| TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES |
| India, EU move to deepen trade, tech ties; Modi to leave for Germany, Denmark and France |
| European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen's visit to India earlier this week for the Raisina Dialogue was an important marker for India-EU ties at a time when both sides are looking to institutionalising the partnership through various mechanisms, building on a set of shared interests. While Europe is looking to readjust its China ties and focus more on Indo-Pacific — a shift that has quickened owing to China's position on Ukraine war and deepening Sino-Russian strategic relationship — India looks to Europe as an increasingly important strategic partner and wants to intensify trade and economic engagement. To truly exploit the convergence of interests and capitalize on the opportunities, the need for political agreement is paramount, and that is exactly the direction in which ties are moving as Von Der Leyen's visit made it evident. The EU president met prime minister Modi and the two leaders announced signing of the 'EU-India Trade and Technology Council' that "will allow both partners to tackle challenges at the nexus of trade, trusted technology and security, and thus deepen cooperation in these fields between the EU and India," according to the joint statement. Stressing on the importance of the agreement, the statement added: "The decision to set up a Trade and Technology Council will be the first for India with any of its partners and second for the European Union following the first one it has set up with the US." As a report in Atlantic Council points out, "Brussels appears focused on taking its bilateral economic relationship with New Delhi to the next level. In addition to establishing a Trade and Technology Council, the two sides are also restarting negotiations on an FTA, which launched in 2007 but petered out by 2013." No less important is the fact that these decisions were taken despite divergence between India and the EU on Ukraine. India's intent to keep up its end of the bargain is evident from the fact that the prime minister is embarking on a visit to Germany, Denmark and France from May 2-4. India's external affairs ministry readout states that in Berlin, the PM will hold bilateral talks with German chancellor Olaf Scholz and the two leaders will co-chair the sixth edition of the India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations. Modi will then leave for Denmark to participate in the 2nd India-Nordic Summit acting on an invitation of Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen. The meet gives Modi the chance to broadbase India's engagement with other Nordic nation. On his return, the PM "will briefly stop over" in Paris and meet Emmanuel Macron, who has just won a reelection as French president. |
| French president Macron wins reelection but rise of Le Pen bodes a difficult second term |
| In France, president Emmanuel Macron has won a reelection to secure another five years in the French presidential palace by beating far-right rival Marine Le Pen on Sunday, "vowing to tackle the country's 'doubts and divisions' during his second five-year term," according to Financial Times. "Le Pen conceded shortly after the first projections showed Macron winning more than 58 per cent of Sunday's presidential run-off, and said she would fight on with her Rassemblement National party in elections for the National Assembly in June. About 28 per cent of voters did not turn out, the highest level of abstention since 1969." Macron won by 58.55% to Le Pen's 41.45%, a greater margin than expected. BBC reports that the "centrist leader told jubilant supporters at the foot of the Eiffel Tower that now the election was over he would be a 'president for all'. He is the first sitting president in 20 years to be re-elected. Macron's challenges have not ended with electoral victory. As Reuters points out, "if he fails to score another victory in the June 12 and 19 parliamentary elections, the pro-European French president will struggle to advance with his pro-business agenda, including unpopular plans to push back the retirement age." The report adds that "in recent French legislative ballots, the president's party has always won a majority in parliament. Should the outcome be different this time, Macron would have little choice but to name a prime minister from another party, ushering in what has traditionally been a tense period of "cohabitation" during which presidential powers are severely curbed." While Le Pen conceded defeat on Sunday, she told her supporters that the "result represents in itself a dazzling victory" because the amount of votes she won was the highest by a far-right candidate in France's modern history. In a measure of France's polarized climate and a difficult time that awaits the returning president, on Wednesday, three days after celebrating a decisive reelection, Macron was pelted with questions and tomatoes while delivering a victory speech at the Eiffel Tower. |
| 3 Chinese citizens killed in Pakistan by BLA's first female suicide bomber, a mother of 2 |
