Cinema News

Who’s surging, stalling after early prizes

December 8, 2025 | View in browser

By Glenn Whipp

Columnist

So movies will still be released in theaters ... but the theatrical windows will "evolve to be much more consumer-friendly."

C'mon, Sarandos. I need a reason to get out of the house when the year ends and these holiday pop-up bars go away.

I'm Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope newsletter, pouring a Christmas margarita and looking at how the early awards season lists are shaking (and stirring) this year's contenders.

The last few days have brought a bevy of lists — top 10s from critics, slates from the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review and top-tier picks from the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and the New York Film Critics Circle.

There's a lot to sift through. And though it's early, new information has come to light (man), lifting some movies and performances and stalling the momentum of others.

Let's take a look:

UP: 'One Battle After Another'

"I didn't expect this," Paul Thomas Anderson said after his film won best feature at the Gotham Awards. That may well be the last time he can express surprise that his acclaimed action-thriller wins something this awards season.

"One Battle" showed up on AFI's Top 10 list and was the top film from whoever it is that votes for the National Board of Review.
The latter group went all in for "One Battle," bestowing honors for Anderson's direction and actors Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio and Benicio Del Toro. The New York and L.A. critics showered love on the film too: Both gave their top prize to "One Battle," with the former naming Del Toro best supporting actor and the latter giving best director to Paul Thomas Anderson and best supporting performance to Teyana Taylor.

I called this the movie to beat in mid-September. I just didn't think the race would be all but over before the new year.

DOWN: 'A House of Dynamite'

To be transparent, I also thought that Kathryn Bigelow's cautionary thriller would be picking up plaudits too. But after winning strong reviews at its Venice Film Festival premiere, the movie faced pushback for its repetitive narrative structure and has found few champions. When the National Board of Review puts four Netflix movies in its Top 10 (did they even leave the house this year?) and you're not on the list, you're in trouble.

UP: 'Train Dreams'

You know what Netflix movie was on the NBR list? And the AFI list? And earned four nominations — feature, director, lead performance and cinematography — from the Film Independent Spirit Awards? That would be "Train Dreams," Clint Bentley's haunting adaptation of the Denis Johnson novella about an ordinary man (played with quiet grace by Joel Edgerton) puzzling through loss, guilt and the magnificent beauty of this natural world.

"Train Dreams," which also nabbed the cinematography prize from the L.A. film critics on Sunday, has slowly emerged as this year's slow-burn, word-of-mouth favorite — an immersive, almost hypnotic experience that is building the kind of passionate following that could easily vault it into a place among the best picture nominees. And don't count out Edgerton either, for a minimalist turn that draws you in.

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DOWN: Cynthia Erivo, 'Wicked: For Good'

The Critics Choice Awards have loads of categories and stuff them full of nominees. So even though you pay little heed to what this group thinks, the omission of a leading contender feels like it means something. The reviews for the "Wicked" sequel weren't particularly good, and even those critics who liked it made note that the movie belonged to Ariana Grande, a co-lead who is being campaigned, like last year, in supporting.

Erivo, meanwhile, faces tougher competition, vying for lead. Being nominated for playing the same character in consecutive years is a tall order. It might take a powerful spell to make it happen.

UP: Rose Byrne, 'If I Had Legs I'd Kick You'

Reviewing Byrne's movie when it opened in October, I wrote that the movie "aims to put you inside the head of a mother in crisis, and for the next couple of hours it does so in such an exhausting, claustrophobic, anxiety-inducing manner that, as you take a journey on this cinematic endurance test, you feel many things: grudging admiration, abject terror and, finally, sweet relief when the closing credits roll."

So, yes, I had some doubts about whether Oscar voters would be willing to go on that journey with Byrne and not stop the film 10 minutes in when they watched it on the academy's viewing portal. But I've spoken to a handful of members who told me that it plays well at home and they most definitely will be voting for Byrne, a well-liked actor with a long list of credits and, now, the role of a lifetime. Others have already declared their love: Byrne won lead actress honors from the New York and L.A. critics and the National Board of Review.