| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Shocking news came out of Japan this morning as we came to know that ex-prime minister Shinzo Abe has been killed. He was shot at while campaigning for election and later succumbed to his injuries. Abe was a giant in world politics and a dear friend of India. His death leaves a huge void. We kick off this edition though with British PM Boris Johnson's exit and highlight other notable events of this week. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Boris Johnson finally runs out of luck and lives to announce his resignation as British PM | | They say cats have nine lives. Boris Johnson had 18. But the British prime minister, known for his miraculous survival skills, finally ran out of luck and lives Thursday as he was forced to resign after 60 members of his government, including five cabinet ministers, quit in a span of 48 hours. Johnson has quit as Tory leader but wants to stay in 'caretaker' capacity in 10 Downing Street until his party chooses a new leader, that could keep him in office till October. Such is the loss of confidence in him however that a section of his own party members — including, of course, the Opposition — want him to quit right now. London's Evening Standard newspaper says Johnson's decision to still cling on to his chair "was blasted by several senior Tories, with some suggesting deputy PM Dominic Raab should take over until Johnson's successor is found." Johnson's fate was sealed when on Tuesday, British finance minister Rishi Sunak and health minister Sajid Javid sent resignation letters within minutes of each other, taking at his ability to run an administration with competence. Here are Sunak and Javid's resignation letters. Even at that point of time, as Reuters reported, Johnson was still signalling that he would stay on and fight as he quickly appointed education minister, Nadhim Zahawi, as his new finance minister and gave health portfolio to Steve Barclay. But by dawn, says The Telegraph, Johnson was working on his resignation speech. 'He is a fighter – his instinct was to have one last go at it, which he did,' said one ally who has been at Johnson's side throughout the last 48 hours and talked to him first thing. 'It didn't work. He woke up this morning and realised the game was up'." In his resignation speech, that was described as "bizarre" and lacking in contrition by Conservative lawmakers, Johnson said his departure was owing "herd instinct" at Westminster. The Times said Johnson, "who drove through profound changes to the UK and led the nation through its biggest postwar crises, was ultimately undone by that most mundane staple of British political life: a sleaze scandal and a cover-up." Associated Press has a timeline of BoJo's career. The focus now shifts to who could replace Johnson with The Independent reporting that British defence secretary Ben Wallace has emerged as the frontrunner. As leaders jockey for positions, chairman of Britain's foreign affairs committee and a former soldier Tom Tugendhat has thrown his hat into the ring to become the next British PM through a column in The Telegraph, where he wrote, "This nation needs a clean start and a government that will make trust, service and an unrelenting focus on the cost of living crisis its guiding principles." | | Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe dies after being shot at during election campaign | | In shocking news coming out of Japan, former prime minister Shinzo Abe was shot at Friday and left fighting for life. Local media reports, according to AFP, say the ex-premier is showing "no vital signs". According to latest updates, Abe is no more. Earlier, local media including national broadcaster NHK and the Kyodo news agency said the former prime minister appeared to be in "cardiorespiratory arrest," a term often used in Japan before a feared death can be officially confirmed by a coroner. The shooter, identified as Tetsuya Yamagami, 40, used a gun that he appears to have made himself, according to Japan's public broadcaster NHK, reports CNN. The man did not attempt to run away. He is being held for questioning at Nara Nishi police station, reports CNN via NHK. Asia Nikkei adds that the suspect is a former member of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force. Quoting the Nara City Fire Department, the report says Abe was unconscious and was thought to be in cardiac arrest. Officials from his Liberal Democratic Party said the former prime minister was attacked from behind, and initially that the weapon seemed to be a shotgun. Police sources later said that it appeared to be a homemade gun. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida said that the reasons for the shooting were not clear, but described the upcoming elections as "the very foundation of democracy" and said the attack "cannot be tolerated". Kishida described the shooting as "barbaric and malicious". "I would like to use the harshest words available to condemn this act," he said, according to a report in Guardian. The former Japanese prime minister is a friend of India and holds formidable legacy in lifting and advancing bilateral ties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to it in a tweet where he wrote, "Deeply distressed by the attack on my dear friend Abe Shinzo. Our thoughts and prayers are with him, his family, and the people of Japan." Reactions to the shocking incident are pouring in from all across the world. Abe, who left office in 2020, is still a lower house lawmaker and leads the biggest faction in the ruling party, making him one of the country's most influential politicians, says Asia Nikkei. As a 'grand strategist', Abe is