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Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world

Welcome to Firstpost's global brief in the New Year that starts with grim developments in Kazakhstan, the oil rich Central Asian state known for its stability that has now erupted in anger, a part of it directed towards Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country's authoritarian former president (whose statue lies vandalized during protests in pic above). We also track extraordinary events in Australia where World No.1 tennis player Novak Djokovic, hoping to defend his Australian Open Grand Slam title, now lies in detention. Other updates include China's lockdown of Xi'an city that has resulted in rare public anger, India's testy public response to China's antics and anti-coup protests in Sudan.

TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES

Govt sacked, state of emergency declared as massive protests rock Kazakhstan, Russia sends troops

What started as a protest against rising fuel prices has ended up in massive civil unrest and mob violence in Kazakhstan with dozens of anti-government protestors killed and hundreds injured, a government sacked, official building torched to ashes and a state of emergency declared. "The demonstrations began over the weekend in Kazakhstan's oil-rich western region over high energy prices and then spread elsewhere, including Almaty, the country's largest city. Protesters on Wednesday set city halls across the country ablaze and briefly took over the Almaty airport. Part of their anger appeared to be aimed at Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country's authoritarian former president, who continues to exert significant power behind the scenes under the official title of 'father of the nation'," reports Washington Post. Fresh violence erupted in Kazakhstan's main city on Thursday after Russia rushed in paratroopers overnight to put down the countrywide uprising in one of Moscow's closest former Soviet allies. Police in Almaty said they had killed dozens of rioters overnight while at least 18 members of the security forces had died, including two who were decapitated. More than 2,000 people had been arrested. Washington Post has a timeline of the fast-paced events. New York Times reports of continued unrest, young men roaming the streets of Almaty, flanked by flames and buttressed by barricades, explosion of stun grenades and tear gas and demonstrators setting fire to trucks, police cars and other vehicles, their smoldering hulks littering the streets. On Wednesday, a statue of Nazarbayev in Taldykorgan, near Almaty, was pulled down and demolished by protesters. At rallies across the nation, people chanted: "Old man, go away!" Backed into a corner, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced in a televised address on Wednesday that he would now head the State Security Committee insteda of Nazarbayev, who has not been seen or heard from for days. Tokayev also requested assistance "in overcoming this terrorist threat" from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a military alliance of six post-Soviet states formed in 1994. As the peacekeeping forces landed in Kazakhstan, Tokayev in his address said he remains committed to consistent reforms and will soon present proposals for the political transformation of the country, reports Russia's TASS news agency. For many Russian observers, the sudden explosion of unrest in a country otherwise known for political stability, underlines a sense that intervention — which until only hours before Tokayev's plea for help had been sworn off by the Kremlin — was unavoidable, says Moscow Times. The unrest is also likely arouse serious concern in China that shares a 1,800 kilometer border with Kazakhstan. However, at a daily briefing Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin appeared to dismiss any possibility of China becoming involved in the current crisis, in line with Beijing strict official non-interventionist policy.

Australia cancels Novak Djokovic's visa, holds him in detention, sparks diplomatic row with Serbia

Is Novak Djokovic, world No.1 tennis player, a 20-time Grand Slam singles champion and one of the greatest ever to have played the sport, a victim or an anti-vaxxer who is facing consequences for his choice? That question remained central to an extraordinary set of events in the last 72 hours as the world remained witness to a macabre drama over the Serbian tennis player's entry into Australian Open to defend his title that he has won seven times. Let's reproduce Washington Post's reportage of the unfurling of events. "With a medical exemption to mandatory coronavirus vaccination in hand, Novak Djokovic landed at Melbourne's Tullamarine Airport shortly before midnight Wednesday, eager to launch preparations for the Australian Open and his pursuit of a record 21st major title. His reception, however, was not what the world's No. 1 player anticipated. He was escorted to a windowless immigration room as authorities reviewed potential irregularities with his visa and questions about the legitimacy of the medical exemption granted by state officials in Victoria that enabled him to enter the tournament. Border authorities then canceled his visa." According to the Post report, that quotes a "person close to the tournament with direct knowledge of the sequence of events", Djokovic "followed every step of the country's visa process properly" and his medical exemption was "granted with all identifying information redacted, ruling out the possibility of favoritism." But then Australian authorities "did an about-face" on Djokovic's status after the exemption granted to him "sparked outrage in Melbourne and throughout the country from citizens who have been subjected to exceedingly strict protocols for nearly two years." Djokovic's team has challenged the decision in an online hearing Thursday to stop Australia's federal government from deporting him before the Open begins, and his lawyers secured an interim injunction that prevents authorities deporting the tennis star until at least 4pm on Monday, when a more substantive hearing is scheduled, reports Sydney Morning Herald. The world No.1 tennis player is currently holed up in a government detention centre in Carlton along with refugees and asylum seekers that Djokovic's mother described as a "prison". "His accommodation [is] terrible. It's just some small, immigration hotel, if it is a hotel at all. With bugs, it's all dirty. The food is terrible," said his mom. The incident has sparked a diplomatic row with Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic summoning the Australian ambassador in protest over Djokovic's "detention" and Australian president Scott Morrison saying in a tweet, "Rules are rules, especially when it comes to our borders. No one is above these rules."

