Cinema News: Welcome to Firstpost's Weekly Foreign Policy Fix

Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world

Welcome to Firstpost's global brief. No signs of abatement in India-China tension. If anything, with China's adoption of a new border law, the positions have become harder. China, meanwhile, is taking a lot of interest in central Asia and increasing footprint in Tajikistan. Elsewhere, Pakistan is in the grip of violent rioting by a radical Islamist group, Glasgow is getting ready to host COP26 summit where 197 countries will discuss ways to avert climate tipping points (picture above) and prime minister Modi has departed for Italy and the UK to take part in G20 and COP26 summits.

TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES

India reacts sharply to China's new border law; Army takes stock of increased PLA activity in Arunachal

Last Saturday, China unveiled a new 'border law' for the "protection and exploitation of the country's land border areas" which will come into effect from January 1. The issue has become immediately controversial. The law comes amid a 17-month border standoff with India and among other things, contains provisions that allows China to legalise its illegal land-grabs and has the potential to further mess up the border negotiations that have already hit a deadlock. The law states that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of…China are sacred and inviolable" and asks the state to "take measures to safeguard territorial integrity and land boundaries and guard against and combat any act that undermines [these]", reports Indian media outlets, citing Xinhua as the source. According to The Hindu, Article 22 of the law says the PLA "shall carry out border duties" including "organising drills" and "resolutely prevent, stop and combat invasion, encroachment, provocation and other acts". The newspaper also observes that the law may formalise "some of China's recent actions in disputed territories with both India and Bhutan, including the PLA's massing of troops in forward areas along the India border, multiple transgressions across the LAC, and the construction of new 'frontier villages' along the border with Bhutan." India has reacted with alacrity, expressing its concern and asking China to refrain from acting under the new law and creating any mischief. MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi in a statement said: "We expect that China will avoid undertaking action under the pretext of this law which could unilaterally alter the situation in the India-China border areas." He pointed out that "such unilateral move will have no bearing on the arrangements that both sides have already reached earlier, whether it is on the Boundary Question or for maintaining peace and tranquillity along the LAC in India-China Border areas." India's response points to suspicion over China's intent and complete breakdown of dialogue mechanism and trust. Meanwhile, tension along the LAC continues to mount, and the focus is on India's northeast near the Tawang plateau in Arunachal Pradesh. The Indian Army has prepared an 'activity matrix' to monitor the latest developments in the eastern sector, zooming in on three specific sectors — Lungro La, Zimithang and Bum La — where PLA's activities have shown marked increase, prompting India to take countermeasures, reports Hindustan Times. India is not sitting idle. To counter China's increased patrolling and area domination activities, India has deployed recently acquired US-made weaponry such as Chinook helicopters, ultra-light towed howitzers and rifles, reports Bloomberg. India's Mountain Strike Corps, the Panagarh-based 17 MSC, is now in Arunachal Pradesh to fine tune its Integrated Battle Group (IBG) strategy for the winter, reports The Print. In another signal to China, India has successfully test-fired Agni-5, a nuclear-capable Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range of 5,000 km, bringing whole of China within target range.

China to build police outpost for Tajikistan, looks to increase military footprint in central Asia

We turn our attention to Tajikistan, one of Afghanistan's neighbours who still refuses to recognise the Taliban regime, calling for a broader representation of minorities. Tajikistan's Parliament announced on Thursday that central Asian nation will allow China to finance the construction of a police force outpost near the Tajik-Afghan border, that also runs adjacent to China's Xinjiang province. China, however, has denied reports that it is constructing a police base. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters: "I am not aware of the situation you mentioned." Alongside, according to a report in RFE/RL, the Tajik government has also offered to "transfer full control of a preexisting Chinese military base in the central Asian nation to Beijing and waive any future rent in exchange for military aid from China." The report adds, "the two developments paint a picture of a growing Chinese military footprint in the central Asian country as Beijing and its neighbors in the region turn their attention toward an increasingly tenuous security situation in Afghanistan." China already runs a military base in the Murghab region of Tajikistan near the Afghan border, and the development indicates Beijing's willingness to increase its attention in central Asia. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera reports of a meeting in Tehran on Wednesday of foreign ministers of Afghanistan's neighbouring states Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan — joined by their counterparts from China and Russia via video. The countries stressed on the necessity of "continued cooperation by the neighbouring states to avoid a collapse or civil war in Afghanistan." During that meeting, Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov urged Afghanistan's neighbours to refuse hosting of US or NATO forces.

