| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | This week's edition looks at all the major developments in Indian subcontinent where Pakistan and Sri Lanka's travails have deepened. We also look at repercussions of Ukraine war and explore India's trade deal with Australia. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Pakistan SC restores Parliament, orders no-trust vote, delivers a stunning blow to Imran | | Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan thought he'd pull a fast one by undermining the country's Constitution, tearing apart all legalities, pulverizing the nation's Parliamentary process and undermining its fragile democracy — all for his quest to remain in power. To avoid getting booted out via a no-confidence motion brought by the Opposition, on Sunday Khan had got the puppet deputy Speaker Qasim Suri — a member of the ruling party — to dismiss the no-confidence vote on dubious grounds of "foreign interference", and within minutes of that decision that stunned the entire Opposition, Khan appeared on TV and announced to the public that he had advised President Arif Alvi to dissolve the National Assembly and call for fresh elections. As Pakistan plunged into a Constitutional crisis to satisfy the ego of one man, the Opposition went to the Supreme Court to get the charade canceled, while Khan said he is ready for fresh elections — secure in the belief that his Islamist campaign and anti-American pitch where he framed himself as the victim of an elaborate "American conspiracy to oust him" — would be enough to secure him another term at the helm. On Thursday, after days of suspense, Pakistan's top court quashed Khan's elaborate plans and dealt him a stunning blow by ruling that the deputy Speaker's actions were "Unconstitutional". A five-judge bench of Pakistan's Supreme Court led by chief justice Umar Ata Bandial, "set aside deputy speaker's ruling to dismiss the no-trust resolution against prime minister Khan and the subsequent dissolution of the National Assembly on the PM's advice" in a 5-0 ruling, according to a report in Dawn. The court's verdict restored Khan as the prime minister and his Cabinet in their position and also restored the Parliament. The bench "ordered the Speaker to call the session of the Assembly on April 9 at 10am (Pakistan time) to organise the no-confidence vote. The Opposition has said it has 172 votes in the 340-seat House to oust Mr. Khan, after several members of his own party and a key coalition partner defected." Reuters adds that if Khan were to lose the no-confidence vote, the Opposition could nominate its own prime minister and hold power until August 2023, by which date fresh elections have to be held. Shehbaz Sharif — the brother of exiled former prime minister Nawaz — said after the court ruling that allies in the opposition had nominated him to take over. Imran, meanwhile, has summoned a session of his freshly restored federal cabinet for Friday and will also address the nation. No one expects him to give up without another fight. | | Prez Gotabaya refuses to resign as Sri Lanka's economic meltdown sparks a full-blown political crisis | | Readers of this newsletter will know that Sri Lanka is facing its worst-ever economic crisis. Over the past week, the crisis turned grimmer and resulted also in a full-blown political crisis with Preisdent Gotabaya Rajapaksa's government losing its majority in Parliament, entire cabinet resigning, lawmakers of his own party walking out and the country breaking out in revolt. On April 1, president Gotabaya had declared an Emergency as thousands of people came out on the streets to protest the crippling power cuts and shortages of fuel and essential commodities caused by the country's economic meltdown. The island nation, that relies heavily on imports, no longer has enough dollar reserves to buy essential items like paper, food, fuel to power vehicles or even generate electricity. On Tuesday, Gotabaya was forced to revoke the state of emergency after dozens of lawmakers walked out of the ruling coalition, leaving his government in a minority in Parliament. In a measure of the crisis, finance minister Ali Sabry resigned just a day after his appointment ahead of crucial talks scheduled with the International Monetary Fund for a loan programme while a doctors' body sounded alarm that there was an acute shortage of medicines that could collapse the health system. Rajapaksa had earlier proposed the creation of a unity government, but the main opposition party rejected the idea. Angry Sri Lankans who have repeatedly clashed with the police want the president to resign but Gotabaya has so far refused to do so. Late on Wednesday, Rajapaksa announced a three-member advisory group to help the government in the negotiations with the IMF. The group includes a former central bank governor, a former World Bank and a former IMF official. On Thursday, protesting students broke through police barricades and barged into the health ministry office in Colombo amidst shortage of medicines and fuel, and a grim forecast of starvation. Times of India quoted one of the students, as saying that" "tell India to help us, send us rice and fuel". India is doing all it can to help. On Wednesday, New Delhi "sent two fuel consignments carrying 36,000 tonnes of petrol and 40,000 tonnes of diesel," reported Hindustan Times, quoting