| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Our edition this week kicks off with Modi's Nepal visit that sought to cement bilateral ties within the context of culture and faith, and we also track developments in Ladakh, Modi's upcoming Quad leaders' summit, Sri Lanka's ever-deepening crisis, Erdogan's tantrums over Finland and Sweden's bid to join NATO and Jaishankar's message to China and Russia at the BRICS forum. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Focus on soft power and cultural connect as Modi visits Nepal on Buddha Purnima | | Prime minister Narendra Modi's visit to Nepal this week, a month after Nepalese PM Sher Bahadur Deuba's arrival in April, was an attempt to reestablish Nepal's primacy in India's foreign policy calculus through cultural connect and India's soft power — an attempt perhaps by New Delhi to tell China that money can't buy everything. The prime minister landed in Nepal at the invitation of his Nepalese counterpart on May 16, the day of Buddha Purnima, and paid an official visit to Lumbini, considered the birthplace of Prince Siddhartha who later attained enlightenment to become the Buddha. The date was chosen carefully. Modi proceeded to visit the Mayadevi temple, the site of Buddha's birth and both prime minister "attended prayers conducted as per Buddhist rituals and made offerings. The Prime Ministers lit lamps and visited the historical Ashoka Pillar, that carries the first epigraphic evidence of Lumbini being the birthplace of Lord Buddha. They also watered the holy Bodhi tree that was brought as a gift by Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Nepal in 2014," states an MEA readout. As Indian Express points out in an editorial, "if the Modi government's early reliance on a Hindu connect to win influence in Nepal did not have the desired effect, the carefully chosen date and destination of Modi's fifth visit to Nepal since becoming Prime Minister was a push to make up for lost time and opportunity with another shared religion. Lumbini is also where China's presence looms close to the Indian border, from a Beijing financed airport to a Chinese monastery. The announcement of a joint India-Nepal plan to give Lumbini its rightful place in the Buddhist circuit promoted by Indian tour operators, the Prime Minister's reiteration that this was the birthplace of the Buddha, and the laying of the foundation stone for an Indian monastery are belated attempts to deploy Indian soft power to reclaim some space in India's Himalayan neighbour." Modi said bilateral ties are "unshakeable" and in his fifth visit to Nepal in seven years, announced a slew of measures centred on energy, reports Times of India. Yubaraj Ghimire writes in Indian Express that "Modi, by befriending Deuba, has made an effective attempt to repair the damage in bilateral ties that took place between 2016 and 2021 when he and his then Nepali counterpart K P Oli fell out…. His visit to Lumbini and the laying of the monastery's foundation may give India a foothold and cultural space. But that provides zero guarantee that it will be able to outdo its competitors, including the West and China, who are already deeply entrenched in Nepal." | | Modi to attend Quad summit in Tokyo amid reports of China building a bigger bridge over Pangong Tso | | The Print reported this week, quoting sources, that "China is building a second bridge over territory held by it in Pangong Tso, which is capable of carrying armoured columns". The report quoted a source as saying, "the first bridge (started at the end of 2021 and finished last month) is being used by the Chinese to station their cranes and bring over other construction equipment. The new bridge, right next to it, is bigger and wider than the one they finished construction of in April this year." The bridge, said the report, "was aimed at cutting down a 180-km loop from Khurnak to the southern banks through Rudok, sources had said. This would mean that the route from Khurnak to Rudok would come down to 40-50 km." Reacting to the development, MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said on Thursday that "we have seen media reports on a new bridge or expansion of old ones. This is a military issue so I can't discuss implications. But India has always believed this area is occupied territory. We continue to monitor such developments." The Hindu in a report quoted another source, as saying "that satellite imagery showed construction material were dumped last month and the work on the main bridge had just commenced. Stating that it doesn't make sense to have two bridges at the same location, the source noted that the main bridge was much higher and broader that would allow the PLA to move troops as well as armoured vehicles." Amid reports of China building another bridge over Pangong Tso in Ladakh, it was announced that prime minister Modi will visit Tokyo to attend the third Quad Leaders' Summit in Tokyo on 24 May at the invitation of Japanese PM Fumio Kishida. The Tokyo summit, according to a MEA release, "is the fourth interaction of Quad Leaders since their first virtual meeting in March 2021, in-person Summit in Washington DC in September 2021 and virtual meeting in March 2022." The release stated that Modi will hold separate bilaterals with Kishida, US president Joe Biden and Australian PM Scott Morrison. