| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Friday marks one year of Russia's Ukraine invasion (Reuters pic above). We kick off with the anniversary of a conflict where there are no winners and no end in sight. We also track India's latest abstention from voting at UN, Putin's crucial speech to Russian Parliament, fresh earthquake in Turkey-Syria and Pakistan's unending woes. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | China presents 12-point proposal as Ukraine war rolls into one year with no end, or winner in sight | | February 24, Friday, marked one year of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, still calls it 'special military operation'. But if Putin hoped for a short and effective operation, his objective has run into fierce resistance from Ukraine, a US-led pushback from Europe and a NATO resurgence. One year on, the war drags on with no winner and no end in sight. According to Washington Post, "Ukraine on Friday marks one year since Russia launched its punishing invasion, with leaders in Kyiv defiant against Moscow's push to overpower their nation. The full-scale attack, which started in the early hours on February 24, 2022, violently ended decades of relative stability in Europe. Its ripple effects upended energy markets, increased global hunger and reinvigorated the NATO military alliance to face the Russian threat." "In a speech to the Ukrainian people Friday morning," reports New York Times, "Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky looked back on a difficult year, one of pain and resilience. "Its main result is that we endured. We were not defeated. And we will do everything to gain victory this year." The newspaper reports that though Ukrainians remain proud and committed, cynicism is gaining ground. NPR observes that "Nearly a year since Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, there are no real signs of a way out of the conflict. Neither side appears primed for an outright military victory, and progress at the negotiating table seems just as unlikely. Neither side has released figures lately, but analysts estimate that about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war so far. By comparison, Ukraine has seen some 100,000 killed or wounded in action, and 30,000 civilian deaths. Bloomberg reports that "China's foreign ministry published a 12-point position paper on Friday laying out how it thinks peace can be restored to Ukraine. It calls for "Respecting the sovereignty of all countries", "Abandoning the Cold War mentality", Ceasing hostilities", Resuming peace talks", "Resolving the humanitarian crisis", "Protecting civilians and prisoners of war", "Keeping nuclear power plants safe", "Reducing strategic risks", "Facilitating grain exports", "Stopping unilateral sanctions", "Keeping industrial and supply chains stable" and "Promoting post-conflict reconstruction." In response, US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said China's proposal should have ended after the first bulletpoint, which calls for "respecting the sovereignty of all countries." CNN has a graphical representation of the timeline of the war with images and video clips. | | UN approves resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine; India, China abstain from voting | | "The UN General Assembly in New York has overwhelmingly backed a resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago. It called for the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine and a halt to fighting. The motion was backed by 141 nations with 32 abstaining and seven — including Russia — voting against", reports BBC. Among those that abstained were India and China. According to Indian Express, "in the 'Explanation of Vote' after the resolution was adopted, India's Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj said that as the General Assembly marks a year of the Ukrainian conflict, it is important that we ask ourselves a few pertinent questions. 'Are we anywhere near a possible solution acceptable to both sides? Can any process that does not involve either of the two sides, ever lead to a credible and meaningful solution? Has the UN system, and particularly its principal organ, the UN Security Council, based on a 1945-world construct, not been rendered ineffective to address contemporary challenges to global peace and security?' Kamboj said." She added that "India remains steadfastly committed to multilateralism and upholds the principles of the UN Charter. We will always call for dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable way out. While we take note of the stated objective of today's Resolution, given its inherent limitations in reaching our desired goal of securing a lasting peace, we are constrained to abstain." Meanwhile, US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, who is in Bengaluru for the G20 summit, said on Thursday that the Joe Biden administration will seek to impose further sanctions on Russia that will hurt its economy, already reeling under the impact of a high budget deficit, lack of access to critical supplies and the exodus of talent and foreign investment. | | Putin blames it on West, suspends Russia's participation in major nuclear disarmament treaty | | "Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday vowed to press on with his war in Ukraine during a major speech to Russian lawmakers and military commanders. The annual state of the nation address came just days before the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of its neighbor and on the ninth anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine. In his two-hour speech, the Russian leader chided the West and announced that Moscow was suspending its participation in the New START nuclear disarmament treaty. He said Russia must stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if Washington does so," reports DW. The Russian president also blamed the West for starting the conflict, saying Western countries, led by the US, were seeking "unlimited power" in world affairs. The New START treaty envisages caps on the number of nuclear weapons and broad inspections of nuclear sites. Putin said such inspections don't make sense after the US and its allies declared the goal of dealing Russia a military defeat in Ukraine and helped the Ukrainian military mount strikes on Russian nuclear facilities, observes Associated Press. According to Washington Post, Putin did not say that Russia will completely withdraw from the treaty, which has been extended to run through February 4, 2026, but that Moscow would not allow NATO countries to inspect its nuclear arsenal. Putin's move was widely condemned by the West. "The announcement by Russia that it's suspending participation in New START is deeply unfortunate and irresponsible," US secretary of state Antony Blinken said. "We'll be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does." As the both chambers of Russian Parliament moved swiftly to suspend the treaty as directed by Putin, a top defence ministry official, Major-General Yevgeny Ilyin, told the lower house, or Duma, that Russia would continue to observe agreed restrictions on nuclear delivery systems - meaning missiles and strategic bomber planes, reports Reuters. | | Another earthquake hits Turkey, Syria as death toll from Feb 6 quake crosses 47,000 | | Survivors of the earthquake that jolted Turkey and Syria 15 days ago, killing tens of thousands of people and leaving hundreds of thousands