India slams China's Arunachal antics as ridiculous, terms PLA's bridge over Pangong Tso illegal

Sino-Indian ties began on an inauspicious note in the New Year. On Thursday, India lashed out at China, accusing Beijing of building a bridge across Pangong Lake in an area it has illegally occupied for 60 years and describing the letter sent by Chinese embassy to Indian lawmakers for attending a reception hosted by Tibetan government-in-exile as "unacceptable." "The external affairs ministry also reiterated its rejection of China's move to rename 15 locations in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, saying that instead of engaging in "such antics", Beijing should work with New Delhi to address the friction points in Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC)," reports Hindustan Times. In a virtual press conference held by the ministry of external affairs on Thursday, spokesperson Arindam Bagchi called renaming of locations in Arunachal a "ridiculous exercise to support untenable territorial claims." On the bridge being constructed across Pangong Tso, the MEA spokesperson said that these areas "have been under illegal occupation by China for around 60 years now. As you are well aware, India has never accepted such illegal occupation." He added that "instead of engaging in such antics, China will work constructively with us to resolve the outstanding friction points in areas along the Western Sector of the Line of Actual Control in India-China border areas." Notably, this public castigation of China's antics indicates a shift in India's stance. New Delhi had always preferred to keep these protests private.

China eases restrictions in Xi'an after 14 days of hard lockdown, food shortage and anger

Fourteen days after the severest of lockdowns to curb the biggest Covid outbreak since Wuhan, China on Wednesday reported a major drop in infections in the northern city of Xi'an, where 13 million residents have been confined to their homes for the past two weeks. Apart from a small number of essential workers, residents were allowed to leave for very limited grocery runs. So severe was the restriction in line with China's 'zero Covid' rule that people were reduced to bartering personal items and tech gadgets for food. BBC reported of "videos and photos on social media site Weibo showed people exchanging cigarettes for cabbage, dishwashing liquid for apples, and sanitary pads for a small pile of vegetables." Chinese Communist Party authorities suspended one of the top officials in Xi'an in charge of big data after the system powering the local health code app, a critical tool in China's zero-Covid strategy, crashed for a second time. Wall Street Journal reports that on Wednesday social media in China erupted in outrage in response to a video "showing a woman sitting outside a hospital, with a pool of blood at her feet." She was apparently "kept waiting outside the hospital for two hours because her most recent Covid-19 test was a couple of hours too old and by the time she was admitted, her unborn baby had died." The incident, according to the report, "prompted a quick response from Xi'an authorities, which said hospitals shouldn't turn away patients needing urgent attention, including pregnant women, in the name of Covid-19 prevention."

Sudan thrown into turmoil as prime minister Hamdok resigns, three killed in anti-coup protests

Unrest is also brewing in Sudan where Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced his resignation on Sunday amid political deadlock and widespread pro-democracy protests following a military coup that derailed the country's fragile transition to democratic rule. According to a report by Associated Press, Hamdok, a former UN official, had been reinstated as prime minister in November as part of an agreement with the military following the October coup. He had failed to name a Cabinet and his resignation throws Sudan into political uncertainty amid uphill security and economic challenges. On Thursday, Sudanese security forces fired tear gas to stop thousands of protesters demanding a transition to civilian rule. Singing, beating drums, and holding up posters of some the dozens killed in demonstrations since the October 25 coup, protesters in the capital Khartoum shouted slogans against the army in defiance, reports AFP. Reuters reports that three protestors were shot dead by security forces as crowds thronged the capital Khartoum and other cities in more anti-military rallies. At least 60 people have died and many more have been wounded in crackdowns on demonstrations since a coup in October that interrupted efforts to bring about democratic change. Al Jazeera says that prime minister was fed up with the decision of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan — the top military commander and leader of the coup — to restore the widely feared intelligence service, as well with his refusal to allow the prime minister to freely appoint members of his cabinet.

TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK

Talks of US-India global strategic partnership are unrealistic

On US-India ties, former foreign secretary of India Kanwal Sibal argues in Firstpost that an across-the-board strategic partnership with the US is an unrealistic proposition if India supports multipolarity, wants a reform of the international system hitherto dominated by the West, has developing country perspectives in negotiations on various issues confronting the international community and wants international inequities to be reduced.

China needs more clarity in its foreign policy articulation

Winston Fung, research fellow at the Hong Kong Policy Research Institute, writes in South China Morning Post that China's foreign policy is perceived by an increasing number of external actors as muddled and incoherent. The danger here is that if China cannot articulate a convincing and credible set of foreign policy goals that can be accepted by other state actors, then those actors will define one for China which might not be to Beijing's liking.

India must deepen ties with Maldives, Sri Lanka and Comoros

On China's challenge to India's primacy in South Asian waters, C Raja Mohan, professor at the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, writes in Foreign Policy that India needs to deepen its own cooperation with the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Comoros. The best way to do that would be for India to give them greater access to its large domestic market, promote cross-border investments, resolve longstanding political disputes, reduce its interventions in these nations' internal affairs, and insulate bilateral ties from domestic power struggles.

ASEAN centrality will soon become a mere diplomatic politesse

Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore's ministry of foreign affairs, writes in Nikkei Asia that unless ASEAN members define clear parameters for what they are and, equally important, are not prepared to do with the U.S. and China, ASEAN centrality will soon become mere diplomatic politesse.

2022 will see the rise of Xi Jinping and fall of Joe Biden

Shigesaburo Okumura, chief editor of Nikkei Asia, predicts that 2022 will prove decisive and be remembered as the year of Chinese President Xi Jinping's rise and US President Joe Biden's fall. As a result, the escalating competition between the two superpowers will be much harder and stronger, and we will see accelerated geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait.

Structural problems will continue to plague India-Russia ties

Nandan Unnikrishnan, distinguished fellow at Observer Research Foundation writes in Moneycontrol that Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India has bridged some recent policy gaps between Moscow and New Delhi, but structural problems will continue to bedevil the relationship demanding a very calibrated approach to bilateral ties from both countries.

Russia, China's strategic closeness is not without weak points

Hiroyuki Akita argues in Nikkei Asia that Russia and China use each other to counter the US. But Russia doesn't want to be drawn into a conflict on the Taiwan Strait, and China has no wish to be involved in Ukraine. A US-China clash over Taiwan would escalate into an all-out war, possibly drawing Russia into it in one way or another. Putin secretly fears such a scenario.

Next two years will be crucial for Imran Khan

G Parthasarathy, chancellor at Jammu central university and a former high commissioner to Pakistan, writes in The Tribune that the next two years are going to be crucial for Imran Khan, as he prepares for the 2023 general election. Even prior to that, a decision has to be taken on who is to be Pakistan's next army chief. It is no secret that there is no love lost between Imran Khan and the present army chief.

US lost the Afghanistan war but private contractors won big

Dion Nissenbaum, Jessica Donati and Alan Cullison of Wall Street Journal point out that while the US lost its 20-year campaign to transform Afghanistan, many contractors won big. Those who benefited from the outpouring of government money range from major weapons manufacturers to entrepreneurs… Four months after the last American troops left Afghanistan, the US is assessing the lessons to be learned. Among those, some officials and watchdog groups say, is the reliance on battlefield contractors and how that adds to the costs of waging war.

Djokovic's visa denial in Australia has to do with politics, not public health

Osman Faruqi argues in Sydney Morning Herald that Novak Djokovic's misery is pretty much self-inflicted and he isn't a victim. But the decision to allow him to travel to Australia, then to detain him, interrogate him and deport him, actually has very little to do with Djokovic. Rather, it's about a federal government desperate to do two things: change the national conversation, and attempt to project some authority and control after it lost both.

PODCAST WATCH

Why did Kazakhstan erupt?

If you want to learn more about the turn of events in Kazakhstan, 'Global Dispatches' podcast, hosted by Mark Leon Goldberg, discusses the massive protests have swept across the large Central Asian country. Guests Erica Marat, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, Diana T. Kudaibergenova of Cambridge University and Jen Brick Murta-zashvili of University of Pittsburgh explain that though the fuel price hike was the proximate cause of the protests, they are rooted in deep and widespread disaffection with Kazakhstan's ruling class.