| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Democrats and Republicans are locked in a dead heat over control of US congress in midterm polls with the latter looking likely to win a narrow House majority. Dems may retain Senate in better-than-expected results that has boosted Biden and put a question mark over Trump. Meanwhile, Jaishankar was in Moscow (pic above) where he delivered more home truths, rich nations are finally pledging climate finance at COP27, Russia has announced withdrawal from the sole Ukrainian city it occupied and G20 summit gets under way next week in Bali where Biden is slated to meet Xi. Sparks may fly. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | No 'red wave' as GOP, Democrats locked in dead heat over control of Congress in US midterm polls | | Tuesday's midterm elections in the United States, that decide whether the Democrats or Republicans will take control of Congress halfway through the US president's four-year term, threw a curveball. Traditionally, the party not in power does well, and the Republicans this time were extra hopeful of a "red wave" following Joe Biden's low ratings, rising inflation, high fuel prices and concern over law and order. As it turned out, Democrats put up a stronger-than-expected defence and "red wave" was little more than a "red mist". As things stand on Thursday, "control of the US Senate now hinges on the outcome of three states: Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, where a run-off election will be held on 6 December," says BBC, adding "the Democrats have secured 48 seats to the Republicans' 49. Four races — Alaska, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — have yet to be called." As far as the House of Representatives is concerned, Republicans "are inching closer to a 218-seat majority. They have so far secured 211 seats, compared to 193 for the Democrats. A total of 218 seats are needed to gain a majority in the legislative body, which has 435 members." The weaker-than-expected results have frustrated the Republicans who are now searching for answers. Wall Street Journal says "the GOP still appeared on track to win the majority in the House, though with a much smaller margin than many election analysts and party officials had predicted, amid concerns over inflation and crime under Democratic control of Washington. In the Senate, the margin will likely be tight, and could once again come down to a Georgia runoff as it did in 2020, puncturing party hopes of winning a comfortable majority." One reason why Republicans suffered, according to analysts, is the likely backlash from women over abortion rights. According to New York Times, "in the first major election since the Supreme Court overturned the case that ensured a federal right to an abortion for nearly half a century, abortion rights broke through, lifting Democrats to victory in Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan and New Mexico. Voters in three states — California, Vermont and highly contested Michigan — decided to protect abortion rights in their state constitutions. In a fourth, Kentucky, a conservative bastion and home to Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, voters rejected an amendment saying their constitution gave no right to an abortion." Read more analysis of this issue here and here. The results have also sparked a rare backlash against Donald Trump, who still has an iron grip over the Republican party. The former president is facing waves of blame after key Republican candidates, handpicked and endorsed by him, lost in midterms, says Axios. As Trump comes under fire from within his party many analysts are pointing out that Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who coasted to a resounding victory, is the future of GOP. Trump isn't going anywhere soon, but his expected announcement of running for 2024 elections may be delayed. | | Global South in acute pain, Jaishankar tells Lavrov in Moscow; Janet Yellen arrives in India | | In his first visit to Moscow since the beginning of the Ukraine war, external affairs minister S Jaishankar after meeting Russian deputy prime minister Denis Manturov and foreign minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday, said "the global economy is too inter-dependent not to be impacted by a significant conflict and the Global South is feeling 'this pain very acutely', especially after two years of the pandemic," reports Indian Express. Speaking to reporters are the bilateral meeting with Lavrov, Jaishankar said India "strongly advocates a return to dialogue and diplomacy" and is on the side of "peace, respect for international law and support for the UN Charter", adds the report. "He even offered help in issues including food grains and fertiliser shipments, and support for any initiative that de-risks the global economy." On buying oil from Russia, that has now become India's top supplier, Jaishankar said he would "like to keep that going". "First of all, there's stress on the energy market. This is a stress that has been created by a combination of factors, but as the world's third-largest consumer of oil and gas — a consumer without a high level of income — our fundamental obligation is to ensure that Indian consumers have the best