| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Another super eventful week and this edition comes to you a little late than the usual time. Still, it has enough to hold your attention. We kick off with Xi's much hyped visit to Moscow and a less-hyped (but no less consequential) launching of a pipeline project between India and Bangladesh (pics of two PMs above). We also explain why France is burning, what's happening in Sri Lanka and why Russia has said it won't be able to deliver the next set of S400 missiles to India, for now. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Xi meets Putin in Moscow, reinforces ties as both nations vow to push back against American dominance | | Xi Jinping's trip to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin continues to make headlines in western media all through the week, and going by the statements issued by the Pentagon and the US Department of State, the United States is betraying its worry and nervousness over the emerging axis. According to US secretary of state Antony Blinken, the visit to Moscow by China's president days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, amounts to Beijing providing "diplomatic cover for Russia to continue to commit" war crimes. President Xi Jinping's visit "suggests that China feels no responsibility to hold the president accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine," said Blinken, according to a report in New York Times. US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday that "Xi's visit to Putin and remaining there for a couple of days I think sends a very troubling message, a message of support." The West's reading of Xi's trip to Moscow, where the Russian president pampered Xi and turned on the charm has been generally sombre. New York Times said, "talk of Ukraine was overshadowed by Mr. Xi's vow of ironclad solidarity with Russia as a political, diplomatic, economic and military partner: two superpowers aligned in countering American dominance and a Western-led world order. The summit showed Mr. Xi's intention to entrench Beijing's tilt toward Moscow against what he recently called an effort by the United States at the full-fledged 'containment' of China." Washington Post points out that while leaving Moscow, Xi clasped Putin's hands and said, "This is part of great changes unseen in a century," Xi said. A pet phrase of his, the line is used at home to market his foreign policy strategy to counter pressure from the West, and grasping Putin's hand, he added a second part: "Let's push it forward together." Both leaders issued a detailed, nine point joint statement but the Chinese version is way more voluminous than the truncated English version. NPR has some key takeaways of the visit while Bloomberg reports of Putin and Xi's long-term deal to continue developing so-called fast-neutron reactors "that has Pentagon planners on edge because of its potential to upset the global balance of nuclear weapons." Financial Times points out that though Xi backed Putin on Ukraine, he held up on Russia's proposed gas pipeline Power of Siberia 2 to Beijing, something that Putin desperately wants. | | Modi, Hasina launch 125km 'India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline' for Dhaka's fuel security | | Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina on Saturday inaugurated the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, a cross-border energy pipeline, via video conferencing. "This is the first cross-border energy pipeline between India and Bangladesh, built at an estimated cost of Rs 377 crore, of which the Bangladesh portion of the pipeline was built at a cost of approximately Rs 285 crore, which has been borne by the Govt of India under grant assistance," read a media statement from the prime minister's office. "Welcoming the initiative, Hasina thanked Modi and Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma but skipped any mention of West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee. The omission is being interpreted as a sign of Bangladesh's unhappiness regarding the planned construction of hydel power projects in West Bengal that may divert the waters of the Teesta river, and which have been in the middle of a stalled negotiation for more than a decade," observes The Hindu. Calling India a "true friend" of Bangladesh, Hasina said that Bangladesh's first cross-border oil pipeline with India will play a vital role in ensuring fuel security. "When many countries across the world are on the verge of a fuel crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war, at that time this pipeline will play a vital role in ensuring the fuel security of our people," she said, according to a report in Deccan Herald. | | Macron stays firm as France is gripped by violence and protests over president's pension 'reform' | | France is burning. Erupting in rage. "Police fired tear gas and fought with violent black-clad anarchists in Paris and across France on Thursday as hundreds of thousands of protesters marched against President Emmanuel Macron's plan to raise the pension age", reports Reuters. "The ninth day of nationwide protests disrupted train and air travel. Teachers were among many professions to walk off the job, days after the government pushed through legislation to raise the retirement age by two years to 64. Demonstrations in central Paris were generally peaceful, but groups of 'Black Bloc' anarchists smashed shop windows, demolished street furniture and ransacked a restaurant. Clashes ensued as riot police drove back the anarchists with tear gas and stun grenades." Macros is staying firm. The French president "drew an angry response from unions and opposition parties on Wednesday when he said he would press on with plans to raise the pension age, rejecting calls for a U-turn in response to growing public anger. 'Do you think I enjoy doing this reform? No,' Macron said in a TV interview. 'But there are not a hundred ways to balance the accounts ... this reform is necessary'." Wall Street Journal adds, "Macron a week ago invoked a special provision of the French constitution to bypass Parliament and raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030, a move that triggered no-confidence votes and a wave of spontaneous protests that at times turned violent. Thursday's demonstrations were the first nationwide mobilization organized by unions since Macron's contentious maneuver, and it opened the floodgates of public frustration. Teachers, train drivers, nurses, oil-refinery staff and other workers went on strike and joined protests around the country." According to BBC, "Macron's decision to use the 49:3 clause to force through a rise in the pension age from 62 to 64 and prolong pension contributions is considered his biggest political risk since he took on the yellow-vest protesters in the first term of his presidency. But at that point he had a healthy majority in parliament, and now he leads a minority government and the retirement reform is highly unpopular." | | Sri Lanka