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, told reporters in Washington during the daily White House news conference that "we believe that this summit will demonstrate both in substance and in vision that democracies can deliver and that these four nations working together will defend and uphold the principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific". | | Finland, Sweden formally apply to join NATO but Turkish president Erdogan refuses to give approval | | Nordic nations Sweden and Finland have decided to shelve their 'neutrality' and join NATO and the 30-member alliance can't wait to have them as members, but Turkish president is threatening to spoil their party. On Wednesday, reports Reuters, Finland and Sweden, who had remained neutral throughout the Cold War, formally applied to join the NATO alliance that also reflects a shift in public opinion in the Nordic region since Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine. "This is a historic moment which we must seize," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a short ceremony at NATO headquarters in which the Swedish and Finnish ambassadors to the alliance handed over their application letters, each in a white folder embossed with their national flag. The process usually takes about eight months to a year, and must be unanimously ratified by all 30 member countries, but in the case of Sweden and Finland, NATO's closest partners, the process may become significantly quicker. However, Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan has other ideas. Daily Sabah reported on Monday that Erdoฤan has "reiterated Turkey's objections and said the country will not approve Sweden and Finland's bid to join NATO, as he criticized them for failing to take a clear stance against terrorist organizations. Turkey had said last week said it would not view their applications positively, mainly citing their history of support to terrorist organizations, including the PKK and its Syrian wing, the YPG. Erdoฤan described Sweden as an "incubation center for terrorist organizations," saying some members of its parliament supported the PKK, designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union." Erdoฤan also said on Monday that Swedish and Finnish delegations should not bother coming to Ankara to convince it to approve their NATO bid. On Wednesday, reports Financial Times, Erdoฤan "provided more specifics about his demands, attacking the Nordic countries for refusing to extradite 30 people accused of terrorism charges in Turkey. At the same time, the Turkish Nato ambassador forced the alliance to postpone its initial decision to proceed with the two countries' applications. "You won't hand over terrorists but you want to join Nato," Erdoฤan declared in a speech to parliament. "We cannot say yes to a security organisation that is devoid of security." Bloomberg has an explainer on why Turkey is threatening to stop NATO's Nordic expansion. | | Sri Lanka defaults on debt for first time in its history as PM Ranil warns of "most difficult days ahead" | | Sri Lanka is running out of fuel, life-saving medicines, forex and patience and on Wednesday, the country's central bank confirmed that Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debt for the first time in its history as a result of its worst financial crisis in more than 70 years. "It comes after a 30-day grace period to repay $78m (£63m) of unpaid debt interest payments expired on Wednesday. The governor of Sri Lanka's central bank said the country was now in a 'pre-emptive default'. Defaults happen when governments are unable to meet some or all of their debt payments to creditors," observes BBC. Financial Times points out that "President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's government said last month that Sri Lanka would stop repaying its international debt to conserve foreign currency reserves for imports such as fuel, medicine and food. Sri Lanka, which has never defaulted before, owes about $51bn in overseas debt to international bondholders as well as bilateral creditors including China, Japan and India." Earlier in the week on Monday, Sri Lanka's new prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took charge after Mahinda Rajapaksa was forced to resign under public pressure, in his first address to the nation warned citizens that the coming months would be the "most difficult ones" of their lives, with likely 15-hour power cuts, and a further price increase in fuel and gas, just as he outlined plans to arrest the island's rapid economic decline. "To ease the queues, we must obtain approximately $75 million within the next couple of days. At the moment, we only have petrol stocks for a single day," he said in a televised address, his first after assuming charge as Prime Minister on May 12, reports The Hindu. On Wednesday, Sri Lanka asked citizens not to queue for gasoline as the nation on the verge of default has no dollars to pay for a fuel shipment. Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera told Sri Lankan parliament that "there is a petrol ship in our waters… We do not have the forex." In his televised address, the full text of which is available here, Wickremesinghe said, "In November 2019, our foreign exchange reserves were at $7.5 billion. However, today, it is a challenge for the treasury to find $1 million. The Ministry of finance is finding it difficult to raise $5 million required to import gas." He also proposed to "privatise Sri Lankan Airlines which is incurring extensive losses" and said he is "compelled to permit printing money in order to pay state-sector employees and to pay for essential goods and services", adding that "we must remember that printing money leads to the depreciation of the rupee." | | BRICS must live up to commitments on territorial integrity, says Jaishankar in FMs' meet | | External affairs minister S Jaishankar took part in the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting through video conferencing on Thursday, and with the Russian and Chinese foreign ministers in attendance (Wang Yi was the chair under rotating presidency), Jaishankar said "BRICS has repeatedly affirmed respect for sovereign equality, territorial integrity and international law. We must live up to these commitments. BRICS should unanimously and specifically support UN Security Council reform." The meeting, hosted by China, was attended by Wang Yi, Brazilian foreign minister Carlos Alberto Franco Franรงa, Russia's Sergey Lavrov and South Africa's Grace Naledi. The meeting was hosted by China. Jaishankar further said "we must not only seek socio-economic recovery from the Covid pandemic, but also create resilient and reliable supply chains. Knock-on effects of the Ukraine conflict have led to sharp increases in