access to the most advantageous terms in the international markets," said the minister. The Hindu reports that "Jaishankar repeated prime minister Narendra Modi's words that 'this is not an era of war', and called for dialogue and diplomacy between Moscow and Kiev. However, while Jaishankar said India was ready to support any initiative to 'de-risk' the situation in Ukraine and promote global stability, he did not make any specific offer to mediate in Russia-Ukraine talks." Meanwhile, Reuters reports that US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, slated to arrive in India on Friday, will tell New Delhi that ending Russia's war in Ukraine is a "moral imperative," in prepared remarks released ahead of her visit, but that economic challenges from the conflict and supply strains were drawing India and the United States closer together. | | At UN climate conference COP27, rich nations are finally promising to put funds where their mouths are | | COP27, the ongoing UN climate conference in Egypt that started Sunday and will run till November 18, is witnessing the attendance of over 120 heads of states, including US president Joe Biden and British prime minister Rishi Sunak. PM Narendra Modi has skipped the summit. The Indian delegation is being led by Union environment minister Bhupender Yadav. In a blog post, Yadav said, "India is very clear that the world needs a multilaterally agreed definition of climate finance. India does not recognise loans to be climate finance because it pushes vulnerable countries further into debts. Our focus at COP27 during our negotiations is thus on concessional and climate-specific grants," according to a report in Outlook. "Developing countries, including India, are pushing rich countries to agree to a new global climate finance target—also known as the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG)—which they say should be in trillions as the costs of addressing and adapting to climate change have grown," reports The Hindu. It adds, quoting sources, that "at a high-level ministerial dialogue on NCQG at COP27 on Wednesday, India highlighted that climate actions to meet the NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) targets require financial, technological, and capacity-building support from developed countries." NDCs are national plans to limit global temperature rise to well below two degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. A report released Tuesday, just ahead of talks on climate finance, says developing countries need $1 trillion a year in external financing for climate action by the end of the decade and to match that with their own funds. This funding, said the report, was required to cut emissions, boost resilience, deal with damage from climate change and restore nature and land, according to Reuters. After decades of resistance, it seems the rich countries are finally coming around to promising direct climate aid, says New York Times. "By the end of the third day of the conference, several European countries had pledged cash for a new loss and damage fund." | | Russia declares withdrawal from Ukrainian city Kherson in a humiliating war reversal | | In a major decision that may decide the fate of the Ukraine war, "Russia on Wednesday ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the city of Kherson and its near surroundings in southern Ukraine, surrendering the key regional capital as it redeployed forces to the east bank of the Dnieper River in the latest major setback for President Vladimir Putin's war," reports Washington Post. The report adds, "It was unclear whether the order to pull back had been fully implemented, and Ukrainian officials have said they are suspicious that any Russian retreat could be part of a trap. The Ukrainians also said that it would probably take several more days before their troops could enter the city and that they might still face heavy fighting as Russians dug in to more advantageous positions." Ukrainian troops are cautiously pushing towards Kherson on Thursday, though suspicion abounds and Kyiv is wary that Russian troops could still turn Kherson into a "city of death" and it would take them at least a week to withdraw. In an interview in Kyiv, Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov told Reuters that Russia had a contingent of 40,000 troops in Kherson region and intelligence showed its forces remained in the city, around the city and on the west bank of the vast Dnipro River. Economist says "a withdrawal, if it really happens, would be humiliating both for Russia's army, which is being steadily pushed back, and for Mr Putin, who declared Kherson to be an inalienable part of Russia just weeks ago." New York Times reports that "the withdrawal order came from Russia's defense minister, Sergei K Shoigu, in a meeting with top military leaders that was broadcast on Russian state television, after General Sergei V Surovikin, Moscow's commander in Ukraine, explained that heavy shelling by advancing Ukrainian forces had made the Russian position west of the Dnipro River, where Kherson is, untenable." | | Putin won't attend G20 summit in Bali; Biden to discuss US "red lines" in face-to-face with Xi | | The two-day G20 