| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | As Ukraine war rages on with no end in sight, we continue to keep our focus on India, its neighbourhood and the Indo-Pacific. This edition scans Boris Johnson's India visit, post-Imran developments in Pakistan, Sri Lanka's deepening problems, Shanghai's Covid nightmare and China's security deal with Solomon Islands | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Roasted back home over 'partygate' scandal, visiting British PM Johnson hopes for good news in India | | British prime minister Boris Johnson began his two-day India trip from Gujarat as he landed in Ahmedabad on Thursday and went straight to Mahatma Gandhi's Sabarmati Ashram, where he spent nearly 30 minutes. After that, Johnson met Ahmedabad-based industrialist Gautam Adani to discuss "business and investment opportunities" and then flew by a chopper to Halol, near Vadodara, to visit a new factory set up by UK-based JCB company to manufacture machines and equipment. Johnson visit to the JCB plant and symbolic riding of a bulldozer kicked off a bit of a furore since the JCB machinery has been used in a controversial demolition drive in New Delhi. Prime minister Narendra Modi received Johnson at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi on Friday morning. The British PM said, "This is a very auspicious moment in relationship and friendship between two democracies. The world's largest democracy in India, the UK, one of the world's oldest democracies and I don't think things have ever been as strong and good between us as they are now." Johnson said he is hoping to seal a free-trade deal with India "by the end of the year, by the autumn" and towards that end, he has signalled greater visa flexibility News agency PTI reports that Johnson brings with him investments and trade deals worth £1 billion from software engineering to health that will create nearly 11,000 jobs in the UK. India and the UK launched FTA negotiations in January this year and the third round of will begin next week as the two sides are keen to double bilateral trade by 2030. The United Kingdom is also looking to increase its footprint in defence production in India, reports ANI. Even as he pursues deals in India, Johnson is facing a turbulent time back home over 'partygate scandal'. The British PM will face a third investigation into whether he knowingly misled British parliament when he denied that any rules were broken in Downing Street after stories emerged of lockdown breaking parties and gatherings taking place during the Covid-19 pandemic, reports CNN. | | Shehbaz's cabinet takes oath in Pakistan; India condemns US lawmaker Omar's visit to PoK | | In Pakistan, prime minister Shehbaz Sharif's 34-member Cabinet was sworn in on Tuesday after several days of delay, with senate chairman Sadiq Sanjrani administering the oath to new ministers as president Arif Alvi did not attend the ceremony. The ceremony was scheduled to be held on Monday, but president Alvi had refused to administer the oath to the lawmakers, compelling the government to postpone it, reports The Hindu, via PTI. Pakistani newspaper Dawn reports that Shehbaz also appointed three advisers, taking the total strength of the cabinet to 37. The report quotes PM Shehbaz as saying that the "federal cabinet was formed after 'thorough consultations' with PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif and the government's coalition allies. PPP's Hina Rabbani Khar was appointed the state minister for foreign affairs while PML-N's Rana Sanaullah was given the interior ministry." The report has a full list of the portfolio. Times of India reports that Pakistan's former three-time PM Nawaz, who is exiled in London, "is returning to the country after Eid to voluntarily face the judicial process in all cases against him." PPP chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari will get the foreign minister's berth after returning from London, adds the report. Pakistan is in dire economic straits and new finance minister 57-year-old economist and businessman Miftah Ismail must douse the fire on several fronts. But he must do so very quickly. Meanwhile, US lawmaker Ilhan Omar, a Democrat from Minnesota, is on a four-day visit of Pakistan till April 24. Omar, an India-baiter, visited Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), prompting a condemnation and stinging response from New Delhi. In a media briefing on Thursday, the spokesperson of India's ministry of external affairs said, "We have noted that US Representative Ilhan Omar has visited a part of the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir that is currently illegally occupied by Pakistan. If such a politician wishes to practice her narrow-minded politics at home, that may be her business. But violating our territorial integrity and sovereignty in its pursuit makes it ours. This visit is condemnable." | | Protests deepen in Sri Lanka over killing of anti-govt protestor as prez Gotabaya appoints new cabinet | | Sri Lanka's president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, prime minister Mahinda are still clinging on to their seats but they are facing a groundswell of sustained, defiant protests from ordinary Sri Lankans demanding their ouster. Those protests intensified even more owing to the fatal shooting of an anti-government protester by the police on Tuesday that has sparked wide condemnation domestically and internationally. According