| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Xi Jinping, in a phone call, apparently threatened Joe Biden 'not to play with fire' over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (pic above) reported visit to Taiwan. Xi also held a crucial workshop for party cadres earlier this week on the next five years of China's progress that virtually seals the debate over his third term at the helm. Elsewhere, we look at the trouble brewing in Pakistan, post-Draghi Italy, and the executions carried out by Myanmar junta. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Don't play with fire, Xi warns Biden over phone in reference to Pelosi's possible trip to Taiwan | | US President Joe Biden finally held a telephone conversation with Chinese president Xi Jinping on Thursday, ostensibly to tamp down the temperature but the over two-hour call generated headlines of Xi telling Biden "not to play with fire" over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan. Pelosi hasn't confirmed her visit — which was originally scheduled for April but was postponed after the Democratic leader tested positive for Covid 19 — but the very fact that she hasn't yet announced a cancellation has caused China to threat of "dire consequences" and the Biden administration to sweat under the collar. The readouts issued by the two sides were as different as chalk and cheese. The Chinese readout, lengthier of the two, claims Xi told Biden: "The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this. The US should honor the one-China principle and implement the three joint communiqués both in word and in deed." In its brief readout, the White House said, "On Taiwan, President Biden underscored that the United States policy has not changed and that the United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." Though global headlines have been focused on the fire and brimstone threat from Xi, it is not clear whether the Chinese president actually uttered those words in conversation with Biden, or the readout is aimed at a domestic audience where Xi must show 'strength' and brook 'no compromise' on the Taiwan issue. South China Morning Post says "despite the stern rhetoric, each leader viewed the conversation as 'candid, in-depth and constructive', the (Chinese) embassy said, adding that both sides had instructed their teams to maintain 'communication and cooperation'." CNN says "the phone call was Biden and Xi's fifth conversation since February 2021… But hopes for substantially improving ties with Beijing were low. Instead, Biden's aides hope maintaining a personal connection with Xi can, at most, avoid a miscalculation that might lead to confrontation." | | Xi holds two-day workshop for Communist Party cadres, sets the agenda for 20th Party Congress | | In a clearest indication yet that Xi Jinping's third term at the helm is a foregone conclusion, the Chinese President held a two-day study session for provincial and ministerial-level Communist Party officials from Tuesday to Wednesday in Beijing where he delivered a pathway for China's progress for the next five years and more. Bill Bishop of Sinocism says that Xi had held a similar workshop in 2017 that "set the tone for the 19th Party Congress, and this meeting is setting the tone for the 20th Party Congress, to be held sometime this Fall… I consider this as yet another in a long string of signals that Xi is going to be very much large and charge at the 20th Party Congress and beyond." Xi's speech is significant on several counts. It shows the absolute power he still holds over the party, going by the powerful people in attendance listening to him in rapt attention, and indicates that internal dissent and China's economic slowdown hasn't dented his authority. Second, he gave a glimpse of the road ahead for China, and stressed in no uncertain terms that the road ahead won't be smooth. "The risks and challenges we are to face and the problems we are to address are more complex than ever before. The whole Party must be more mindful of potential dangers, be always prepared for worst-case scenarios and have a strong will and greater capability to respond to even harder situation," said Xi, according to a translated version of his speech by GRR. According to SCMP, which quoted official news agency Xinhua, "Xi told cadres present at the workshop that 'the upcoming 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is a very important conference that will be held at a critical moment in our new journey of building a socialist, modern country… [We will] discuss in a scientific manner major policies that are related to the future of the party and the country, the future and destiny of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation'." Bloomberg reports that "in comments that appeared only in the Chinese account of the gathering, Xi said 'the party faces various long-term tests in terms of governing, reform and opening up, market economy, as well as the external environment'." | | Khan's party goes to court seeking Shehbaz govt's removal as Pakistan reels from economic crisis | | From China we go to neighbouring Pakistan that is plagued by a crippling economic crisis and political turmoil. The latest wrangle that has