| A suicide attack in Pakistan resulted in huge geopolitical ramifications. On Tuesday, Pakistani media reported that "at least four people, including three Chinese nationals, were killed while four others were injured in a suicide attack outside the University of Karachi's Confucius Institute. The incident happened as a van, carrying staff members, was about to enter the Confucius Institute, located next to the commerce department. CCTV footage of the attack showed a burqa-clad woman standing outside the entrance of the Confucius Institute. The woman detonated herself just as the van neared the institute's entrance." Video footage of the blast went viral. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) accepted responsibility of the "self-sacrificing attack on Chinese in Karachi", according to a statement attributed to the group's spokesman Jeeyand Baloch published in English on Telegram. A PTI report carried in Hindustan Times states, "Shari Baloch, the suicide bomber who killed three Chinese nationals at the University of Karachi on Tuesday, was a primary school teacher and an academician. A mother of two, the 30-year-old had posted a goodbye message on her Twitter account ten hours before she carried out the attack." BLA is a banned group fighting for the independence of Pakistan's troubled Balochistan province. It often targets Chinese personnel, reports Al Jazeera. The report quotes an email sent by the rebel group to the newspaper, where it says. "Targeting director and officials of Confucius institute, the symbol of Chinese economic, cultural and political expansionism, was to give a clear message to China that its direct or indirect presence in Balochistan will not be tolerated." China responded with alacrity and fury. Chinese foreign ministry called it a "terrorist attack" and "demanded that the Pakistani side should immediately make thorough investigation of the incident" leading Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and his ministerial colleagues to rush to the Chinese embassy and vow "exemplary punishment to the culprits". |
| China in 'deep crisis' as Xi Jinping doubles down on 'zero Covid policy' |
| China is in the middle of a severe Covid crisis, and Xi Jinping is doubling down on a 'zero-Covid' policy and strict lockdowns that has resulted in outrage, chaos and deep shocks to the economy. CNN reports, "China has introduced lockdown measures in its two biggest cities, Beijing and Shanghai — the twin engines that power much of the nation's economy — in an uncompromising bid to stamp out Covid outbreaks. Shanghai is at the center of the latest outbreak, reporting upwards of 10,000 new cases a day. Authorities have responded with a city-wide lockdown that has lasted weeks, confining nearly all 25 million residents of the once-bustling financial hub to their homes or neighborhoods." Authorities in Beijing have "closed schools and suspended weddings and funerals in the city of 22 million in a whirlwind effort to avoid plunging China's capital into a Shanghai-style Covid lockdown… The government is desperate to avoid sweeping measures imposed on Shanghai over the past month, which have caused frustration about shortages of food and basic supplies", reports Guardian. "Analysts estimate that more than 340 million people in China are under full or partial lockdowns in 46 cities," adds the report. South China Morning Post reports that "China has ruled out any relaxation of cross-border policies, citing Covid surges at home and overseas as it battles the worst outbreaks since the start of the pandemic… Most flights were cancelled as the Baiyun airport was placed under 'effective control'." The founder and chair of one of Asia's biggest private equity investors — the Hong Kong-based Weijian Shan was quoted as saying by Financial Times that "Chinese economy at this moment is in the worst shape in the past 30 years…" The report says "it is unusual for prominent executives who do business in China to criticise the country or its government." China's "dynamic zero-Covid policy" has forced factories and businesses to close over the last two months, resulting in a jobs crisis, adds SCMP. |
| Elon Musk buys Twitter, promises neutrality, free speech as 'liberals' worldwide suffer epic meltdown |
| Our final news item this week doesn't strictly adhere to the 'foreign affairs' category, but the development is so momentous that not including it will be a travesty. Elon Musk has bought Twitter, and the globe is obsessing over its ramifications. Among a thousand aspects of the deal, two of the most prominent are the financing component, and the ideological ramifications. Musk's deal to buy Twitter Inc for $44 billion cash on Monday will shift control of the social media platform populated by millions of users and global leaders to the world's richest person. The decision caps weeks of drama. Musk's takeover bid resulted in Twitter adopting a 'poison pill' to fend off his advances but the Twitter board ultimately gave in when Musk approached with an offer of $43 billion in cash — what the CEO of Tesla called his "best and final" offer. The Tesla CEO said on Thursday in documents filed with US securities regulators that the money would come from Morgan Stanley and other banks, some of it secured by his huge stake in Tesla Inc. He is chief executive officer of electric vehicle maker Tesla. Even as Musk moved to secure the deal, the bigger debate has been over Twitter's ideological future with the company perceived as a 'liberal' organization that moderates free speech with a distinct Leftist bias, resulting in longstanding criticism from conservatives. Musk, who calls himself a free speech absolutist, has criticized Twitter's moderation. He wants Twitter's algorithm for prioritizing tweets to be public and objects to giving too much power on the service to corporations that advertise. New York Times observes that Musk's ownership has resulted in conservatives celebrating, and progressives wringing their hands in dismay. Twitter employees are mostly Leftists, and Politico reports that Vijaya Gadde, Twitter's top lawyer and the person responsible for controversial decisions such as blocking the Hunter Biden story and banning Donald Trump, "cried" during an internal meeting "as she expressed concerns about how the company could change." Musk said Twitter must be "politically neutral" in a comment posted last night after a wave of account deletions by left-leaning users on the social media network. |