to a report in The Hindu, "the police opened fire on demonstrators in Rambukkana town, located in Kegalle district and about 100 km from Colombo, amid non-stop agitations by citizens across the country. They are demanding that the ruling Rajapaksa brothers resign, taking responsibility for the deepening economic crisis in the country. Chaminda Lakshan, the first victim of police violence in the ongoing demonstrations, was a father of two, and in his early forties." The police firing on demonstrators — demanding immediate resignation of Rajapaksa brothers over lack of fuel, food, medicines, basic commodities and sky high inflation triggered by severe shortage of foreign exchange — resulted in one death and injury to 13, reports Associated Press. The report adds, thousands of protesters continued to occupy the entrance to the president's office, blaming him for the economic crisis. At night, the crowd outside his office in Colombo held up their phones as illumination during a vigil condemning the shooting in Rambukkana. Earlier in the week, president Gotabaya admitted under pressure that he made mistakes that led to the country's worst economic crisis in decades and appointed a new cabinet of 17 ministers that did not include two members of the Rajapaksa clan — brothers Chamal and Basil — and Namal Rajapaksa, their nephew, who earlier held key portfolios. Sri Lanka has announced a sovereign default on its huge foreign debt and has approached the IMF for loan but the monetary body told Reuters that discussions with Sri Lanka on a potential IMF loan program are "at an early stage and any deal would require 'adequate assurances' that the island country's debts can be put on a sustainable path." | | Shanghai's Covid nightmare leads to hunger, anger among citizens, supply chains grind to a halt | | There are three aspects to the ongoing crisis in Shanghai, the center of China's current Covid-19 outbreak. One, the outbreak itself that refuses to be controlled despite the toughest lockdown and 'zero-Covid' policy in the planet. Bloomberg quoted Wu Qianyu, an official with the city's health commission, as saying on Thursday that Shanghai has experienced a sharp increase in its number of seriously-ill Covid patients, and the number as of Wednesday of patients in severe or critical condition more than tripled to 159 from just over 50 on Tuesday. The city, currently the epicenter of China's worst outbreak since Wuhan more than two years ago, also reported eight deaths Wednesday, bringing total fatalities from the current outbreak to 25. According to city authorities, "tough measures" would remain in place. That means supermarkets would remain shut to shoppers, vehicles would not be allowed on roads without approval, and only one person from each household would be allowed to leave home each day in some towns in Chongming. The second aspect of the crisis is, as CNN puts it, "hunger and anger in Shanghai's unending lockdown nightmare." Draconian lockdown measures and scarcity of supplies have raised the prospect of people going hungry and increasingly united by their rising anger. The CNN report of a journalist, a Shanghai resident, says "despite the censors' ferocious effort to erase all traces of bad news, social media users keep recounting and re-posting heartbreaking stories… about the lockdown chaos and misery: from sneaking out in darkness to barter some food with a neighbor, to learning harrowing experiences of a friend dumped into to a hastily built isolation ward with leaking roofs and overflowing toilets, and hearing the wailing of an old woman next door whose children were unable to see their newly deceased father one last time." As entire communities are getting relocated as part of extreme measures to stop the virus, the third aspect of the crisis is the logistics disarray, with quarantined truckers, piled-up containers and transport of goods into one of China's biggest manufacturing and export hubs grinding to a halt sending shockwaves through global supply chains. | | China inks security pact with Solomon Islands, triggering panic in Australia, US | | In a deal that has stokes security fears in Australia and the United States, China said on Tuesday it had signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands, a move that has heightened concerns of Washington, and its allies Australia and New Zealand about growing Chinese influence in a region traditionally under their sway. "China's foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin announced the agreement in Beijing on Tuesday evening, saying it would involve China cooperating with Honiara on maintaining social order, protecting people's safety, aid, combating natural disasters and helping safeguard national security. Solomon Islands Foreign Affairs Minister Jeremiah Manele confirmed the signing of the pact", according to ABC News of Australia. Why has this deal raised the hackles in US and Australia? Beijing claims the security deal does not have a military element. "But according to a draft document leaked last month by Solomon Islands opposition politicians, it could allow China to send police, paramilitary forces and soldiers to the country and have naval ships dock at its ports for resupply and crew transfers. US officials have said the agreement appeared to leave the door open for China to send military forces to the islands", says a Financial Times report. Prospect of a Chinese naval base in Australia's