Four cops killed, hundreds injured as radical Islamist group TLP holds Pakistan to ransom

Pakistan is in the grip of violent rioting at home by an outlawed, yet popular hardline Islamist group named Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). Since last Friday, thousands of TLP activists have been blocking Pakistan's busiest roads. They have been conducting anti-France protests and demanding expulsion of the French ambassador over the publication of a series of caricatures depicting the Prophet Mohammad by a French satirical magazine. They also want the state to release their jailed leader, Saad Rizvi. According to Reuters, the demonstrators started their latest campaign on Friday and camped near the town of Muridke on the Grand Trunk Road leading to Islamabad, choking off all traffic. On Tuesday night, TLP announced it would start its march toward the capital unless the government honored its commitment. The day after, huge clash broke out at a rally on a highway in Sheikhupura, just outside Lahore, as the group prepared to march on the capital, resulting in the death of four Pakistani policemen. According to the police, TLP activists armed with automatic weapons opened fire on security forces controlling the demonstrators. A report in Pakistan newspaper Dawn states that 253 others had been injured in the firing by TLP members who wielded SMG, AK 47 and pistols to target police officers. Pakistan, which had earlier tried to appease the Islamist group and was ready to accede to some of their demands, appeared to have hardened its stance. National Security Adviser (NSA) Moeed Yusuf said that the banned "TLP has crossed the red line and exhausted the state's patience," and the "law will take its course for each one of them and terrorists will be treated like terrorists with no leniency." But according to another report in Dawn, TLP activists were undeterred as some 4000 of them entered Gujranwala city on Thursday afternoon (around 220 km from Islamabad) in large trucks and buses along with their supplies, as stick-wielding activists of the group guarded the procession from all sides. Pakistan's beleaguered interior minister Sheikh Rashid on Thursday called on TLP members to stick to the promises it had made with the government, warning that "things will be out of my hands" if the group fails to do so.

India rejects net zero emission target ahead of COP26, stresses on climate justice and pathway

As the United Nations' global climate summit COP26 gets under way on October 31, all eyes will be in Glasgow, Scotland, where 197 nations are gathering will make emission reduction commitments. News18 informs us that "COP stands for Conference of Parties and it will be the 26th meeting of all the countries that are signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which came into force in 1994. The first of the annual COP meets was held in Berlin in 1995 and, after a gap year in 2020 due to the pandemic, COP26 is now set to commence on October 31 in Glasgow in UK's Scotland. COP26 is being hosted by the UK in partnership with Italy." Prime minister Narendra Modi will be attending the summit though it has been hobbled already by the likely absence of Russian president Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the president of China — by far the biggest greenhouse gas emitter in the world. In another report, News18 says India could raise the concept of 'climate justice' at COP26 and launch its own 'Climate Tracker'. The report quotes a source, as saying that developed countries need to start from 'net negative' instead of 'net zero', and India may stress at the meeting that it has fulfilled its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). India is the third biggest emitter after China and the US, but, as Hindustan Times points out, "India today ranks among the few countries on track to meet most of the climate commitments it made under the Paris Agreement" and New Delhi has an ambitious target of renewable capacity of 450 GW by 2030. That would mean that India would generate 60% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, well beyond the 40% target in its Paris pledge, according to the report. In this context, India on Wednesday rejected calls to announce a net zero carbon emissions target and said it was more important for the world to lay out a pathway to reduce such emissions and avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures, reports Reuters.

PM Modi leaves for Italy, UK to take part in G20 Summit and COP26 in Glasgow

This will be a busy week for Indian diplomacy as prime minister Narendra Modi departed for Italy and the UK where he will attend the G20 summit and the COP26 climate meet, respectively. He will also call upon Pope Francis in the Vatican. In a statement ahead of leaving for Rome and Glasgow, the prime minister said: "I will be visiting Rome, Italy and the Vatican City, from 29-31 October, 2021 at the invitation of H.E. Prime Minister Mario Draghi, following which I will travel to Glasgow, United Kingdom from 1-2 November 2021 at the invitation of H.E. Prime Minister Boris Johnson." He added that that this will be the "first in-person Summit of the G20 since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 and will allow us to take stock of the current global situation and exchange ideas on how the G20 can be an engine for strengthening economic resilience and building back inclusively and sustainably from the pandemic." Modi is slated to meet other heads of state on the sidelines of G20. At COP26, the prime minister will highlight the "need to comprehensively address climate change issues including equitable distribution of carbon space, support for mitigation and adaptation and resilience building measures, mobilization of finance, technology transfer and importance of sustainable lifestyles for green and inclusive growth." Chinese president Xi Jinping is slated to give the G20 summit a miss, and he is likely to be absent from the COP26 as well. According to US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, US president Joe Biden heads to a meeting of G20 leaders to discuss energy prices, the Iranian nuclear program and supply chain issues. Her will also seek to cement progress on a global minimum tax during his trip.

TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK

India must aim at deterring China from a short, sharp war

In Firstpost, in light of the intensifying tension along the India-China border, we argue that If India is able to convince China that a short, sharp war will likely be a misadventure instead of helping China achieve its objectives, the current spiral in ties may be arrested.