introduced another dose of political uncertainty involves the nation's top court that in a ruling on Tuesday handed control of Punjab — Pakistan's most populous, prosperous and politically significant province — to a candidate backed by ousted prime minister Imran Khan. Reuters reports that in a short order, Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled that a Khan-backed candidate for Punjab's chief minister, Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, had been wrongfully denied victory in a vote last week, and ordered he be installed as Punjab CM before midnight on Tuesday. Elahi had been denied victory by the speaker of the Punjab assembly, reports Reuters. The ruling gave Khan, who was ousted via a trust vote in April by prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and his allies, fresh momentum. Emboldened by the decision, Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party on Wednesday approached the Lahore high court seeking the dismissal of the Sharif government. Economic Times reports that senior PTI leaders Andleeb Abbas and Hassan Niazi filed a petition seeking the removal of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader from the premier's office along with his cabinet, the petition also requested the Lahore High Court to order the caretaker prime minister to take over. Amid this political one-upmanship, Pakistan's economy is in dire straits. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan's central bank, has sent out an SOS to the government that falling foreign exchange reserves could negatively impact the country's ability to import. Pakistani currency (PKR) has reached a new low against the US dollar on Tuesday, closing at Rs 232.93 in the interbank market while Bloomberg reports that "a severe dollar shortage" due to a "delay in its bailout program from the International Monetary Fund" has raised concerns that Pakistan could follow Sri Lanka into a default this year. The nation has also banned multiple imports to curb dollar outflow that has resulted in a parts shortage at Toyota and Suzuki's local units and plan to stop production for multiple days next month." Rating agency S&P on Thursday downgraded Pakistan's credit outlook to negative from neutral. | | Myanmar's military junta executes four 'pro-democracy' activists, drawing global condemnations | | Myanmar's military junta has executed four pro-democracy activists in the troubled nation, drawing global condemnation. New York Times reports, "Myanmar's military regime announced Monday that it had executed four pro-democracy activists, the first executions in the Southeast Asian nation in more than three decades and what was seen as the latest attempt to instill fear in a resistance movement that has continued to battle the junta since it seized power in a coup last year. The four activists were sentenced to death earlier this year during closed-door trials in a military court without attorneys present. They were executed in secret on Saturday for what the regime called 'brutal and inhumane terror acts,' charges that their defenders have said were unfounded." BBC's Burmese service reported that pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who lies imprisoned after getting upstaged in a coup d'état in 2021, "was very sad after hearing the news." The UN Security Council has condemned the executions of veteran democracy activist Kyaw Min Yu, better known as Ko Jimmy, and former National League for Democracy lawmaker Phyo Zayar along with Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw, reports CNN quoting state media. Phyo Zayar, or Phyo Zeya Thaw, was a Burmese hip-hop pioneer whose democracy-affirming lyrics led to a career in Parliament, wrote New York Times. India on Thursday expressed "deep concern" over the executions and the G7 nations in a statement, have said "these executions, the first in Myanmar in over 30 years, and the absence of fair trials show the junta's contempt for the unwavering democratic aspirations of the people of Myanmar." | | Rising star of Italy's nationalist right Giorgia Meloni may become the next PM after Mario Draghi resigns | | Italian prime minister Mario Draghi resigned last week, a year and a half after he was appointed to lead a unity government, and it now seems that in the ensuing elections slated to take place in September this year, Italy may get its first right-wing leader in Giorgia Meloni, the rising star of Italy's nationalist right. The Times, London, observes, "Meloni's 'Brothers of Italy' party is topping the polls, raising the prospect of the 45-year-old former journalist taking power at the head of a right-wing coalition. Success on September 25 after a brief campaign fought while most Italians are on holiday could give the country not only its first female leader but also its first from a party that can trace its roots back to Benito Mussolini — just in time for the 100th anniversary in October of the March on Rome that brought the Fascist dictator to power." The report further adds, "like most, Meloni is anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic and critical of what the Italians call pensiero unico (single thought) — a term signifying something politically correct or woke. But she is also an Atlanticist keen to dispel fears in Europe about the Italian right's admiration of President Putin." Bloomberg adds, "an alliance led by Meloni's Brothers of Italy, which includes Matteo Salvini's League and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, has a wide lead in opinion polls ahead of the September 25 general election. If other forces are divided, this might lead close to a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament, according to an analysis by Youtrend/CattaneoZanetto & Co." German outlet DW has a profile on Meloni and this column in The Conversation on why Draghi's government fell, and the machinations behind his fall, is worth a read. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | 'Schemer' Ranil Wickremesinghe can't save Sri Lanka | | Sri Lankan journalist Kalinga Seneviratne writes in South China Morning Post that "Ranil Wickremesinghe, a five-time PM who has never completed a full term in office, only gained the presidency via horse-trading and with Western help. He claims he can schmooze the IMF, but Sri Lanka would be better served if India and China stepped up and worked with Russia to craft a BRICS bailout." | | In China, the Sri Lankan crisis finds no sympathy | | Scholar Antara Ghosal Singh of Observer Research Foundation writes that unlike the rest of the world, Sri Lanka's perception in China is negative. The popular discourse in China on the Lankan crisis is that the island nation "took advantage" of China, used it as an ATM, and is now "publicly embarrassing China". | | Many low-income nations may go the Sri Lanka way | | Megan Greene writes in Financial Times that Sri Lanka will not be the last country to have to choose to between subsidising essentials and paying creditors. Many low-and middle-income countries (such as Pakistan, Ghana, Egypt) are suffering from high food and fuel costs. | | Rhetoric has overtaken America's China policy | | "Joe Biden has repeatedly said that the US should help Taiwan defend itself. He has argued that America must stand with the world's democracies against autocratic aggression. The problem is that Washington's China rhetoric has overtaken its China policy, and the US is badly positioned for a prospective crisis over Taiwan", writes Hal Brands in Bloomberg. | | We will soon see an even stronger, bolder, more ambitious Xi Jinping | | Yun Sun of Stimson Center writes in Foreign Affairs magazine that the world may see a bolder, more ambitious Xi Jinping after he secures another term at the 20th Party Congress. "A strengthened Xi is not going to be more moderate. He will have less to prove to his domestic audience." | | Putin's gameplan in Iran | | Vali Kaleji, Tehran-based expert on Central Asia and Caucasian Studies in Tehran, writes in The Jamestown Foundation on Russian president Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Iran that "Russia hopes to use multimodal transportation (road, rail and sea transport) from the routes of Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus to Chabahar Port in the Gulf of Oman and Bandar Abbas in the Persian Gulf to circumvent transit restrictions caused by the war." | | Mario Draghi's policies have left Italy in tatters | | Thomas Fazi writes in Unherd that no matter what the western liberal establishment may claim, now-resigned Italian PM Mario Draghi left the country in tatters, and he and his neoliberal policies and ideological are to be blamed for making Italy one giant mess. | | Liz Truss, not Rishi Sunak, is the right choice | | Robert Shrimsley argues in Financial Times that Liz Truss is the right choice among Tories to lead Britain. "The Tories no longer have any time for inconvenient facts or for any strategy other than doubling down on tax cuts and pure Brexit. She will be more convincing in this role." | | Cheap riding by Europeans is affecting US alliances in Asia | | Justin Logan of the Cato Institute writes in Foreign Policy that the "US cannot maintain its role as the cornerstone of European security while successfully competing with a growing China forever. And the cheap-riding that afflicts the US alliance in Europe also addles its alliances in Asia." | | The world has turned a blind eye to the atrocities in Myanmar | | Me Me Khant, a Burmese poet, activist, executive director and co-founder of Students for Free Burma, writes in The Diplomat that the "war in Ukraine has shown how much a strong international response and severe sanctions can do to deter authoritarian injustice. Yet, we in Myanmar cannot even dream of such support. We are only asking that the international community completely disengage with the junta and not further fuel the machine that is killing us. Is that really too much to ask?" | | PODCAST WATCH | | Road ahead for Italy after Draghi | | In this edition of Centre for European Reform podcast, Rosie Giorgi spoke to Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the CER about Draghi's resignation as Italian PM; the hard-right firebrand Giorgia Meloni, who's tipped to replace him; and what a (probable) right-wing coalition government could mean for Italy's relationship with the EU and Rome's foreign policy. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