backyard has shaken Canberra, with Australia's foreign minister Marise Payne and Pacific minister Zed Seselja calling the deal "deeply disappointing", and the Australia's Opposition party calling it the "worst failure of Australian foreign policy in the Pacific" in 80 years. Latest reports say an American delegation led by Joe Biden administration's Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell has arrived in the Solomon Islands for talks. Global Times called the move "an effort by the US to nullify the China security pact", using the region as "hegemonic fulcrum". | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | China's nuclear arsenal is ushering in an unpredictable tripolar system | | In his piece in Foreign Affairs magazine on China's growing nuclear arsenal, Andrew F Krepinevich Jr writes "for well over half a century, we have inhabited a world of two great nuclear powers. Although never quite as stable as it appeared, this bipolar nuclear system nevertheless succeeded in avoiding nuclear weapons' use. But that system is now passing into history, and the tripolar system that will emerge appears, at first blush, as though it will be far more fragile and unpredictable than its bipolar predecessor." | | Russia not targeting civilians, claims Lavrov | | In an interview to Geeta Mohan of India Today, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov denied allegations of war crimes committed by the Russian army, and said: "the real reason [for the war] is the complacency of most countries after World War II. They violated their promises to Russian leadership and started moving Nato eastward after the Soviet Union disappeared." | | India must deepen partnership with EU | | Pranab Dhal Samanta writes in Economic Times that India must deepen its partnership with the European Union and look at Europe through the prism of "not just Britain, France and Germany. The Scandinavian countries, the East Europe bloc, among others are of equal significance as Europe pulls together to deal with new strategic realities." | | 3 reasons why India-Australia trade deal is a 'win' | | Writing on the recent India-Australia trade deal, Akhil Ramesh argues in Nikkei Asia that it signals three important developments: "First, India is now open for business and is slowly emerging from its protectionist cocoon. Second, there are large markets beyond China in the Indo-Pacific region for Australian businesses to hedge against acts of economic coercion. Third, addressing climate change need not be a Chinese resources-reliant initiative." | | India shouldn't rush to export wheat in wartime | | Devesh Roy and Neelkanth Mishra write in Indian Express that India should not rush into exporting wheat to grab the 'opportunity' presented by Russia-Ukraine conflict. They argue that India's prospects for sustained wheat exports are limited. The surplus stocks are a fraction of the quantity exported annually by Russia and Ukraine. | | Cranks triggered Sri Lanka's economic crisis | | Mihir Sharma writes in Bloomberg that one of the main reasons why Sri Lanka has suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis is that the Rajapaksas have turned the nation's policymaking over to cranks, especially in two crucial fields — agriculture and monetary policy. | | Sharif must undo the damage Imran has done to Pakistan | | Husain Haqqani writes in The Hill that Imran Khan's "incendiary rhetoric is threatening chaos in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation with 200 million people. The new government, headed by Shahbaz Sharif, three-time chief minister of Punjab province, now faces the difficult task of undoing the consequences of Khan's bombast and incompetence." | | Double-dealing Scholz is acting as Putin's ally | | Wolfgang Münchau writes in The Spectator that German chancellor Olaf Scholz is "clearly playing a double game… While Scholz is acting behind the scenes against Ukraine, he is pretending to be a loyal member of the western alliance. His double game is now turning into a crisis within the coalition." | | China is unlikely to mediate in Ukraine war | | Analyst Yun Sun of Stimson Center ponders over the question whether China will act as a mediator to stop Russia's war against Ukraine. She writes, "On the most basic level, China will need Russia to extend an invitation or at least express its willingness for China to facilitate a dialogue. So far, Ukraine has asked China to play that role, but Russia has not. Following the principle of host-country consent, without Russia's agreement and invitation for China to mediate, China is not likely to make an offer Russia may not accept." | | Solomon Islands deal exposes China's lie | | Richard McGregor writes in Nikkei Asia that "the announcement by China and the Solomon Islands in late March that their two governments had concluded a bilateral security agreement has been a teachable moment on multiple fronts. Among many lessons, the most important is that the world can now confidently ignore Beijing's regular denials that it has no interest in securing a military presence in the Pacific." | | PODCAST WATCH | | Could Elon Musk save Twitter? | | Could Elon Musk save Twitter? We recommend this edition of The Spectator's podcast where host Freddy Gray speaks to Kat Rosenfield, the author and UnHerd columnist, about Musk's proposal to buy a controlling stake in the social media giant. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
