| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Welcome to Firstpost's global brief after a week's hiatus. First up, we highlight India's dialogue with five central Asian states and analyse its significance. We also track New Delhi's Myanmar outreach, Putin's threat to NATO, Hong Kong's sham elections, demolition of a Tiananmen Memorial and the rise of a young student leader as the youngest president of Chile (pic above). | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Third India-Central Asian Dialogue gives New Delhi a toehold in complex regional diplomacy | | Foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan skipped a meeting of the Pakistan-hosted Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) foreign ministers' meet to take part in the third edition of India-Central Asia Dialogue hosted by New Delhi on Sunday. The dialogue started in 2019. The fact that the five central Asian FMs sent their deputies to OIC and attended the India-hosted talks where Afghanistan took centrestage, points to a success of India's regional diplomacy. As Hindustan Times observes in its report, "external affairs minister S Jaishankar set the stage for the discussions, saying in his televised opening remarks that India and the Central Asian states have similar concerns and objectives in Afghanistan, including the formation of an inclusive government, the fight against terrorism, and ensuring unhindered humanitarian assistance… He also called for a focus on 4Cs – commerce, capacity enhancement, connectivity and contacts – to take ties between India and Central Asia to the next level." "The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in an enormous setback to global health and to global economy. It has changed the way we imagined societies, workplaces, supply chains and governance. It also highlights the inadequacy of the existing multilateral structures to meet new and emerging threats. We need diversified supply chains and more regional solutions," according to the MEA readout of Jaishankar's opening remarks. The foreign ministers also called on Narendra Modi the following day, and the prime minister "emphasized the importance that India attaches to its long-standing relations with Central Asian countries, which are part of its 'extended neighbourhood'… and underlined the importance of maintaining cultural and people-to-people contacts between India and Central Asia, given the popularity of Indian films, music, yoga etc in the region. He also underscored the potential of enhanced economic cooperation between India and Central Asia, and the role of connectivity in that regard." There was also a joint statement, where "India welcomed the interest of Central Asian countries to utilize the services of Shahid Beheshti Terminal at Chabahar Port for facilitating their trade with India and beyond" and the ministers "reaffirmed the importance of UNSC Resolution 2593 (2021) which unequivocally demands that Afghan territory not be used for sheltering, training, planning or financing terrorist acts and called for concerted action against all terrorist groups." Some reports indicate that leaders of the fie central Asian states could attend upcoming Republic Day celebrations as chief guests. Times of India points out in an editorial that the "central Asian republics are looking to hedge against China's massive presence in their countries. And India with its expertise in sectors such as IT, space and medicine offers the perfect fit. In return… their massive natural resources – from gas to uranium – can fuel India's next phase of industrialisation. While the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project may be all but dead, efforts should redouble on linking Iran's Chabahar port with the International North-South Transport Corridor. This will give India direct access to central Asia, bypassing Pakistan." | | India raises security concerns, revival of democracy during foreign secretary's visit to Myanmar | | This week also marked another important outreach from India as it sent foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla on a two-day visit to meet the military junta in Myanmar, marking India's first official outreach to the military-backed regime that deposed the Aung San Suu Kyi government in a bloodless coup in February and has since imprisoned her. As The Hindu observes, "the visit is a tacit acknowledgement of New Delhi's recognition of the coup in Myanmar, given that the MEA statement formally referred to the "State Administration Council", an 11-member group of military officials and civilians set up by Min Aung Hlaing, who subsequently named himself 'Prime Minister'." India's outreach was the result of several necessities at once. At one level, it arose out of security concerns as India is experiencing an uptick in militancy in the northeast region with insurgent groups frequently taking refuge across the boundary in Myanmar. In fact, on December 15, Myanmar handed over to India five insurgents belonging to a terrorist group operating in the region bordering Myanmar. India is also worried about China's increasing influence in Myanmar, and has been trying to coax the Tatmadaw into following the democratic process. Notably, India had stated that it was "disturbed" by the military regime's imprisoning of Suu Kyi. Incidentally, Times of India reports that Shringla's request to meet the imprisoned Nobel laureate was "turned down" by the ruling military leadership. During his talks, Shringla "emphasized India's interest in seeing Myanmar's return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; and complete cessation of all violence. He (also) reaffirmed India's strong and consistent support to the ASEAN initiative and expressed hope that progress would be made in a pragmatic and constructive manner, based on the five point consensus." The MEA release states that the foreign secretary "stressed the need to put an end to any violence and maintain peace and stability in the border areas" and both sides "reiterated their commitment to ensure that their respective territories would not be allowed to be used for any activities inimical to the other." During his visit to Naypyidaw, Shringla on Wednesday handed over 10 lakh doses of Made-in-India vaccines to the representatives of the Myanmar Red Cross Society. | | Putin says ball in NATO's court as Russia continues troop buildup along Ukrainian border | | Russia says it is hoping for bilateral talks with NATO and the United States in January over security guarantees on NATO's expansion