the costs of energy, food and commodities. This must be mitigated for the sake of the developing world." The Hindu observes that "India has been faced with a steep increase in the prices of wheat, cotton, cooking gas, metals and other items. The increase in the commodities prices has been compared to the commodities shock that was witnessed last time in the 1970s. Arguing in favour of the rights of the developing economies in a turbulent world, Jaishankar said, 'The COVID pandemic followed by the Ukraine conflict is causing enormous socio-economic hardships in the developing world. We need resilient and reliable supply chains, economic decentralisation'." In another report, The Hindu pointed out that "Russia is hoping that its cooperation with BRICS countries can help reduce some of the pressures it is facing under Western sanctions, which none of the BRICS countries have supported. Speaking at the BRICS finance ministers' meeting last month, Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov called for the use of national currencies for BRICS countries, integration of payment systems, their own financial messaging system, and the creation of a BRICS rating agency." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Modi's Lumbini visit a chance to build on bilateral ties | | Amish Raj Mulmi writes in Hindustan Times on Modi's Nepal visit that "Delhi has rightly focused on furthering economic connectivity with Kathmandu in this period of thaw, especially with federal and provincial elections slated later this year in Nepal. Local election trends suggest a political churn may be underway in the country, and India would do well not to be distracted and build on the current bilateral framework while working towards a resolution of outstanding issues." | | US shouldn't escalate proxy war against Russia | | University of Cincinnati professor Brendan Rittenhouse Green and Georgetown University professor Caitlin Talmadge argue in Washington Post that the United States "should not let Putin's mistake of invading Ukraine prod us toward making our own error: spending valuable resources and attention on an escalating proxy war against an adversary that has already inflicted large wounds on itself." | | Why China is paranoid about the Quad | | Asia Society Policy Institute fellow C Raja Mohan writes in Foreign Policy that two factors "help explain China's aggressive campaign against the Quad and, especially, nascent US-Indian ties… The most obvious is India's sheer size and potential power to shape China's strategic periphery" and second, "Beijing is playing to the gallery of entrenched anti-American sentiment in New Delhi." | | Quad must develop a more robust security agenda | | ORF America executive director Dhruva Jaishankar and Brookings Institution senior fellow Tanvi Madan write in Foreign Affairs ahead of Quad leaders' summit in Tokyo. They argue, "as the Quad looks to cooperate and coordinate in the face of mounting global crises, and as China increases its military presence and assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific, the Quad must develop a more robust security agenda if it seeks to sustain itself…" | | A sobered China is signaling a more cautious external posture | | Former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran weighs in on Xi Jinping's new Global Security Initiative (GSI). He writes in Business Standard that Xi's recent speeches indicate "China may have declared victory too early. There are signs of a more cautious external posture going forward." | | Biden's China policy increases fears of a conflict | | Edward Luce writes in Financial Times on US President's Asia visit that the "asymmetry of Biden's China policy increases the danger of what everyone fears — a conflict with China. A superpower that is happy to discuss military aid and weapons, but reluctant to talk of trade and investment, is telling both partners and foes that it speaks just one language." | | India, France ties are set to deepen further | | Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, CSST director at ORF, writes in The Diplomat that "given the long-standing and trusted partnership between India and France and the intensifying geopolitical trends in the Indo-Pacific region, New Delhi and Paris are likely to build an even closer partnership that will focus on building India's military wherewithal." | | Biden's Russia sanctions may cut both ways | | Fareed Zakaria writes in Washington Post that the "unprecedented nature" of America's tough economic sanctions on Russia "is producing concerns around the world that the US 'weaponized' its financial power and could lead, over time, to the decline of the dollar's dominance, which is what gives America its financial superpowers in the first place." | | Ukraine war and the return of liberal nationalism | | Sohrab Ahmari, editor of Compact magazine, writes on the new marriage of convenience between nationalism and liberalism post Ukraine war. he argues that "the jingoism and hawkism of the new nationalists in Warsaw, Stockholm, Washington, and elsewhere is sincere — that's why they're nationalists, after all. Nevertheless, it remains the case that the war is also objectively creating a convergence between their movement and the aims and interests of the transnational liberal institutions they claim to despise." | | Rajapaksas are down, not out in Sri Lanka | | In Indian Express, Nirupama Subramanian traces the arc of Sri Lanka's complex political history and finds that it could be hard to keep the Rajapaksas down for too long. | | PODCAST WATCH | | China's relationship with Middle East | | We recommend this episode of the ChinaPower podcast, where host Bonny Lin speaks to Jon B Alterman to unpack the relationship between China and the Middle East. Alterman states that China's growing presence in the region is mostly motivated by Chinese self-interest and China is not willing to commit large sacrifices to deepen its relations with the region or with particular countries like Iran. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