China's new land border law is a feint to distract from Beijing's true intentions

Former ambassador to China Gautam Bambawale writes in Economic Times that "the passing of the new land border law by China is a feint, aimed at distracting India from China's true intentions. Laughably, the law states that China's territorial integrity is inviolable. This does not stop Beijing from violating the territory of other nations. Beijing has indicated that she will try to settle the boundary through force. India should prepare for more Chinese military actions and aggression on the border."

US should formalise an alliance with India, argue Nikkey Haley and Mike Waltz

America's former envoy to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Mike Waltz, Republican lawmaker and vice chair of the India Caucus, in Foreign Policy magazine call for the United States to formalise an alliance with India. They argue that "as a nuclear power with more than 1 million troops, a growing navy, a top-tier space program, and a proven history of economic and military cooperation with the United States, India would make a strong ally. An alliance with India would allow both countries to maintain and expand their global strength. And together with Japan and Australia, it would enable the United States to form a real deterrent to potential terrorist threats in Afghanistan as well as counter China."

India is not a perpetual geopolitical fence-sitter

On India's foreign policy choices and alignments, Brookings Institution scholar Tanvi Madan writes in War on the Rocks that "India's Quad choice also reflects — and has been made possible by — a recalibration of Indian views about the United States and its utility regarding China. This recalibration toward a more positive view of the United States did not happen overnight — it has been occurring over two decades — but American support during the crisis with China in 2020–2021 has further fueled the shift." She argues against the idea that India avoids choices and will always walk a middle path in US-China competition.

China's recent nuclear activities are aimed at deterring the US

In the backdrop of China's testing of a hypersonic glide vehicle that has caused quite a global stir, Kunal Singh, who is doing a PhD in political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tackles the question in Hindustan Times why China is engaging in a flurry of nuclear activity. He argues that "the most likely explanation is that the possibility of a US-China conflict is much higher now, or at least the leadership in Beijing thinks so. If there is a conventional conflict between the US and China, over, let's say, Taiwan, it can always escalate to nuclear levels. If the US believes that it possesses significant nuclear superiority, it might be tempted to undertake a massive counterforce strike. The latest Chinese investments are meant to deter such temptations."

China-Russia partnership is hobbled by doubts in Beijing over Putin regime's stability

Pavel K. Baev, senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, writes in The Jamestown Foundation's China Brief issue that "China's consistent choice against engaging in any meaningful cooperation with Russia in areas perceived as crucial for its national security is determined not only by the desire to avoid any dependency, but also by doubts over Putin regime's stability, which are informed by lessons learned from the USSR's collapse. The Kremlin may have no such doubts regarding Xi Jinping's grasp on power, but is anxious about the contrast in global perceptions between China's rise and Russia's stagnation."

Time to reimagine the Asian order through an Indo-Abrahamic alliance

Mohammed Soliman, non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, argues in Hindustan Times in favour of an "Indo-Abrahamic alliance… between India, Israel, and the UAE" that may capitalise on "India's centrality in the Indo-Pacific strategy and Washington's traditional convener role in the Middle East to build closer ties with both countries." He argues that this new "Indo-Abrahamic bloc can also bridge the gap between Washington's desire to reduce its focus on West Asia while managing the ambitions of regional governments to build their own technological and military capabilities."

Pakistan has managed to turn Afghanistan into a puppet

Javid Ahmad, former Afghanistan ambassador to the UAE, writes in Wall Street Journal of Pakistan's duplicity and double game that enabled Islamabad to win in Afghanistan. He argues that "Pakistan has managed to turn Afghanistan into a puppet. Going forward, Islamabad expects to play the dominant role in managing the Taliban government. But Washington can't afford to be distracted or politically absent."

Imran Khan govt's surrender to TLP will have serious consequences for Pakistan

Pakistani columnist and author Zahid Hussain writes in Dawn newspaper that "it has not happened for the first time that the (Pakistan) state has surrendered to a group (Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan) it had declared terrorist. But the way the government capitulated yet again to the banned TLP is despicable." He adds that "The PTI government's policy of appeasement has increased the terrorist threat to the country. Surrendering to terrorist groups will have very serious consequences for the country's security and stability."

Pakistan's civil-military cracks are now out in the open

Sushant Sareen, Pakistan watcher and senior fellow at Observer Research Foundation, writes that "the cracks between the civilian government and its military benefactors are now out in the open. None of the protagonists—Imran Khan, Gen Qamar Bajwa or Faiz Hamid—are going to come out of this looking good. If anything, it will mostly likely put paid to the ambitions of all three—Imran wanting a second term, Bajwa another extension of two years, and Hamid succeeding Bajwa next year."

PODCAST WATCH

Analysing the implications of Moscow format

We recommend Stratnews Global's 'Talking Point' podcast where ambassador P.S. Raghavan, former head, National Security Advisory Board and India's ex-envoy to Russia and ambassador Amar Sinha, former member, National Security Advisory Board and ex-envoy to Afghanistan and Tajikistan, analyse with host Amitabh P Revi the implications of 'Moscow Format' talks between 10 countries (including India) and the Taliban government.