressed as "Dear Comrade Xi Jinping, dear friend". In remarks that were later released by the Kremlin, Putin added, "we have firmly, in practice, abided by the One China principle. We condemn provocations staged by the United States and its satellites in the Strait of Taiwan." Interestingly, in an indication that Russia-China "no limits" partnership might not be as rosy as it appears, Putin also referred to some "concerns" and "questions" from the Chinese side that would point to some underlying tension in ties. Putin said he understood that Xi Jinping has "questions" and "concerns" regarding the Ukraine crisis and added that "during today's meeting we will certainly explain in detail our position on this issue." Politico points out, quoting China's version of the Xi-Putin meeting, that "there's not a single mention of 'Ukraine' in the readout. It also did not refer to the 'no-limits partnership." According to the Chinese readout released by the ministry of foreign affairs, Xi said China would "China will work with Russia to fulfill their responsibilities as major countries and play a leading role in injecting stability into a world of change and disorder." It does seem that Xi is unhappy with the way Putin's war has been going. However, Xi also "emphasized that China will work with Russia to extend strong mutual support on issues concerning each other's core interests, and deepen practical cooperation in trade, agriculture, connectivity and other areas." Noticeably, Xi skipped the pre-summit dinner Thursday that was attended by Putin. South China Morning Post reports that "Xi is reported to be meeting Indian prime minister Modi on Friday but the meeting has not been officially confirmed." | | India, China complete disengagement at PP-15, Depsang, Demchok now in focus | | The continuing standoff between Indian Chinese troops in Ladakh saw some positive developments this week with both sides disengaging from Patrolling Point-15 in the Gogra-Hot Springs region of eastern Ladakh Tuesday. Hindustan Times reports that the process involved "front-line troops moving back to rear locations, dismantling of temporary infrastructure created there and joint verification to assess the full implementation of the disengagement to follow, officials familiar with the matter said. This is the fourth round of disengagement between the Indian Army and Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) after the border row erupted in May 2020, and its completion has now turned the spotlight on frictions areas that are still unresolved along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – Depsang and Demchok, said one of the officials cited above asking not to be named." The Hindu adds: "while India maintains that friction points at Demchok and Depsang remain, China has refused to accept them as legacy issues pre-dating the 2020 standoff. Demchok is one of the two mutually agreed disputed areas in Eastern Ladakh, while Depsang is one of the eight friction points in the area. In Demchok, while there are varying claims in the Charding La area, China has set up tents on this side of Charding nala." Possibly for this reason India hasn't sounded too enthusiastic over the latest development, with external affairs minister S Jaishankar saying that "I don't think I would say anything new… except I would recognise that we had disengagement at PP-15 and that disengagement as I understand was completed and that is one problem less on the border." | | Modi at SCO; Navy conducts 'JIMEX' with Japan, 'Kakadu' with Australia; IAF completes 'Pitch Black' | | While prime minister Narendra Modi is in Uzbekistan for the SCO meet, Indian troops are engaging with Japan, Australia for war games — indicating the panache with which India is balancing different geopolitical blocs. As Modi sits down with Putin, who is at war with the West, "India and Japan are now conducting the bilateral `JIMEX' naval combat exercise in the Bay of Bengal, even as an Indian warship and maritime patrol aircraft have also reached to take part in the multi-nation `Kakadu' wargames there… The two exercises are a reminder of the way India has stepped up defence ties with the other two `Quad' countries of Japan and Australia in a major way, which add to the already existing flurry of exercises with the US every year", reports Times of India. Indian Express adds: "The JIMEX began in January 2012 with a special focus on maritime security cooperation between India and Japan. Its last edition was conducted in October 2021 in the Arabian Sea. Rear Admiral Hirata Toshiyuki, Commander of the Escort Flotilla Four leads the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) ships that include the helicopter carrier Izumo and guided-missile destroyer Takanami. From the Indian Navy, stealth multi-role frigate INS Sahyadri and anti-submarine warfare corvettes INS Kadmatt and INS Kavaratti led by Rear Admiral Sanjay Bhalla, Flag Officer Commanding Eastern Fleet, are participating in the exercise." Meanwhile, "INS Satpura and a maritime patrol aircraft of the Indian Navy have reached Darwin on September 12 in Australia to take part in multinational Exercise Kakadu-2022, hosted by the Royal Australian Navy," The Print reports, quoting India's defence ministry. "The two week-long exercise, both in harbour and sea, involves ships and maritime aircraft from 14 navies. During the harbour phase of the exercise, the ship's crew will engage in operational planning interactions and sports activities with participating navies," says the report, quoting a statement. Earlier on Tuesday, an Indian Air Force contingent flew home from Australia. For the last three weeks, it has been taking part in an air warfare drill, Exercise Pitch Black. Indian Express reports, "Organised by the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), Exercise Pitch Black this year included air forces from 17 countries including India, and saw participation of 100 aircraft and 2,500 personnel operating primarily from RAAF Bases in Darwin, Tindal and Amberley." | | Azerbaijan, Armenia declare ceasefire after another eruption of border clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh | | In 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a fierce war for more than six weeks in what came to be known as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, resulting in the death of over 5000 soldiers from both sides. That war has erupted again. BBC reports that since Monday more than 100 Armenian soldiers have been killed in border clashes with Azerbaijan, quoting Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan. "Azerbaijan said on Thursday that 71 of its troops had been killed, in fighting which both sides blame on the other. It is the latest in a series of long-running conflicts fought between the two former Soviet republics over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region." In 2020, says Reuters in a report, "Azerbaijan had won significant territorial gains in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting was ended by a Russian-brokered ceasefire, but skirmishes have erupted periodically since then despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers. In the latest flare-up, Yerevan said several Armenian towns were attacked overnight. Azerbaijan said it was responding to Armenian provocations." On Tuesday, Russia announced "that it had negotiated a ceasefire following fighting that killed at least 100 Azerbaijani and Armenian troops. But on Wednesday, Armenia's Defence Ministry said "the enemy re-launched its attack by using artillery, mortar, large-calibre firearms in the directions of Jermuk, Verin Shorzha" on the border." Associated Press reports that another peace attempt has been made and quoting Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of Armenia's Security Council, reported the announcement of a truce on Wednesday. A previous cease-fire that Russia brokered Tuesday quickly failed. "Several hours before Grigoryan's announcement, Armenia's Defense Ministry reported that shelling had ceased but it didn't mention the cease-fire deal. The cease-fire declaration followed two days of heavy fighting that marked the largest outbreak of hostilities between the two longtime adversaries in nearly two years. Late Wednesday, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Armenia's capital accusing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of betraying his country by trying to appease Azerbaijan and demanding his resignation." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Chinese public impressed by Modi's foreign policy | | MS Ptahibha of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, writes in Indian Express that Chinese public opinion about India, and especially Prime Minister Modi, has changed in the wake of India's principled stand on the Ukraine crisis. India's assertion of an independent foreign policy has generated much discussion online in China. | | What Modi's SCO attendance says about India | | Hindustan Times in an editorial argues that prime minister Modi's presence in the SCO meet at Samarkand shows India is engaging with the world on its own terms. | | Putin discovers 'limits' of Xi's friendship | | Clara Ferreira Marques writes in Bloomberg that in his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's leader Vladimir Putin got mostly hot air. | | Ideology of 'nonalignment' dead long ago | | Western leaders should ignore the widespread rhetoric about a global south "unwilling to choose" and focus instead on the individual concerns, vulnerabilities, and interests of key states in the developing world, C Raja Mohan of Asia Society Policy Institute writes in Foreign Policy. | | Xi will increasingly make China look like North Korea | | Cai Xia, who was a professor at the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party from 1998 to 2012 before she was expelled from the party and now resides in the US, writes in Foreign Policy that while Xi may be able to secure a third term as president despite growing elite dissent within the party, he will China look increasingly like North Korea. | | 'PP-15 disengagement a no-win for either side' | | Lieutenant General Rakesh Sharma (retd) tells Archana Masih of Rediff in an interview that the disengagement from PP-15 in Ladakh is a "no-win situation for either side." | | US back to old game of 'balancing' India and Pakistan | | Former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal writes in News18 that America's contention, that in providing "upgrades" to Pakistan F-16 fleet it is not changing "the military balance in the region, as stated in the Stae Department's release, suggests that the idea of 'balancing' India and Pakistan has resurfaced in US diplomacy in the region." | | We need a rethink on engineering of free-flowing rivers | | On the Teesta river impasse between India and Bangladesh, Sanjib Baruah, professor of political studies at Bard College, New York, writes in Indian Express that "it is time we consider having a moratorium on the engineering of the world's last remaining free-flowing rivers–some of which fortunately, are in these parts of the world -- and rethink the framework of regional cooperation on water-related matters." | | India, Japan ties set to get deeper | | Sujan Chinoy, a former ambassador to Japan, writes in Indian Express that India's emergence as the fifth-largest as well as the fastest-growing economy in the world will definitely ensure a further quantum leap in strategic ties with Japan. | | India has hit geopolitical sweet spot | | "India has a lot going for it, with its economy doing relatively well and its diplomacy bringing the West closer despite some points of difference, even as China falls out of favour with the West', argues Harsh Pant, professor of international relations, King's College London, in Livemint. | | PODCAST | | What is China's gameplan after PP15 disengagement? | | In light of Indian and Chinese troops disengaging from Gogra Hot Springs area in Ladakh, in this episode of StratNews Global's podcast, host Nitin Gokhale speaks to China watcher Jayadeva Ranade and former commander of 14 Corps Lt Gen. Rakesh Sharma (Retd) to get a sense of the Chinese game plan and what lies ahead. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