figures released by India's high commission. So far, India has supplied "270,000 tonnes of fuels to help ease the power crisis in Sri Lanka after the financial woes led to a shortage of fuels and power cuts". | | Mass killing of civilians in Bucha sparks global outrage, UN votes out Russia from HRC, India abstains | | The UN General Assembly has voted to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council on Thursday, the latest in a series of resolutions denouncing the Ukraine invasion. The move comes after Ukraine and its partners accused Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine. The resolution titled 'Suspension of the rights of membership of the Russian Federation in the Human Rights Council' was adopted with 93 votes in favour, 24 against and 58 abstentions, including India, which said that it is abstaining "for reasons of both substance and process." What drove the move at UN was the grim discovery of mass killings in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, where more than 400 bodies were found, some with their hands bound, flesh burned, and shot in the back of the head. The discoveries have drawn comparisons with the killings of civilians in this area during World War II. Three days after Russian army left the Ukrainian country town, Ukrainian officials and independent photographers reported bodies of civilians strewn in the streets. Ukraine's defense ministry said that during several weeks of Russian occupation of Bucha, "civilians were being executed arbitrarily," their bodies scattered in the streets of the city. While Zelenskyy accused Russian troops of committing "the most terrible war crimes", Russia has denied the accusations, calling it a 'hoax'. New York Times has analyzed satellite imagery to claim that Russian claims were incorrect and that many of the civilians were killed more than three weeks ago, when Russia's military was in control of the town. India Tuesday "unequivocally condemned" the killings as "deeply disturbing" and supported the call for an "independent probe" into the happenings. Times of India notes that "Russia became the first P-5 country to be suspended from any UN body and also the only country apart from Libya in 2011 to be removed from the 47-member top human rights body." | | US, India announce 2+2 meeting as New Delhi, Washington grapple with divergences on Russia | | India and US will hold ministerial 2+2 talks on 11 April, according to official statements from the country's external affairs ministry and the US state department. The Indian delegation will be led by Home Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Jaishankar and the US will be represented by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defence Llyod Austin. According to India's ministry of external affairs, "the dialogue would enable both sides to undertake a comprehensive review of cross-cutting issues in the India-US bilateral agenda related to foreign policy, defence and security…", reports Livemint. The MEA readout says as part of an ongoing and regular dialogue, Jaishankar will separately meet US counterpart Blinken. The meeting, however, may be overshadowed by the ongoing Ukraine war, where India and America's interests have diverged and seems to be on a collision course. On Wednesday, US president Joe Biden's top economic adviser said the administration has warned India against aligning itself with Russia, and that US officials have been "disappointed" with some of New Delhi's reaction to the Ukraine invasion. The report in Bloomberg further states that Washington has told India that the consequences of a "more explicit strategic alignment" with Moscow would be "significant and long-term." A host of American officials have cautioned India on similar lines and, including US defence secretary Lloyd Austin and the White House, that has expressly warned India against buying Russian oil in bulk. Foreign minister S Jaishankar, however, told the Parliament on Wednesday that India will take a decision on buying Russian energy keeping its own interests in mind to give relief to the common man and on Thursday, the MEA spokesperson in a media briefing pointed out that energy flows to Europe are continuing, fertiliser purchasing have been insulated, and India is in discussions with Russia on what kind of payment mechanism can work between both countries. | | India, Australia ink landmark trade deal, hoping to diversify supply chain and create jobs | | "In what is being viewed as a win-win deal for both the countries, India and Australia inked a key pact on Saturday to boost economic ties in an attempt to 'break the trade barriers'. The bilateral trade between the two countries is expected to rise from existing $27 billion $45 billion in the next five years, Union minister Piyush Goyal said as he signed the deal with Australian trade minister Dan Tehan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison attended the virtual event," reports Hindustan Times. Goyal, who went on a three-day tour of Australia following the signing of the deal, told news agency ANI that the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) will help create about 10 lakh jobs in the next 4-5 years, and added that he "won't be surprised if it exceeds further. Indian students will get work visas to work in Australia." Modi called the deal a "watershed moment for bilateral relations," that would "contribute to increasing supply chains resilience and stability of Indo-Pacific region" while Morrison said the pact will further "deepen our close ties." Australian newspaper ABC News wrote that the agreement will diversify Australia's export markets and "reduce Australia's economic dependence on China by opening up new opportunities in a large and expanding economy." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Imran should ask himself why his govt became so unpopular | | Pakistan-based journalist Mehmal Sarfraz writes in Indian Express that instead of engineering a coup, Imran Khan should have asked himself why his government had become so unpopular that even allies and party members did not want him to complete his full term. | | Pakistan's hidden dyarchy imparts a fundamental instability to polity | | TCA Raghavan, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, writes in Times of India that developments in Pakistan exposes yet again the fact that "the army's favoured and chosen heads of government end up reading from a different script time after time. This is a structural feature in the country's history and suggests the existence of an almost hidden 'dyarchy' that imparts a fundamental instability to Pakistan's polity." | | The roots of Sri Lanka's unprecedented crisis | | In The Hindu, Meera Srinivasan explains the roots of Sri Lanka's current crisis, how the island's economy, which was already reeling from the shock of the Easter Sunday bombings, was brought to its knees by COVID-19, an ill-advised agricultural policy and misguided economic decisions. | | Explaining India's policy position and compulsions on Ukraine war | | In Firstpost, we write that on Ukraine war, what we have seen from India so far "is the fullest expression of strategic autonomy — a posture that relies on diplomatic activism, geopolitical pragmatism, prioritizing national interests over bloc politics and maintaining good relationships with all sides so that these relationships can be leveraged to eke out the best possible outcome for India, even amid moments of global turmoil." | | China will not abandon Russia | | Chinese scholar Yun Sun of the Stimson Center argues that "China's initial stage of confusion over Ukraine war is over. What has emerged is a clear dual strategy of 'not opposing Russia' and 'not abandoning Ukraine.' While many in China are cognizant of the costs the country will carry for its alignment with Russia, mainstream scholars and senior leaders are increasingly convinced that the war in Ukraine presents a 'window of strategic opportunity,' especially in terms of U.S.-China relations. In other words, China will not abandon Russia." | | Ukraine war not an ideological showdown | | In his piece for Foreign Affairs, former Indian national security advisor Shivshankar Menon tackles the question whether democracies are really united against Russia. He argues that it is wishful thinking. "The war is no doubt a seismic event that will have profound consequences for Russia, its immediate neighbors, and the rest of Europe. But it will neither reshape the global order nor presage an ideological showdown of democracies against China and Russia." | | Punishing Russia has taken precedence over efforts to end the war | | In his column for The Hill, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney argues that "Washington's overriding focus on punishing Russia for its brazen invasion suggests that top US officials are not thinking of how to terminate the war, even as Moscow and Kyiv hold talks. Punishing Russia for invading Ukraine, while essential, has ceased to be a means to an end and has apparently become an end in itself." | | India, US ties remain very healthy and forward-looking | | Donald Lu, a high-ranking diplomat in the US State Department, tells Prashant Jha of Hindustan Times in an interview that the upcoming annual 2+2 in Washington will provide evidence that India-US relationship is very healthy and moving forward. | | Sanctions don't work, says Mexican foreign minister | | Mexican foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard tells Suhasini Haidar of The Hindu that "sanctions don't work, really. Obviously, these countries [sanctioning Russia] have all the freedom to take those decisions. But Mexico will not join this sanctions policy." | | Liberals must not give up on the idea of a nation: Fukuyama | | Political scientist Francis Fukuyama writes in Foreign Affairs that it is very important for "liberals not to give up on the idea of the nation. They should recognize that in truth, nothing makes the universalism of liberalism incompatible with a world of nation-states. National identity is malleable, and it can be shaped to reflect liberal aspirations and to instill a sense of community and purpose among a broad public." | | PODCAST WATCH | | Decoding India's reaction to Russian invasion of Ukraine | | Worth listening to this episode of The Realignment podcast where the host speaks to Aparna Pande of the Hudson Institute, author of two books on Indian foreign policy. Professor Pande discusses India's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India's priorities, its ambitions in a multipolar world, and how the country's post-colonial and Cold War history drives its approach to the world. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