of others homeless, dealt with more trauma and loss Tuesday after another deadly quake and aftershocks rocked the region, reports Associated Press. The news agency adds, the 6.4 magnitude earthquake that struck Monday evening had its epicenter in the Defne district of Turkey's Hatay province, which was of the area's worst affected by the Feb. 6 magnitude 7.8 quake. Turkey's disaster management authority, AFAD, said the new quake killed six people and injured 294 others, including 18 who were in critical condition. In Syria, a woman and a girl died as a result of panic during the earthquake in the provinces of Hama and Tartus, pro-government media said. Meanwhile, in another report, AP said quoting Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu that the number of fatalities in Turkey from the February 6 earthquake has risen to 43,556. The combined death toll in Turkey and Syria now stands at 47,244. Meanwhile, Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan said 865,000 people are living in tents and 23,500 in containers, while 376,000 are in student dormitories and public guesthouses outside the earthquake zone. Erdogan's government has faced criticism about what many Turks said was a slow response, and over construction policies that meant thousands of apartment buildings collapsed, trapping victims under rubble. "It is our duty to hold the wrongdoers accountable before the law," Erdogan said in the southern province of Osmaniye, reports Reuters. Erdogan has promised a swift reconstruction effort, although experts say it could be a recipe for another disaster if safety steps are sacrificed in the race to rebuild. | | Imran gets protective bail even as Pakistan PM Sharif declares 15% govt expenses cut in austerity drive | | Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan was granted protective bail by a court in the eastern city of Lahore on Monday, providing him respite from arrest for two weeks in a case that involves charges under the country's anti-terrorism laws. Khan has had a number of cases registered against him since a parliamentary vote ousted him from power last year. The cases range from gathering illegal funds for his political party to inciting violence against state officials, according to a Reuters report. Pakistan's economy, meanwhile, continues to be in doldrums. Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif has asked his ministers and advisers to fly economy class, forgo luxury cars and their salaries as part of an austerity drive that will save the government 200 billion rupees ($766 million) a year, another Reuters reports says. The belt tightening comes as Islamabad — which is facing a balance of payment crisis — thrashes out a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure funds worth $1 billion which have been pending since late last year over policy issues. Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have fallen below a three-week import cover and the expenditure cuts announced on Wednesday are part of an effort to stave off an economic meltdown. "These austerity measures will save us 200 billion rupees annually," Sharif told a news conference in Islamabad. Bloomberg quotes Maleeha Lodhi, who twice served as Pakistan's ambassador to the US, as saying many of the country's issues are of its own making. "The chickens have come home to roost," she said. "Decades of governments living beyond their means" have caught up. "Privileged elites have overlooked the public interest." The report adds, "For years, Pakistan's economic problems have followed a familiar pattern. A dependence on imports and a low inflow of dollars has triggered repeated balance of payment crises. The country has also taken on piles of debt that didn't generate foreign exchange, using Chinese financing, in particular, to build things like power plants that have failed to boost sluggish export numbers." | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Don't bet against India, says CEA Anantha Nageswaran | | In their column for Foreign Affairs, V. Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser to the government of India, and Gurvinder Kaur, an officer of the Indian Economic Service, advise investors not to bet against India. They write, "for an unbiased view of India's potential, investors should experience firsthand what promises to be a remarkable economic and social transformation of the country over the next 25 years." | | India needs more resources to achieve Vishwa guru ambitions | | Constantino Xavier and Riya Sinha of Centre for Social and Economic Progress, New Delhi, write in Times of India that India wants to become a more front-footed "leading power." But this vishwa guru ambition will remain a dream unless India endows its foreign policy with harder capabilities, resources and expertise to cooperate with partners and compete with foes. | | Europe's centrality in global politics creates resentment | | Ivan Krastev writes in Financial Times that while indifference to Putin's aggression in Ukraine has left western analysts flummoxed, by ignoring war in Ukraine, many outside the west, either consciously or unconsciously, question Europe's centrality in global politics. | | China's Russia embrace is mostly for show | | China's embrace of Russia is mostly for show, argues Raffaello Pantucci of S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, in his column for Nikkei Asia. | | NATO has no business to meddle in Indo-Pacific region | | Quinn Marschik, a contributing fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank, writes in Nikkei Asia that NATO has no business or mandate in the Indo-Pacific region. It should stay away from creating unnecessary tensions over ideology, stop assuming authoritarian rule in China makes a war of aggression inevitable and avoid inflaming cross-strait tensions. | | China slapped away America's hand in Munich | | In Munich, China slapped away America's outstretched hand, argues Josh Rogin, a columnist in Washington Post. | | US efforts in Ukraine reflect a good return on investment | | As the Ukraine war enters its second year, US efforts mark a good return on investment from the point of view of national security. But over the next year, further risks abound, writes Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director, ORF America, in Hindustan Times. | | India's HADR efforts in Turkey was more than smart diplomacy | | India's HADR efforts in quake-hit Turkey and Syria wasn't just smart diplomacy, it reflected India's inevitable rise as a great power with a difference, Sreemoy Talukdar writes in Firstpost. | | India balances ties with Russia with national interest | | One year into the Ukraine war, India has effectively shaped its foreign policy to not only secure national interests but also ensure inclusive regional and global development, writes Jagannath Panda of the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), Sweden. | | Jimmy Carter was wronged by history | | In his column for Financial Times, Edward Luce argues that former US president Jimmy Carter was wronged by history. The moral of Carter's story is that virtue must be its own reward. History is a biased judge. | | PODCAST | | Jaishankar unplugged | | We recommend this edition of ANI Podcast with Smriti Prakash, where the host speaks to India's external affairs minister Dr S Jaishankar on a range of issues, including India-China relations. | | | | Copyright © 2023.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
