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Gaza peace plan: Now for the details

October 09, 2025 | View in browser

By Michael Wilner

Washington Bureau Chief

A peace plan for Gaza touted by President Trump as a historic breakthrough is facing its first test this week after Israel and Hamas agreed in principle to an initial list of terms that could end the war.

The 20-point American plan reflects an administration losing patience with Israel, while also leveraging its relationships with Arab partners to finally pressure Hamas into a deal that would release the Israeli hostages still in its custody two years since the Oct. 7 attack.

On Wednesday evening, Trump said both parties had agreed to the first phase of his plan, securing the hostage release in exchange for a limited Israeli troop withdrawal.

"I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan," Trump wrote on social media. "This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace."

The president's push comes amid an unexpected and growing divide within the Republican base over support for Israel — once seen as a bedrock of the alliance — and as Trump presents himself as a global peacemaker, ahead of the announcement of this year's Nobel Peace Prize on Friday.

The president is expected to travel to the region over the weekend to secure the deal.

"All Parties will be treated fairly!" Trump wrote. "BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!"

Who controls Hamas?

One former senior Biden administration official who worked on the Gaza crisis told The Times that Trump's 20-point plan "is credible," if not fully baked, and that Trump's position of influence over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may give the proposal "a real chance of success."

Devastated after two years of war, Hamas had seen its continued holding of the hostages as its only remaining leverage to ensure later stages of a peace agreement are implemented by the Israelis. Trump's plan demands an immediate release of all of the hostages, both dead and alive, in an initial phase, preceding reconstruction of the Strip that removes Hamas from power.

An opening emerged for progress in the talks after Israel conducted an extraordinary strike on a Hamas target in Doha, shaking the confidence of the Qatari government, a key U.S. ally. While Doha has hosted Hamas' political leadership for years, Qatar's leadership thought their relationship with Washington would protect them from Israeli violations of its territory.

"A lot of this stems from the Israeli attack on Hamas in Doha," said Elliott Abrams, a veteran diplomat from the Reagan, George W. Bush and first Trump administrations. "The Qataris panicked, and went to Trump to ask for defense and assurance that Israel would never do that again. And I think he had a price: to deliver Hamas."

"Can they deliver Hamas? They can deliver the guys in Doha," Abrams continued. "They can threaten them with expulsion. They can tell them that they're living in fancy hotels, but they can be Palestinian refugees tomorrow morning. But the relationship between those people and the leadership on the ground is very unclear."

U.S. officials believe it is the Egyptians, more so than the Qataris, with intelligence, sourcing and leverage on the ground in the Gaza Strip that can bring Hamas' chain of command in compliance with a settlement. But whether Egyptian leadership is willing to exert its leverage is unclear. An unusual Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, in violation of the Camp David Accords that have secured Israel's peace with Egypt since 1979, is causing widespread concern in diplomatic circles over Cairo's intentions.

Talks over Trump's plan have moved from Doha to Cairo.

"If talks in Cairo focus solely on the first phase of the peace plan — the release of hostages and prisoners, the first Israeli withdrawal in Gaza and the flood of humanitarian goods — there is a good chance of success," said Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute. "But if the talks range into subsequent phases of the plan, including Hamas disarmament and deployment of third-country troops to Gaza, it will likely get bogged down as has been the case before."

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Pressure on Israel

Trump's diplomatic push has also exposed growing concern within his administration over the damage Israel's continued military campaign is inflicting on its global reputation — and on its support within the United States.

Over the weekend, speaking with an Israeli news outlet, Trump said that Netanyahu had "gone too far in Gaza, and Israel has lost a lot of support in the world." It came amid reports that Trump had scolded Netanyahu over his initial reaction to Hamas' willingness to negotiate over the plan.

"Whether you believe it was justified or not, right or not, you cannot ignore the impact that this has had on Israel's global standing," Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CBS News on Sunday.

Much of the world supports Trump's plan, which would see a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee oversee governance in the strip, and an international coalition funding the reconstruction of its economy and infrastructure. Palestinians would not be forced to leave the territory.

The proposal comes amid signs that Israel is rapidly losing support within the United States, with new polls showing 59% of Americans disapprove of its actions. A Pew poll showed that 55% of Republicans said they view Israel favorably — but that a growing generational divide, across party lines, risks eroding support for Israel over time.

"I think it's gone on too long," Megyn Kelly, a conservative commentator and former Fox News host, said last week on the Fifth Column Podcast. "I know what Hamas does, trust me. And I've been covering it. But that doesn't mean that the devastation and destruction can go on forever."

Other prominent figures on the right, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and commentators Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, have become more vocal criticizing Israel in recent months.

"Israel's now taken out Hezbollah, it's decimated Hamas, it had a war with Iran that we almost got dragged into," Kelly added. "It's time to wrap it up in this American's view. I am entitled to that opinion. And I will not be shamed out of it by being called an antisemite."

Netanyahu and his closest allies, including Ron Dermer, Israel's minister of strategic affairs and a former ambassador to Washington, have long believed that Israel is best served relying more on deep ties to the American right than on Jewish Americans overall or on balanced bipartisanship. Increased opposition to the war among MAGA Republicans may force Netanyahu's team to expedite its end.

Whether discontent on the right is driving Trump to push for a peace deal is unclear. But his personal involvement could prove key to success, regardless of his motives, Satloff said.

"The key new factor that is giving a chance to phase one is President Trump's intense personal interest in freeing the hostages and the desire of key Arab players not to disappoint him," Satloff said. "But we shouldn't exaggerate the importance of even this critical factor — the entire house of cards can still collapse."