a giant in world politics and is thought to be the author of Indo-Pacific policy framework. | | PM Modi wishes the Dalai Lama on his 87th birthday, draws China's ire | | On the Dalai Lama's 87th birthday on Wednesday, prime minister Narendra Modi dialled his number to extend his wishes. In a tweet, the prime minister said, "Conveyed 87th birthday greetings to His Holiness the @DalaiLama (sic) over phone earlier today. We pray for his long life and good health." Hindustan Times reports that the Tibetan spiritual leader's "birthday was celebrated at the main Buddhist temple Tsuglagkhang in Dharamshala town of Himachal Pradesh, where chief minister Jairam Thakur took part virtually as the chief guest. In a video shared by news agency ANI, Hollywood actor Richard Gere was also seen participating in celebrations organised by the Central Tibetan Admn of Tibetan govt-in-exile." Several chief ministers and Union ministers also extended their wishes to the Dalai Lama. China considers the Dalai Lama as a "separatist", and India has in the past sent mixed signals to its neighbour on the issue — sometimes engaging publicly with the Tibetan spiritual leader and at other times refraining from doing so. Modi's wishing and public message, therefore, carries diplomatic significance and is possibly a subtle message to China that "respecting sensitivities" can't be a one-way street and bilateral ties can't be normalised if the border standoff remains unresolved. US secretary Antony Blinken also sent his greetings to the Dalai Lama and expectedly, China hit back. At a press conference in Beijing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson asked the US to "refrain from all forms of contact with Dalai and stop sending wrong signals to the world." To India, he said "the Indian side also needs to fully understand the anti-China and separatist nature of the 14th Dalai Lama. It needs to abide by its commitments to China on Tibet-related issues, act and speak with prudence and stop using Tibet-related issues to interfere in China's internal affairs." In reply, MEA spokesperson said "the PM did speak with the Dalai Lama last year also, it has been a consistent policy of our government to treat him as a guest in India and as a respected religious leader who enjoys a large following in India… His Holiness is accorded all due courtesies and freedom to conduct his religious and spiritual activities in India… The birthday greetings by the prime minister to his Holiness on his 87th birthday should be seen in this overall context." | | Jaishankar meets Chinese FM Wang, discusses Indian students' plight, LAC disengagement | | External affairs minister S Jaishankar is in Bali, Indonesia, where he is taking part from July 7-8 in the G20 foreign ministers' meeting (FMM) hosted by the Indonesian foreign ministry within the framework of Indonesia's G20 presidency. As an MEA release stated, on menu at the discussion are strengthening multilateralism and current global challenges including food and energy security. Jaishankar has held and will hold several bilaterals with his counterparts but the most notable among all was his hour-long engagement with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, post which the Indian foreign minister tweeted that discussions "focused on specific outstanding issues in our bilateral relationship pertaining to the border situation" and he also "spoke about other matters including students and flights" and "shared perspectives on the international situation and its impact on the G20 deliberations." The MEA statement of the Jaishankar-Wang meeting added that Jaishankar "called for an early resolution of all the outstanding issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. Recalling the disengagement achieved in some friction areas, EAM reiterated the need to sustain the momentum to complete disengagement from all the remaining areas to restore peace and tranquility in the border areas. He reaffirmed the importance of fully abiding by bilateral agreements and protocols, and the understandings reached between the two Ministers during their previous conversations… EAM reiterated that India-China relationship is best served by observing the three mutuals – mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interests." The Chinese readout makes no mention of disengagement at friction points. It quoted Wang as saying that "the two countries should push for the early return of bilateral relations to the right track. An Indian poet has said, 'Darkness does not go away on its own; a lamp that has gone out must be rekindled.' Let's light up the bright future of bilateral relations together." | | Modi says India favours dialogue, diplomacy, in phone call with Putin | | Last week, prime minister Modi spoke to Russian president Vladimir Putin over the phone. Indian Express reports that this was "their fourth telephone conversation since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. They discussed the situation in Ukraine where Modi reiterated India's position on dialogue and diplomacy. They previously spoke on the phone on February 24, March 2 and March 7—when Indian citizens, mostly students, were still stuck in Ukraine." According to an MEA release, "The two leaders reviewed the implementation of the decisions taken during President Putin's visit to India in December 2021. In particular, they exchanged ideas on how bilateral trade in agricultural goods, fertilizers and pharma products could be encouraged further. The leaders also discussed global issues, including the state of the international energy and food markets. In the context of the ongoing situation in Ukraine, Prime Minister reiterated India's long-standing position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy." Times of India says, quoting "Russian authorities" that the phone call was held at Modi's request, and "Putin briefed him on the key aspects of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, emphasising the dangerous and provocative nature of the line of the Kyiv regime and its Western patrons aimed at escalating the crisis and disrupting efforts to resolve it politically and diplomatically". Bloomberg reports that "China spent $18.9 billion on Russian oil, gas and coal in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier, latest customs data show. And in the same period, India shelled out $5.1 billion, more than five times the value of a year ago. That's an extra $13 billion in revenue from both countries compared to the same months in 2021." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Boris Johnson blew up a revolutionary mandate | | Aris Roussinos, writing in Unherd on Boris Johnson's exit, observes that "no one in living memory can have squandered such a far-reaching and revolutionary mandate for reform through such petty and absurd personal failings." | | Britain needs a calm leader with solid judgement | | Gideon Rachman writes in Financial Times that "Britain's next leader will need calm, solid judgment, an ability to build relationships with allies and an understanding of the risks involved…But looking at the field of contenders already jostling to succeed Johnson, it is hard to be optimistic…" | | West now appears politically unstable to allies in Asia | | Ben Bland of Chatham House, a British think tank, writes in Financial Times that "'Political risk' has traditionally been the lens through which western governments and businesses analyse the outside world… Many Asian governments and companies are now looking back at us through this same lens. In conversations with senior Asian officials, they keep raising one overarching concern: can we count on the UK, Europe and the US to stay engaged when they are facing so many problems at home?" | | The geopolitical reality of West Asia | | Mohammed Soliman, a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute, writes in The National Interest that "the future Indo-Abrahamic bloc will not just be a strategic anchor of U.S. interests in the region; it will be the basis of a favorable balance of power that maintains peace and security in West Asia." | | Western sanctions have had little effect on Putin's war | | Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney writes in The Hill that "the principal lesson from the Russian aggression is that US president Joe Biden's threats to inflict severe economic punishment failed to deter Russian president Vladimir Putin from launching an all-out invasion. And that the Western imposition of sanctions has had little effect on Russia's war effort." | | Germany can now be called the sick man of Europe | | Writing in The Telegraph, Ben Wright proposes that Germany is the sick man of Europe. He writes that unlike Britain "Germany's issues… are more structural. Having been masked for decades by the euro – which, compared to the traditional strength of the Deutsche Mark, made German goods more competitive abroad – hidden flaws are now bursting into the open. The question is whether the country's economic model can survive and, if not, what that might mean for the eurozone." | | China might be planning to stir up trouble again at LAC | | Antara Ghosal Singh of the Observer Research Foundation writes in the China Brief issue of Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy that "the present Chinese discourse on India is very similar to that seen in the run up to the Galwan Valley clash in June 2020… suggesting that there is a possibility of China once again stirring up trouble at the LAC or taking other punitive actions against India in the coming days." | | Strategic integration of Asian and European theatres has begun | | C Raja Mohan of Asia Society Policy Institute writes in Indian Express that the "strategic integration of the Asian and European geopolitical theatres has now begun" due to "the egregious expansionism of Russia and China. Whether they like it or not, all countries in Europe and Asia will have to deal with the consequences." | | America's caste narrative is fake | | Geneticist Razib Khan writes in Unherd that "if you listen to NPR or read The Atlantic, The New York Times and The Washington Post, you might think that Indians who live in the US, immigrants and their native-born children, are determined to impose the subcontinent's caste system on North America… It all makes for a rather disconcerting narrative. The only problem is that it's almost certainly wrong." | | America needs to fix its politics | | Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at the ORF, writes in Hindustan Times that "the US continues to possess enormous geopolitical power… But it's no secret that it has its problems: The anti-immigrant sentiment is high, inequality is rising, racism persists, and gun violence is out of control. But to fix these, it needs to repair its politics, which can poison the whole system." | | PODCAST WATCH | | NATO and its blueprint for Russia and China | | Worth listening to this edition of 'The Gist' podcast of Stratnews Global where Jagannath Panda of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy speaks to host Amitabh Revi on NATO's Madrid Summit blueprint in declaring Russia its "most significant and direct threat", and recognising China's "stated ambitions and coercive policies" as a threat to the alliance's interests, security and values. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