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| TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK |
| India's stance on Ukraine reflects its deliberate choice |
| Ashley Tellis writes in Carnegie that "India's struggle to find a pathway that avoids criticizing Russia despite its blatant aggression in Ukraine highlights a larger underlying reality: the unyielding importance accorded by New Delhi to protecting India's interests in its international decisionmaking." |
| Time for India and the EU to work together |
| Professor Amrita Narlikar and ORF president Samir Saran write that "if there are ever natural allies in politics, the European Union (EU) and India should exemplify this relationship…" They argue that "for both India and the EU, strong bilateral ties rooted in close cooperation on green transition, digital transformation, and maintenance of the geopolitical landscape could be a game-changer." |
| India's interests are aligning with Europe |
| C Raja Mohan writes in Indian Express that "Ukraine war has persuaded Delhi to recalibrate its great power relations and has compelled Europe to end its long geopolitical holiday. For the first time since independence, India's interests are now aligning with those of Europe." |
| US must show reliability to India, not impose sanctions |
| Jeff Smith, research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, writes on the recently held India-US 2+2 dialogue that "rather than sanctioning India for its legacy reliance on Russian military hardware, it is better for the US to show that it is a more reliable and superior alternative as India continues the important but sluggardly process of weaning itself off Russian arms." |
| Elites don't get the power of nationalism |
| Professor Stephen M Walt writes in Foreign Policy that "elites may… discount the power of nationalism if they spend their lives in a transnational, cosmopolitan bubble…. Liberalism's emphasis on the individual and his/her/their individual rights is another blind spot, insofar as it directs our gaze away from the social bonds and commitments to group survival that many groups view as more important than individual freedom." |
| Robust maritime and defence ties with Britain is vital for India |
| On British prime minister Boris Johnson's recent trip to India, Jagannath Panda of the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden, writes that "the UK has historical links to the Indo-Pacific region and considerable maritime capabilities. For New Delhi, a robust maritime and defence partnership with Britain, bolstered through strong economic links and greater connections in critical sectors like cybersecurity, outer space, and emerging technologies, is vital." |
| Emmanuel Macron's real test begins now |
| Mohan Kumar, is former Indian ambassador to France, writes in Hindustan Times that "the voting pattern in France in these two rounds of the presidential election reveals a fractured polity and a divided nation. It falls on Macron to do everything in his power to unite the country behind his political, economic, and social agenda." |
| Quad needs a clear strategic vision to make an impact |
| Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney writes in Project Syndicate on the upcoming Quad leaders' summit in Japan that "the Quad can hold as many leaders' summits as it wants, but without a clear strategic vision – and an agenda to match – it will have little impact. The group's purpose is to act as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism and ensure a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. At its May 24 summit, all other issues should take a backseat to this objective." |
| Xi runs the risk of repeating Mao's mistakes |
| Eyck Freymann writes in Wall Street Journal that "Xi Jinping's bold embrace of the zero-Covid policy, in the face of an increasingly transmissible Omicron variant, is evoking Mao's legacy and running the risk of repeating Mao's mistakes." |
| Musk haters have revealed their true natures |
| Brendan O'Neill writes in The Spectator that "Musk-haters have revealed their true selves. They have exposed their authoritarian, jealous desire to elevate their beliefs above the realm of freedom and contestation. They are a far greater menace to modern society than Elon Musk could ever be." |
| PODCAST WATCH |
| Indian army chief on evolution of warfare |
| We recommend this episode of 'RaisinaFireside conversation' where host Harsh Pant of ORF chats with Chief of the Army Staff General Manoj M Naravane on issues such as the nature and character of warfare's evolution over the decade and the new paradigm of defence procurement in the form of "Atmanirbhar Bharat". |
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