Cinema News: Democrats have momentum, Republicans have problems

December 15, 2025 | View in browser

By George Skelton

Capitol Journal Columnist

It turns out Proposition 50 smacked California Republicans with a double blow heading into the 2026 congressional elections.

First, there was the reshaping of House districts aimed at flipping five Republican-held seats to Democrats.

Now, we learn that the proposition itself juiced up Democratic voter enthusiasm for the elections.

Voter enthusiasm normally results in a higher casting of ballots.

It's all about the national battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives — and Congress potentially exercising its constitutional duty to provide some checks and balance against the president. Democrats need a net pickup of only three seats in November's elections to dethrone Republicans.

President Trump is desperate to keep his GOP toadies in power. So, he has coerced — bullied and threatened — some red-state governors and legislatures into rejiggering Democratic-held House seats to make them more Republican-friendly.

When Texas quickly obliged, Gov. Gavin Newsom retaliated with a California Democratic gerrymander aimed at neutralizing the Lone Star State's partisan mid-decade redistricting.

California's counterpunch became Proposition 50, which was approved by a whopping 64.4% of the state's voters.

Not only did Proposition 50 redraw some GOP-held House seats to tinge them blue, it stirred up excitement about the 2026 elections among Democratic voters.

That's the view of Mark Baldassare, polling director for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. And it makes sense. Umpteen millions of dollars were spent by Newsom and Proposition 50 backers advertising the evils of Trump and the need for Democrats to take over the House.

A PPIC poll released last week showed a significant "enthusiasm gap" between Democratic and Republican voters regarding the House contests.

"One of the outcomes of Proposition 50 is that it focused voters on the midterm elections and made them really excited about voting next year," Baldassare says.

At least, Democrats are showing excitement. Republicans, not so much.

In the poll, likely voters were asked whether they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the congressional elections or less enthusiastic.

Overall, 56% were more enthusiastic and 41% less enthusiastic. But that's not the real story.

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The eye-opener is that among Democrats, an overwhelming 72% were more enthusiastic. And 60% of Republicans were less enthusiastic.

"For Democrats, that's unusually high," Baldassare says.

To put this in perspective, I looked back at responses to the same question asked in a PPIC poll exactly two years ago before the 2024 elections. At that time, Democrats were virtually evenly split over their enthusiasm or lack of it concerning the congressional races. In fact, Republicans expressed more enthusiasm.

Still, Democrats gained three congressional seats in California in 2024. So currently they outnumber Republicans in the state's House delegation by a lopsided 43 to 9.

If Democrats could pick up three seats when their voters weren't even lukewarm about the election, huge party gains seem likely in California next year. Democratic voters presumably will be buoyed by enthusiasm and the party's candidates will be boosted by gerrymandering.

"Enthusiasm is contagious," says Dan Schnur, a former Republican operative who teaches political communication at USC and UC Berkeley. "If the party's concentric circle of committed activists is enthusiastic, that excitement tends to spread outward to other voters."

Schnur adds: "Two years ago, Democrats were not motivated about Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Now they're definitely motivated about Donald Trump. And in order to win midterm elections, you need to have a motivated base."

Democratic strategist David Townsend says that "enthusiasm is the whole ballgame. It's the ultimate barometer of whether my message is working and the other side's is not working."

The veteran consultant recalls that Democrats "used to go door to door handing out potholders, potted plants, refrigerator magnets and doughnuts trying to motivate voters.

"But the best turnout motivator Democrats have ever had in California is Donald J. Trump."

In the poll, 71% of voters disapproved of the way Trump is handling his job; just 29% approved. It was even worse for Congress, with 80% disapproving.

Among Democratic voters alone, disapproval of Trump was practically off the chart at 97%.

But 81% of Republicans approved of the president.

Among voters of all political persuasions who expressed higher than usual enthusiasm about the House elections, 77% said they'd support the Democratic candidate. Also: 79% said Congress should be controlled by Democrats, 84% disapproved of how Congress is handling its job and 79% disapproved of Trump.

And those enthused about the congressional elections believe that, by far, the most important problem facing the nation is "political extremism [and] threats to democracy." A Democratic shorthand for Trump.

The unseemly nationwide redistricting battle started by Trump is likely to continue well into the election year as some states wrestle with whether to oblige the power-hungry president and others debate retaliating against him.

Sane politicians on both sides should have negotiated a ceasefire immediately after combat erupted. But there wasn't enough sanity to even begin talks.

Newsom was wise politically to wade into the brawl — wise for California Democrats and also for himself as a presidential hopeful trying to become a national hero to party activists.

"Eleven months before an election, nothing is guaranteed," Schnur says. "But these poll numbers suggest that Democrats are going to start the year with a big motivational advantage."

Trump is the Democrats' proverbial Santa who keeps on giving.