| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | A week of utter chaos and unprecedented street violence (pic above) in Sri Lanka has resulted in the ouster of PM Mahinda Rajapaksa and swearing in of old hand Ranil Wickremesinghe. But will this placate the Lankan public who want president Gotabaya also to quit? As we look at this question, we also track developments on Covid summit, ASEAN summit, 'Bonbong' Marcos's win in Philippines and Finland's move to join NATO. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | As Sri Lanka burns, Prez Gotabaya appoints new PM after mob fury forces brother Mahinda to quit | | The simmering tension in Sri Lanka finally boiled over as the island nation plummeted into utter chaos this week, resulting in unprecedented political upheaval, violence and economic meltdown. The powerful Rajapaksa clan was all but wiped out of power with the president, Gotabaya, still clinging on to his chair. In a desperate move on Thursday, after his elder brother and prime minister Mahinda was forced to resign due to public pressure and mob fury, president Gotabaya turned to former PM Ranil Wickremesinghe and appointed him as the prime minister to tide over the crisis. "This is the sixth time Wickremesinghe has been appointed to the office — he has never finished a full term — and will have the task of arresting the devastating impact of the island's economic downturn, that too under president Gotabaya who is fiercely detested by disgruntled citizens demanding his resignation," says The Hindu. The swearing-in of the 73-year-old Wickremesinghe was not open to the media reportedly over fears of a public backlash. According to Nikkei Asia, "less than two hours before his swearing-in, two prominent religious leaders opposed Rajapaksa's move to appoint Wickremesinghe as the new PM. Buddhist priest Omalpe Sobitha Thero and the head of Sri Lanka's Catholic Church, Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, told a news conference that 'this appointment is not the solution the people want'." But it is unclear whether this band-aid solution will placate the irate Sri Lankan public who want to see the end of Rajapaksa dynasty who have been blamed for economic mismanagement leading to the economic implosion. Nine people were killed and more than 300 injured in mob violence this week, and property belonging to the Rajapaksas and their political allies were vandalised after protestors, who have been protesting peacefully for months, were beaten up on Monday by a pro-Rajapaksa crowd armed with sticks and iron rods at an anti-government protest site in Colombo, leaving almost 200 people injured. Sri Lankan troops had to conduct a dramatic pre-dawn operation to rescue Mahinda Rajapaksa firing warning shots in the air to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters who had stormed his official residence in Colombo, reports Guardian. After more than 100 buildings were set alight, including the homes of 41 pro-Rajapaksa politicians and a luxury hotel said to be owned by the Rajapaksas, as well as several buses that had been rumoured to be used as transport for pro-Rajapaksa supporters, Sri Lankan troops and armoured vehicles were deployed across the city of Colombo on Tuesday and security officials were given orders to shoot on sight anyone deemed to be participating in violence, notes Guardian in another report. While Mahinda was taken to a naval base, a court on Thursday banned former him, his politician son Namal and 15 allies from leaving the country. Meanwhile, "in its first reaction to days of violence that led to the resignation of PM Mahinda, the government on Tuesday said that India will be guided by the 'best interests' of the Sri Lankan people, in a statement that made no mention of the Rajapaksa government itself," reports The Hindu. In a statement, the MEA said "as a close neighbour of Sri Lanka, with historical ties, India is fully supportive of its democracy, stability and economic recovery." | | PM Modi calls for flexibility in TRIPS and WHO reforms at global Covid summit | | Upstaged by the Ukraine war, the second edition of the global Covid Summit was convened on Thursday, co-hosted by the United States, Belize, Germany, Indonesia and Senegal. With so much happening around the world it is easy to forget that Covid still poses a grave threat, and US president Joe Biden appealed to world leaders at the summit to reenergize a lagging international commitment to attacking the virus as he led the US in marking the "tragic milestone" of 1 million deaths in America. He ordered flags lowered to half-staff and warned against complacency around the globe. "This pandemic isn't over," Biden declared at the second global pandemic summit. He spoke solemnly of the once-unthinkable U.S. toll: "1 million empty chairs around the family dinner table," reports Associated Press. Addressing the summit virtually, prime minister Narendra Modi said "WTO rules, particularly TRIPS, need to be more flexible" and the World Health Organisation (WHO) must be reformed and strengthened to build a more resilient global health security architecture." "It is clear that a coordinated global response is required to combat future health emergencies. We must build a resilient global supply chain and ensure equitable access to vaccines and medicine… As a responsible member of the global community, India is ready to play a key role in these efforts," he said, according to an India Today report. Modi also called for an awareness campaign around India's traditional medicines. "Last month we laid the foundation of the WHO Centre for Traditional Medicine in India with an aim to make this age-old knowledge available to the world. It is clear that a coordinated global response is required to combat future health emergencies." The White House stated that the summit has "garnered new financial commitments totaling more than $3 billion in new funding, not yet announced, above and beyond pledges made to date in 2022. This includes over $2 billion for immediate COVID-19 response and $962 million in commitments toward a new pandemic preparedness and global health security fund at the World Bank." | | Biden hosts Southeast Asian leaders for ASEAN Summit as US signals Indo-Pacific commitment | | Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathered in Washington on Thursday for a summit with US President Joe Biden that has faced delays and postponement. According to a Nikkei Asia report, the special two-day summit that kicked off Thursday commemorates the 45th anniversary of relations between Washington and the bloc and is the first in-person meeting since 2017. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who will leave office in June, is skipping the summit, while Myanmar military leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing was not invited amid a diplomatic freeze-out of his regime. The summit with ASEAN nations Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam comes before Biden's trip next week to South Korea and Japan — his first visit to Asia as president — for talks with those two countries' leaders. He will attend a meeting of Quad leaders also involving Australia, India and Japan. Associated Press quoted a White House 'Asia policy adviser' as saying that Biden administration remains committed to stepping up relations with Southeast Asian nations to address climate, economic and education initiatives. Reuters quoted Biden's Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell as saying at a think tank on Wednesday that a deep sense exists in the administration of the need not to be distracted from the Indo-Pacific, and said it would seek to increase US investment and engagement in ASEAN countries. He said China, Myanmar, Taiwan and Ukraine would be among the issues discussed. Hindustan Times reports that "amid criticism that the US has been outmanoeuvred by China's aggressive economic and trading arrangements in the Indo-Pacific… the Biden administration has been working on an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) to step up its economic footprint, particularly in the arena of norm-setting, as a part of its Indo-Pacific strategy." The report further quotes a statement from the US State Department as saying that Washington "sees India's participation in the IPEF as 'very important', it views India as a 'vital partner' in its economic engagement in the region, and has been 'engaging very actively' with the Indian government to address questions about the framework." | | Once ousted, Marcos family back in power in Philippines as 'Bongbong' wins prez polls in a landslide | | Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator whose family plundered billions of dollars, was elected president of the Philippines by a landslide, according to preliminary results, 36 years after his father was ousted in a historic revolution, reports Washington Post. The report adds, "for critics, it marks a further backward slide for a nation — once admired as one of the few democracies in Southeast Asia — that continues to trudge down the path of populism. Marcos succeeds the tough-talking President Rodrigo Duterte, best known for his crude insults and a war on drugs that has left thousands dead. Duterte's daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, is Marcos's running mate and the next vice president. The tandem, which has dubbed itself the 'Uniteam' for its supposed message of unity, is a political marriage of the country's two most powerful dynasties." According to Nikkei Asia, "Marcos's candidacy received a major boost from its alliance with Sara Duterte", who "topped opinion polls for president last year, but eventually decided to make way for Marcos. This created a formidable alliance that consolidates the two political dynasties' bailiwicks -- the northern Philippines of the Marcoses and southern island of Mindanao of the Dutertes. Sara Duterte also won the separate vice-presidential race by a huge margin. The president and vice president are elected separately in the Philippines, but this is the first time since 2004 that candidates from the same ticket would be elected to the country's two top jobs." Reuters says that Marcos's win is a "boon for China, and awkward for US" and quotes Greg Poling, director of Southeast Asia Studies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, as saying that "Bongbong Marcos's apparent victory will be met with disappointment among many in Washington… But it doesn't change the fact that the US-Philippines alliance is more vital than ever and the United States needs to continue working to deepen it." CNN reports that US president Joe Biden spoke with Marcos on Wednesday, congratulating him on his election win, while China's president Xi Jinping also congratulated him, saying the two countries would "stand together through thick and thin." | | Finland seeks to join NATO 'without delay', Russia threatens retaliation | | In a move that has further incensed Russia, Finland's prime minister and president has said the country must apply to join the NATO military alliance "without delay", in a historic policy shift triggered by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Finland's neighbour Sweden is also close to a decision on asking to join NATO after decades of following a neutral path, reports Reuters. Finland shares a 1,300 km border and a difficult past with Russia but the war on Ukraine the Nordic country had refrained from joining NATO in order to maintain friendly relations with its eastern neighbour. However, president Sauli Niinisto and prime minister Sanna Marin on Thursday said in a joint statement that "NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days." "Public support in Finland for joining the western alliance has shot up since Russian troops marched into Ukraine, reaching 76%, according to a recent poll carried out by public broadcaster YLE. This marks a substantial shift in public perception as previous support for joining NATO had hovered around 25% for many years," observes DW. Russia reacted with fury. "Finland's accession to NATO will cause serious damage to bilateral Russian-Finnish relations," the Russian foreign ministry wrote in a statement Thursaday. "Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop the threats to its national security that arise in this regard," the statement said. In a press conference held later in the day, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said "Finland's accession to NATO certainly threatens Russia's security, and will entail Russia elaborating measures to ensure its security," reports Politico. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Tracing the roots of Sri Lanka's economic meltdown | | Dushni Weerakoon of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka writes in Foreign Affairs that Sri Lanka's economic malaise predates the pandemic. Its worst economic downturn in history was caused by a combination of extravagant government spending, ambitious infrastructure projects as well as tanking of the tourism sector due to the pandemic. The war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the pandemic, including a troubling surge in China, continue to threaten global economic stability—and the prospects of Sri Lanka's recovery. | | Marcos Jr's win in Philippines should not cause panic in West | | Asia-based academic Richard Heydarian writes in Nikkei Asia on 'Bongong' Marcos Jr's victory in Philippines presidential elections. He argues that this election result should not be a cause for panic in the West. "The West should engage the incoming Marcos administration government on a mutually-respectful basis and gently advocate for good governance reforms, as well as empower civil society lest Manila draw closer to authoritarian powers such as China." | | Chinese premier Li Keqiang is throwing a challenge at Xi Jinping | | Lingling Wei writes in Wall Street Journal that for years, Chinese president Xi Jinping managed to sideline China's second most powerful political figure, premier Li Keqiang, but now Li is re-emerging as a force in his own right, helping press Xi to dial back some measures that steered the country away from Western-style capitalism and is also trying to influence the selection of his replacement when he steps down as premier in less than a year. | | Rift in CCP over China's policy towards US and Ukraine war | | Jayadeva Ranade, president, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, writes in The Tribune that there are "discernible" signs of "obvious disagreement inside the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on China's policy towards the United States and the stance on the war in Ukraine. | | A greater danger awaits world if Xi doesn't change policy course | | Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd writes in Wall Street Journal that a lot will depend on whether Chinese president Xi Jinping is willing and able to change course after getting China's policy direction on Covid and economy badly wrong. Rudd contends that "if not, the world may enter an even more dangerous phase if Xi turns to nationalism and greater foreign-policy assertion to reinforce his domestic political legitimacy in the face of a slowing Chinese economy." | | Beijing's lockdown situation won't be as bad as Shanghai | | How scared are people in Beijing of a COVID lockdown? Jeremy Goldkorn, editor of SupChina, interviewed colleague Anthony Tao, a resident of Beijing, via video call to understand if Tao's fellow residents are stockpiling food in fear of strict Shanghai-style lockdowns that could come to the city if COVID rates continue to rise. Tao says "I truly don't believe that the situation here will be as bad as it was in Shanghai." | | Analysing China's policy dilemma on India that triggered border crisis | | Why did China begin a border standoff with India in May 2020 that continues till now and has already resulted in the worst fighting between Indian and Chinese troops in over four decades and fatalities on both sides? In this paper for Stimson Center, Antara Ghoshal Singh pores over Chinese domestic debates and analyses on India in the years preceding the Galwan clash and thereafter to get a clearer understanding of China's motivations and policy dilemma on India that created the crisis. She also concludes that India has significant leverage over Chinese strategy. | | US Indo-Pacific policy has a big economic gap | | As the ASEAN summit begins in Washington, Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore's foreign ministry, writes in Foreign Affairs that "the most obvious gap in US policy in the Indo-Pacific is economic. Despite China's growing economic weight in Southeast Asia, the US remains an important bilateral economic partner for most ASEAN members… Washington needs to leverage this advantage through more proactive and coordinated public-private efforts." | | US, China lock horns in ASEAN region with flawed strategies | | What do the US and China, two superpowers, have in common as they woo the Southeast Asian region? Flawed strategies, argues James Crabtree of International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia in Foreign Policy. He writes, "even if neither Washington nor Beijing's new initiatives succeed, the mere existence of flawed projects like the IPEF and GSI provides an intriguing reflection on Asia's coming era of great-power competition." | | Finland's move to join NATO reflects Europe's geopolitical tremor | | What would Finland bring to the table for NATO? While analysing this question in War on the Rocks, researcher Heljä Ossa and professor Tommi Koivula of Finnish National Defence University write that "the current NATO debate in Finland manifests the scale of the geopolitical tremor that Russia's aggressiveness and unpredictability have unleashed: nobody can make it alone anymore. This is particularly true of small countries like Finland." | | PODCAST WATCH | | Do China and India have a common cause on Ukraine war? | | We recommend this edition of the 'Sinica Podcast', where host Kaiser Kuo speaks to Manjari Chatterjee Miller of Council on Foreign Relations and Manoj Kewalramani of the Takshashila Institution on the complex relationship between China and India in light of the Russo-Ukrainian War. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
