| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Welcome to Firstpost global brief. India has become the hotbed of diplomatic activity with Russian FM Lavrov landing in New Delhi on a day a clutch of high-profile western leaders and officials were still making their case (pic above of EAM Jaishankar in meeting with visiting British foreign secretary Liz Truss). Even as we track these developments, however, we also cast our eye on India's neighbourhood where Pakistan and Sri Lanka have plunged into crises. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | US deputy NSA warns India of 'consequences' as western diplomats make a beeline to visit New Delhi | | India is in the eye of a diplomatic storm as the West has unleashed a blitzkrieg of ambassadorial visits to court New Delhi or mould its stance of neutrality on Ukraine war, depending on how you look at it. These visits range from high-profile, headline grabbing ones to low-key trips that hardly generated any media attention, but taken together, they point to an extraordinary campaign by the US-led West to put pressure on India over a war that has tested New Delhi's diplomatic agility. There was German NSA Jens Plötner who arrived on Wednesday for a 12 hour visit to meet his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval to "learn more" about India's position, and also met external affairs minister S Jaishankar and foreign secretary Harsh Shringla. Plötner was followed by Dutch NSA Geoffrey Van Leeuwen who met Doval on Thursday "and discussed a wide range of bilateral issues as well as global and recent geopolitical developments in their respective regions including the situation in Ukraine." Van Leeuwen was followed by British foreign secretary Liz Truss, whose visit on Thursday was preceded by a press release from British embassy that openly declared that Truss's aim would be to pressurize India to take a harder stance on Russia. Truss met EAM Jaishankar and stuck to her task, but she also received a pushback from India. Jaishankar pointed out that "when oil prices go up, I think it's natural for countries to go out into the market and look for what are good deals for their people," and added that criticism of India looked "almost like a campaign" as the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas were in Europe and that it had increased its purchases by 15 per cent compared to the month prior. Truss acknowledged that Europe had "prioritised cheap gas over long-term security but sought more time because such dependence on energy or technology takes time to address." The biggest headlines, though, were created by the visiting US deputy NSA Daleep Singh on Thursday. Hour before Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov's touching down in India, Singh, whose two-day visit included meetings with Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal and FS Shringla, warned India not to enhance ties with Moscow and threatened of "consequences" should any country, including India, "conducts local currency transactions through Russia's central bank or constructs a payment mechanism that subverts or circumvents the United States' sanctions against Russia," reports The Hindu. Singh, touted to the "sanctions king" and the key figure in Biden administration behind the sanctioning of Russia, told reporters in India that "we are very keen for all countries, especially our allies and partners, not to create mechanisms that prop up the rouble and that attempt to undermine the dollar-based financial system." | | Russian FM Lavrov lands in India as Moscow offers cheap oil and rupee-ruble payment option | | Amid the diplomatic tug of war, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov landed in New Delhi on Thursday for a two-day official visit. He will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar on Friday. Ironically, Lavrov arrived even as US deputy NSA Daleep Singh and UK foreign secretary Liz Truss were in India. Lavrov concluded his two-day visit to China on Wednesday where he attended meetings on the Afghanistan turmoil along with representatives from Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, according to reports. Bloomberg reports that "both sides are likely to discuss the sale of Russian crude to India and the possibility of a rupee-ruble denominated payment method that could work outside the SWIFT messaging system." Bloomberg also reported that India "is considering a proposal from Russia to use a system developed by the Russian central bank for bilateral payments" and the "plan involves rupee-ruble-denominated payments using Russia's messaging system SPFS." The report says "no final decision has been taken." The report further says "Russia also wants India to link its Unified Payments Interface with their MIR payments system for seamless use of cards issued by Indian and Russian banks." Russia is offering India steep discounts on its flagship Urals grade to India at discounts of as much as $35 a barrel on prices before the war to lure India. | | Faced with impending ouster, Imran accuses US of trying to topple him, refuses to resign | | From India to the neighbourhood where Pakistan PM Imran Khan's fate is hanging by a thread. Imran's ruling PTI coalition effectively became a minority government on Wednesday when one of the key allies Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) quit and joined ranks with the Opposition. As rival parties claimed that a resignation is the only honourable exit for the beleaguered prime minister, a defiant Imran refused to resign ahead of the looming vote on no-confidence motion, saying that he will play till