gets first tranche of IMF bailout funds, president Ranil requests China to 'compromise' | | Sri Lanka has received the first tranche of IMF bailout funds. Al Jazeera reports that "Sri Lanka has received the first tranche of its bailout package from the IMF", quoting president Ranil Wickremesinghe's address to the Sri Lankan Parliament. "This sets the stage for Sri Lanka to have better fiscal discipline and improved governance," Wickremesinghe said on Wednesday. According to the report, "the first tranche of $330m comes after the IMF on Monday approved a $3bn rescue package for the crisis-stricken island nation. The IMF bailout is expected to catalyse additional support to the tune of $3.75bn from the likes of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other lenders. It clears the way for Sri Lanka to rework a substantial part of its $84bn worth of public debt." "The deal has been nearly a year in the making and a lifeline for the country that has billions of dollars in loans. Foreign minister Ali Sabry told the BBC the government will raise funds by restructuring state-owned enterprises and privatising the national airline. However, analysts warned Sri Lanka still faces a tough road ahead. The country's economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, rising energy prices, populist tax cuts and inflation of more than 50%," reports BBC. The Sri Lankan president has called on China and other creditors to strike a "debt deal." "Sri Lanka has committed to presenting a debt restructuring plan to creditors by end-April, giving it a little more than a month to work with legal and financial advisers. Key to this is whether local currency debt will be included in the process," says Bloomberg. | | Russia cannot deliver rest of S400 systems due to Ukraine war, IAF tells a Parliamentary panel | | After the Xi-Putin summit, the Russian president had said Moscow's ties with Beijing won't harm India's interests but it has quickly become evident how the war in Ukraine and Russia's growing dependence on China is altering the India-Russia equation. Economic Times reports, quoting the Indian Air Force (IAF) that Russia has said it would be unable to honour the military equipment and defence supply commitments with India due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to the report, the IAF "has sharply reduced its projected spending on procurement for FY24. The cut has taken place due to delays in the supply of the critical S400 air defence system and spares for the air force fleet. The air force informed a parliamentary panel that while there is no paucity of funds available from government for modernisation, it reduced the capital budget projections as 'stage-wise payment' expected to take place are unlikely to happen due to delays." The report adds that the Russians have "given it in writing that they are not able to deliver" the next set of S400 systems. "India has received three S400 squadrons, two of which have been deployed on the east and west borders. The remaining two squadrons that were to be delivered in FY24 are likely to be delayed, with no clear indication on fresh timelines. The $5.43 billion deal for five S400 squadrons was inked with Russia in 2018, with deliveries scheduled to be completed by mid-2024," says the ET report. Reuters reports that a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in New Delhi said: "We don't have information which may confirm the stated." There was no immediate response from Rosoboronexport, which is the Russian government's weapons export arm. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Xi's trip to Moscow was a 'win-win' game for China and Russia | | Xi Jinping's trip to Moscow for a meeting with Vladimir Putin was a 'win-win' game for China and Russia, I write in my column for Firstpost. | | Xi-Putin alliance even more important that US alliance network | | Professor Graham Allison of Harvard Kennedy School writes in Foreign Policy magazine that Xi and Putin's undeclared 'alliance' has become more important than United States's official alliances today. | | Xi has sway over Putin, but that isn't a leverage | | Professor Minxin Pei of Claremont McKenna College writes in Bloomberg that though Xi Jinping enjoys te upper hand over Vladimir Putin, the Chinese leader will soon discover that having sway over Putin doesn't necessarily mean having leverage over him. | | Russia's reliance on China will outlast Putin | | Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, writes in The Economist that Russia may soon become more dependent on China than it ever was on Europe. | | Kishida visit to India, Xi's trip to Moscow two elements of same churn | | Visiting Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida's ambition to elevate the Indo-Pacific partnership with India and Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow this week to consolidate the Eurasian alliance with Vladimir Putin are two elements of the unfolding geopolitical churn, argues Asia Society Policy Institute senior fellow C Raja Mohan in a column for Indian Express. | | Xi-Putin summit squeezes India's strategic space | | Mohan Kumar, former Indian ambassador and dean at OP Jindal University, writes in Indian Express while the Moscow summit reinforces Xi-Putin alliance, this could have the effect of pushing India to align itself more to the West, if only to protect its core interests vis-à-vis China. | | Time to offer Putin an offramp with China's help | | Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, writes in New York Times the West should give Putin an offramp to end the war, and China can play a useful part. | | American foreign policy has lost all flexibility | | America's unipolar status has corrupted the country's foreign policy elite. Our foreign policy is all too often an exercise in making demands and issuing threats and condemnations, writes Fareed Zakaria in Washington Post. | | US war on Iraq was based on a mistake, not a lie | | Assessing America's invasion of Iraq two decades down the line, Richard Haass, president of the US Council on Foreign Relations, writes in Project Syndicate that "critiques of the war get it wrong when they conclude that the US government cannot ever be trusted to tell the truth. Yes, the US government maintained that Iraq possessed WMDs, and my boss at the time, Secretary of State Colin Powell, made that case before the United Nations. It turned out not to be true. But governments can and do get things wrong without lying." | | US has made many mistakes in West Asia | | The United States has made many mistakes in West Asia, leading to a decline in its overall influence and, in turn, a policy recalibration by its allies, writes Stanly Johny in The Hindu. | | PODCAST | | China, Russia and chances of a new Cold War | | We recommend this edition of New York Times podcast 'The Daily', where host Sabrina Tavernise speaks to NYT's Edward Wong on Xi's Moscow visit and its implications. | | | | Copyright © 2023.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