summit, comprising Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK, the US and the European Union (EU), begins in Bali, Indonesia, on Tuesday. Russian president Vladimir Putin will not attend the gathering, Indonesian and Russian officials confirmed on Thursday, ending weeks of speculation about a possible confrontation with the US president, Joe Biden. Russia's president will be represented by his veteran foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, officials said, according to a report in The Guardian. Associated Press reports (via PBS) that Biden will meet Chinese president Xi Jinping Monday on the sidelines of the Bali summit, a face-to-face meeting that comes amid increasingly strained US-China relations, according to the White House. It will be the first in-person meeting between the leaders of the world's two biggest economies since Biden became president in January 2021 and comes weeks after Xi was awarded a third five-year term as the Chinese Communist Party leader during the party's national congress. South China Morning Post reports that on Wednesday, during a post-election press conference, Biden said he would discuss American "red lines" over Taiwan among other issues. "Look, I'm not willing to make any fundamental concessions… What I want to do with him when we talk is lay out what each of our red lines are, understand what he believes to be in the critical national interests of China, what I know to be in the critical interests in the United States, and to determine whether or not they conflict with one another," he said. "And if they do, how to resolve and how to work it out." Modi, who is flying to Bali to attend the summit, "on Tuesday unveiled the logo, theme and website of India's G20 presidency. The logo bears a lotus and the message of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam — One Earth, One Family, One Future'," reports Indian Express, adding, "India will assume the presidency of G20 from the current chair, Indonesia, on December 1, and hold the post for a year. The summit is scheduled to be held in India on September 9 and 10, 2023." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Western intelligentsia is anti-India: Prof Babones | | In an interview with Firstpost's Utpal Kumar, American sociologist professor Salvatore Babones, who is being maligned as 'a foreign agent', says that the Western intelligentsia is not just anti-India and anti-Hindu, but it also works in tandem to romanticise the Caliphate. | | Premature to talk about India's role in Ukraine war: Jaishankar | | It is premature to ask whether India will have a role in brokering peace in Ukraine, external affairs minister S Jaishankar says in an interview with R Sukumar of Hindustan Times. | | India can make modest peace efforts in Ukraine | | The Ukraine conflict seems to have reached a deadlock. We are in a new phase in the conflict in which diplomacy could play a larger role. There might be many modest and practical ways in which Indian diplomacy could participate, writes C Raja Mohan in Indian Express. | | China's rise is not a disaster for us, says Vijay Gokhale | | We must not look upon the rise of China as a disaster for us and for the rest of the world, former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale tells Shubhajit Roy of Indian Express in an interview. | | West must get serious about 'loss and damage' in COP27 | | The climate summit won't bring change to Africa until the West gets serious about "loss and damage", Nosmot Gbadamosi writes in Foreign Policy. | | India must engage more with Taiwan | | As Xi begins his third term, we will witness a more assertive China that will continue the military intimidation of India and Taiwan, writes Sana Hashmi in Hindustan Times. | | G20 presidency won't be a cakewalk for India | | The fact that we have maintained neutrality on the Ukraine issue will help us to play a credible bridging role during our G20 presidency between the West and others and pursue the agenda we have in mind, former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal writes in News18. | | Why the 'red wave' didn't materialize for Republicans | | Sohrab Ahmari, editor of Compact, an American magazine, writes in New York Times that the Republicans "red wave" didn't materialize because the GOP still doesn't have a "worker's agenda" or a "national vision" to fit its working-class base. | | DeSantis is the new star for GOP, Trump is finished | | Donald Trump is finished. The future of the Republican Party belongs to Ron DeSantis, argues Allister Heath in The Telegraph. | | Do not write off Trump based on midterm results | | Midterm elections are midterm elections — important to restock Congress and the various offices around the country but almost worthless in predicting a presidential aspirant's immediate future. How many times have we read that Trump is finished, asks Jack Shafer in Politico. | | PODCAST | | Making sense of US midterm polls | | In this edition of 'Honestly' podcast with host Bari Weiss, the topic of discussion between journalists Mary Katharine Ham, Josh Kraushaar from Axios, Batya Ungar-Sargon from Newsweek, and Olivia Nuzzi of New York Magazine is the US midterm elections that threw up unexpected results. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