the last ball. In his address to the nation on Thursday, Imran said: "Somebody asked me to resign. I will resign? I have played cricket for 20 years, and I play till the last ball. I have never given up in my life… You will see that I will emerge stronger after the vote (on no-confidence), no matter what the result of the vote is." In the extraordinary speech, Imran blamed the no-trust move against him on a "foreign conspiracy" allegedly hatched due to his government's "independent foreign policy" and in an apparent slip of the tongue blamed United States for attempting to oust him from power through a "threatening memo" before correcting himself. Imran's party "needs 172 votes in the lower house of 342 to foil the Opposition's bid to topple him. The Opposition has claimed that it has the support of 175 lawmakers and the Prime Minister should immediately resign. If he is unable to prove his majority in Sunday's vote, he will be the first Prime Minister in the country to be ousted through a no-confidence motion." Imran's accusation against the US hinges on a diplomatic cable sent by Pakistan's then ambassador to the US Asad Majeed on the basis of his meeting with Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, a charge that the US has subsequently denied. | | Crisis-hit Sri Lanka plunges into darkness as protestors demand resignation of President Gotabaya | | Sri Lanka is facing its worst-ever economic crisis and news every day is grimmer than the day before. The island nation has been facing a seven-hour power outage since the beginning of the month. That turned to a nationwide 10-hour daily power cut due to shortage of hydro-electricity triggered by non-availability of fuel on Wednesday followed by a further worsening of the crisis on Thursday when diesel was no longer on sale across the country, plunging 22 million people in a blackout. According to The Hindu, lengthy power cuts have forced the Colombo Stock Exchange to limit its trading by half to two hours, hit mobile phone base stations and several state-run hospitals have stopped surgeries as they have run out of essential life-saving medicines. The rising costs, shortages of essentials and long power cuts triggered a massive protest against the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government on Thursday. As The Hindu reports, "hundreds of angry protestors gathered outside President Rajapaksa's residence in Colombo late on Thursday night, after the island experienced a 13-hour-long power cut amid Sri Lanka's worsening economic meltdown. Riot police were swiftly deployed to the spot. They used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowd, but those agitating endured at the spot, chanting 'Gota go home' in Sinhala." Reuters reports that police have imposed an overnight curfew in several parts of Colombo early on Friday as protesters dismantled a wall and hurled bricks at police, before setting a bus alight on a road leading to Gotabaya's residence. The crisis-hit nation has sought an additional credit line of $1.5 billion from India to import essentials even as Lanka IOC, the subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation in Sri Lanka, has said it will supply 6,000 MT of fuel to the island nation. | | Jaishankar visit to Sri Lanka and Maldives strengthens ties, secures India's interests | | The turmoil in Sri Lanka has also intensified geopolitical competition between China and India. As analysts have noted, the situation affords India an opportunity to wean the country away from Beijing's influence. But India has been careful with its messaging. External affairs minister S Jaishankar, who wrapped up his two-day visit to the island nation on Wednesday, told reporters in Colombo before heading home that "we are approaching it [Sri Lankan crisis] like a sensible, good neighbour, keeping politics out of it," pointing to the $400 million RBI currency swap, the $500 million loan deferment, $500 million credit line for fuel, and the more recent billion-dollar credit line that New Delhi has extended or facilitated this year. "I can't remember the last time we stepped up like this for any country. We have helped countries during natural disasters or the pandemic. But this is different," he said, admitting Sri Lanka's "needs are more," according to a report in The Hindu. During Jaishankar's visit, India and Sri Lanka have signed six agreements to boost bilateral cooperation in diverse sectors like technology, fisheries and hybrid power projects. Under the agreements, India will also provide grant assistance for the implementation of Sri Lanka's Unique Digital Identity programme, implement hybrid power projects in three Islands off Jaffna and also cooperate in development of fisheries harbours, according to reports. Before heading to Sri Lanka, Jaishankar was on a two-day visit to the Maldives from March 28 when he met his counterpart Abdulla Shahid and discussed a wide range of issues from tourism to regional and maritime security. Jaishankar "inaugurated the National College of Policing and Law Enforcement and also formally handed over a coastal radar system with 10 radar stations which were built with a US$15.8 million Indian grant. Analysts said that India was trying to broaden its relationship with the Maldives by collaborating in different areas including eco-tourism," reports The Straits Times. Jaishankar along with Maldivian foreign minister Abdulla Shahid signed pacts on health and education besides discussing regional security and maritime safety issues at the Addu City. Shahid said that the Maldives welcomes India's "Neighbourhood First Policy" under which the island nation has gained immense socio-economic benefits and that they, too, remain committed to their "India First Policy". His comments came at a time when the Opposition party in Maldives, led by former President Abdulla Yameen, had spearheaded an anti-India campaign, reports Indian Express. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | A good foreign policy must work for all citizens: Jaishankar | | In his inaugural St. Stephen's Distinguished Alumni Lecture, external affairs minister S Jaishankar lays down the building blocks of India's grand strategy. The speech must be read in full, where the minister explains the six broad objectives that were spelt out to the policy-makers and implementers as part of a comprehensive review of India's foreign policy since 2014, the onset of the Narendra Modi government. | | India, UK must work together to uphold global security: Truss | | British foreign secretary Liz Truss, who arrived in New Delhi on Thursday for a meeting with EAM Jaishankar, told Suhasini Haidar of The Hindu in an interview that Russia's invasion of Ukraine "hasn't just shattered European security. It's also put question marks over global security. Because if a country or if Putin can invade a sovereign nation, and undermine their territorial integrity, what message does that send to other aggressors around the world. So this is why it's so important that the UK and India work more closely together." | | To single out India when US allies are playing neutral is doublespeak | | Seema Sirohi writes in Economic Times that "the more western commentators push India, the more they convince Indians of the validity of neutrality, including those who felt India should have condemned Russia's invasion. To single out India for special opprobrium when key US allies are playing neutral is doublespeak." | | War has given India a chance to leverage its position | | C Raja Mohan of Asia Society Policy Institute argues in Foreign Policy magazine that "far from being in an unenviable bind, New Delhi now looks well placed to leverage its position in the middle for its own benefit in the short and long term. From Russia, India is getting discounted oil, fertilizer, and other commodities… From China, India is looking to extract an easing of the Sino-Indian military confrontation in the Himalayas. With the United States and other Western partners, India is looking to modernize its defense industrial base and reduce its dependence on Russian military supplies." | | What if Putin's real targets were energy riches of Ukraine's east? | | Bret Stephens writes in New York Times that several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he's no longer in control of events. But, he argues, "suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine's east, which contain Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway's)… Then Putin doesn't seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be." | | Putin has shown what the alternative to liberalism is | | Political scientist Francis Fukuyama tells Freddie Sayers of Unherd in an interview that "with this invasion of another democratic country, Putin has created a certain amount of moral clarity. The biggest advantage of a liberal state is the fact that it's not authoritarian. It's not a dictatorship; it doesn't kill people; it doesn't invade neighbours. Putin's demonstrated what the alternative to liberalism is." | | Russians are getting further united behind Putin | | Danil Bochkov, fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow, writes in Nikkei Asia that Russian president Vladimir Putin's "approval rate has risen 10% since December, almost touching 80%, his highest approval rating since 2014… The continuous stream of sanctions and Western leaders' calls for the removal of the Russian president will most likely serve to further unite people behind Putin." | | India-Australia trade deal a watershed moment in bilateral ties | | Professor Amitabh Mattoo writes in Indian Express that the India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (INDAUS ECTA), due to be signed on Saturday, "represents a watershed moment in bilateral relations, but also a significant turning point for India's foreign policy — both in terms of geo-strategy as well as geo-economics. India and Australia today represent a partnership with a near complete convergence of interests and values." | | Imran is going down and it'll take more than a miracle to save him | | ORF senior fellow Sushant Sareen writes in News18 that "the writing on the wall is clear: Imran Khan is going down and it will take more than a miracle to save him. Former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani had once said that he didn't want to become Prime Minister because Pakistan's sordid history is that people go straight from PM House to Adiala Jail. It will be interesting to see if Imran Khan keeps up the tradition once he is unceremoniously booted out." | | India needs a fundamental change in border policy with China | | Praveen Swami writes in The Print that "instead of obsessing over a few kilometres of strategically irrelevant territory on the LAC, it needs to define a genuinely defensible border with China, and grow the resources to hold it." | | PODCAST WATCH | | The significance of Wang Yi's India visit | | Worth listening to this episode of Carnegie India podcast where host Rudra Chaudhuri speaks to former Indian foreign secretary and China analyst Vijay Gokhale on the recent meet between Wang Yi and S Jaishankar, the significance of Wang's visit to India, particularly against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