to the east, and yet Moscow is continuing to build up forces close to the Ukraine border, raising fears that it may try an invasion. Bloomberg reports that "satellite images show tanks, artillery and air-defense systems have been moved to border regions near Ukraine since November, according to defense-intelligence firm Janes. While the images appear to show limited troop numbers on the ground with the equipment, Russia would be able to reinforce them quickly and covertly with large deployments using trains or aircraft. The Kremlin says Russia is entitled to deploy troops wherever it likes on its own territory." In a press conference on Thursday, a belligerent Vladimir Putin said the ball is in NATO's court when asked about increasing fears of war in Ukraine, reports CNN. In response to a blunt question on whether Russia will invade Ukraine, Putin said: "How would the Americans react if on their frontier with Canada we deployed our missiles ... it's a question of security and you know our red lines." He stated that Russia does "not want any military action" but "we ask directly that there should be no further NATO movement to the East." The CNN report adds that Putin was also asked about his country's emerging alliance with China. He noted that China and Russia are increasing trade with one another, collaborating on human rights and tackling climate change. "China has one of the most advanced technological armies and we are working with them to develop high precision weaponry." Putin also offered a note of optimism, however. The Russian president said ongoing negotiations with the US on Moscow's proposed security guarantees were "positive" and hinted at fresh direct talks in the new year to be held in Geneva. | | Voters stay away as Beijing-backed candidates sweep 'patriots-only' polls in Hong Kong | | There was always a question mark over whether Hong Kong residents will take part in the "patriots-only" election to select Beijing-approved candidates for the city's legislature, and it turned out that voters didn't care to turn up for the polls, reflecting little confidence in Hong Kong's revamped electoral process tailormade to increase China's grip over the city state. Wall Street Journal, quoting government figures, reports that turnout on Sunday (December 19) "was the lowest for a legislative election since the city's return to China from British rule more than two decades ago. Just 30.2% of the city's 4.5 million registered voters cast ballots, In 2016, total turnout was 58.3%. The lowest post-handover turnout previously was 43.6% in 2000." CNN adds that in an attempt to boost the vote, "the city offered free public transport all day -- but rather than going to the polls, many Hong Kongers instead appeared to take the free trains and buses to hiking trails and campsites." The United States, UK and their western allies expressed "grave concern" over the "erosion of democratic elements" in Hong Kong, hours after pro-Beijing candidates were confirmed to occupy nearly every seat in the former British colony's new legislature. In a joint statement, the Five Eyes alliance said: "We, the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, and the United States secretary of state, noting the outcome of the legislative council elections in Hong Kong, express our grave concern over the erosion of democratic elements of the special administrative region's electoral system." The European Union and G7 nations on Monday also voiced their "grave concern" prompting an angry retort from China that rejected criticism by the Five Eyes western alliance, and attacked it for "wantonly" interfering with Beijing's internal affairs by "recklessly disregarding facts". Chinese president Xi Jinping, meanwhile, hailed the elections as a manifestation of the people's democratic rights and said the situation in Hong Kong had improved in the past year from chaos. In another significant development, a famous statue at the University of Hong Kong marking the Tiananmen Square massacre was removed late on Wednesday, reports BBC. "The statue showed piled-up corpses to commemorate the hundreds - possibly thousands - of pro-democracy protesters killed by Chinese authorities in 1989. It was one of the few remaining public memorials in Hong Kong commemorating the incident." | | Leftist student leader becomes Chile's youngest-ever president at 35, vows to end neoliberalism | | A far-Left student leader has become the youngest-ever President in Chile. The 35-year-old has won a historic victory on a promise of ambitious changes for a country that has been rocked in recent years by mass demonstrations against inequality and corruption. According to BBC, Gabriel Boric "ran on a platform promising radical reforms to the free-market economic model imposed by former dictator Gen Augusto Pinochet. One that, he says, is the root of the country's deep inequality, imbalances that came to the surface during protests in 2019 that triggered an official redraft of the constitution. After a polarising campaign, Boric defeated far-right rival José Antonio Kast in the second round of the presidential election by a surprising large margin." New York Times, in its profile of the enigmatic student leader, observes that "for many Chileans, Boric's win is the natural institutionalization of generational howl that has echoed throughout the country for at least a decade. He is seen as the voice of a generation that is ready to break with the past and that has taken to the streets by the tens and even hundreds of thousands to demand a more equal, inclusive country. "Boric's government will also oversee the final stages of the writing of a new Constitution to replace the dictatorship-era document that continues to define the nation." The Economist says that "with a programme focused on social justice, human rights, the environment and feminism, Boric represents a new millennial left in a region long dominated by populist demagogues. Yet his plan to create a Chilean welfare state will face serious economic and political challenges, which his team until now has appeared ill-positioned to manage. Whom Boric chooses to put in his cabinet will send the key signal about how radical his government will be." In its assessment on Boric, titled 'Venezuela or Europe: What kind of leftist is Chile's new president?', France24 notes that "Chile is one of the world's most unequal countries, where the top one percent hold more than a quarter of the wealth, according to the ECLAC UN agency. The rich-poor gulf was one of the sparks for a violent uprising in 2019 that left dozens dead and rocked the economy and political establishment. It is a situation Boric, who backed the protests, has vowed to correct." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | India will face a challenge in fleshing out 4Cs with Central Asian nations | | Former Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar writes in Indian Express that "the third meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue in Delhi on Sunday served a purpose to sensitise the Central Asian interlocutors that it attaches primacy to geoeconomics. But India will have a challenge on its hands to flesh out the "4Cs" concept that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar presented at the event — commerce, capacity enhancement, connectivity, and contact being the four pillars of a new geoeconomic partnership." | | India's Russia policy has too often been coloured by ideology | | C Raja Mohan, director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, argues in Indian Express that "while coping with the complex dynamic of Russia's relations with the West has been an enduring element of independent India's foreign policy, Delhi's thinking on Russia has too often been coloured by ideological sentiment. While ideology has been important for both the Soviet Union and post-Soviet Russia, Moscow's international policies have been driven more by national interest and geopolitics." | | Putin's India visit was aimed at repairing damage to bilateral ties | | In her column for The Diplomat titled 'Why Did Russian President Putin Visit India?', Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director, Centre for Security, Strategy & Technology at ORF, writes that the "Russian president appears to have wanted to establish that Moscow can handle the India and China relationships independently of each other. Putin's visit is seen as an effort to repair the damage done to the relationship over the last couple of years, as Russia and India drifted apart." | | AUKUS takes away a bit of the aura from Quad | | Abhijit Singh, head of Maritime Policy Initiative at the ORF, writes for the Australia-based think tank Lowy Institute that "something about AUKUS suggests that it could over the long term detract from the value and usefulness of the Quad. Since its revival in 2017, the Quad has displayed a certain mystique – the ability, on the one hand, to be a driver of growth and development, and on the other to pose a strategic counter to China. AUKUS, ruefully, has taken some of that aura away." | | India's efforts on Afghanistan beset by three failures | | Suhasini Haidar writes in The Hindu that three failures mark the Narendra Modi government's efforts on Afghanistan thus far: "The first is a failure to recognise where U.S. policy was leading, especially after it signed the Doha Agreement of February 2020… The second is the failure to secure its friends in Afghanistan… and the third is a failure to sow the seeds today for a better future for Afghanistan tomorrow, one which has a strong Indian presence in it." | | Chinese youth have very little interest in democracy | | Zhou Xin, a Hong Kong-based journalist, argues in Nikkei Asia that young Chinese have little interest in democracy. Zhou writes, "Chinese youngsters … have witnessed firsthand their country's economic surge and have no problem trusting their government's ability to score economic goals. And nothing has thus far been able to cause this conviction to waver, including democracy. The bedrock of Western democratic politics lies in giving people a direct say in choosing their leaders. But could such a system bring the economic and social stability that China's young people crave and have come to take for granted, or safeguard benefits already gained?" | | Hong Kong has been fully stripped of its democratic freedom | | Timothy McLaughlin argues in The Atlantic that with "reengineered election rules, Hong Kong's already limited democratic freedoms have been almost entirely stripped away… Not that there would have been many candidates to contest the positions even if the rules hadn't changed; nearly every notable prodemocracy figure has been jailed, fled abroad, or retreated from public life after the passage of a draconian national-security law last year, another facet of a sweeping and unrelenting crackdown on Hong Kong's liberties. What is left is hegemonic authoritarianism." | | Containment strategy won Cold War, it may work against China too | | Hal Brands, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argues in Wall Street Journal that the US must use a containment strategy against China. He writes, "competition is a geopolitical reality, not a strategic objective. The objective should be stopping China from overturning the balance of power and building a future in which authoritarianism is dominant. Put another way, the US must contain China's ability to reshape the international order produced by the US victory in the Cold War." | | Angela Merkel leaves behind a long list of unresolved issues for Germany | | Wolfgang Streeck, economic sociologist, writes in Unherd that former chancellor Angela Merkel leaves behind a long list unresolved problems for Germany. These include "the relationship of the EU and its member states to the two hostile global superpowers, the United States and China, the European and especially the German relationship to Russia, the tension between German Atlanticism and French Europeanism, asylum and immigration policies, national and European, among others." | | How China is manipulating global social media | | Muyi Xiao, Paul Mozur and Gray Beltran have done an assessment in New York Times of how China manipulates Facebook and Twitter. They find that "China's government has unleashed a global online campaign burnish its image and undercut accusations of human rights abuses. Much of the effort takes place in the shadows, behind the guise of bot networks that generate automatic posts and hard-to-trace online personas." | | PODCAST WATCH | | The significance of staging Winter Olympics for Chinese Communist Party | | In this episode of China Global podcast, host Bonnie Glaser, director, Asia Program, German Marshall Fund, talks to Susan Brownell, professor of anthropology at the University of Missouri, on the upcoming er Olympics in 2022 and the role of sports in China and what the Olympics means to the Chinese people and to the Chinese Communist Party. | | | | Copyright © 2021.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
