| TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES |
| Major crisis averted as India 'accidentally' fires missile at Pakistan; both stay calm but queries remain |
| While the world's attention remains fixed on Ukraine, a most extraordinary event occurred last week that could have triggered a war between two nuclear powers in the Indian subcontinent, but thankfully it ended with some jibes from Pakistan and major embarrassment for India. On March 9, Pakistan claimed that a "high speed flying object was picked up inside Indian territory by a defence operation centre of Pakistan airforce. From its initial course, the object suddenly manoeuvred towards Pakistan territory and violated Pakistan's airspace, ultimately falling near Mian Channu at 1850 hours, that is 6.50 pm (Pakistan time)… And when it fell, it also damaged some civilian property" but resulted in no civilian casualties or injuries. After two days of intense speculation, India's defence ministry clarified that "in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. The Government of India has taken a serious view and ordered a high-level Court of Enquiry. It is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident." The seriousness of this incident can hardly be overstated. This was the first documented case of an accidental missile launch (according to media reports it was a nuclear-capable BrahMos supersonic missile, though unarmed) from one country to another that had fought multiple wars between them, and so many things could have gone wrong. Reports say Pakistan had planned a retaliatory strike due to India's delayed clarification and Bloomberg reported that the stray missile that flew from the India's Ambala and ended up in Mian Channu in eastern Pakistan, narrowly missed dozens of civilian airplanes that were in the same skies. Pakistan reportedly failed to track the missile but demanded a joint probe. India expectedly rejected the demand but Union defence minister Rajnath Singh, in light of whirling speculations and worries over India's missile-safety protocol, told the Parliament that India attaches "the highest priority to safety and security of its weapon systems" and the SOPs for "operations, maintenance, and inspection" were being reviewed. |
| Biden calls Putin a 'war criminal' as Ukraine accuses Russians of bombing a civilian shelter in Mariupol |
| As Russian invasion of Ukraine enters fourth week, rescue workers struggled to pull survivors from the rubble in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol after a powerful bomb on Wednesday destroyed a theater serving as a makeshift shelter for hundreds of civilians. According to Ukraine's foreign ministry, Russian forces dropped the bomb trapping the people inside and the number of casualties was not yet known. Russia, however, denied the allegations and instead blamed the Azov Battalion, a far-right Ukrainian militia, of blowing up the building. CNN, quoting from a Facebook post on Thursday by former Donetsk region head Sergiy Taruta, reports that 1,300 people were in the building when it was bombed and 130 have so far been rescued and it is not yet clear whether all those who sheltered in the theater had survived. Taruta later told Ukrainian television that rescue efforts were being hindered by the complete breakdown of social services in the city and the dangers of further Russian attacks, according to CNN. New York Times, quoting western intelligence sources, claimed that Russian forces were making minimal movement toward capturing additional Ukrainian cities, although they were broadening attacks on civilians. US president Joe Biden called Russian president Vladimir Putin a "war criminal" even as the US announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine to fight Russia, with the new package including drones, anti-armour and anti-aircraft systems. Kremlin said Biden's comments were "unforgiveable" while Putin, in a televised address on Wednesday, lashed out against whom he called "traitors and scum" at home who helped the West, and said the Russian people would spit them out like gnats. He said the West was trying to divide Russia and provoke civil confrontation with the help of its "fifth column" with "one aim — the destruction of Russia", adding that Russia would repel such efforts. |
| Spotlight on India for buying cheap oil from Russia even as Europe continues to guzzle Russian gas |
| Twice within the space of two days, India stressed on diplomacy and dialogue as the "only way" out of Ukraine crisis. First, external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Tuesday delivered a suo motu statement in the Indian Parliament where he said India expresses "deep concern at the worsening situation" and calls for "immediate cessation of violence and end to all hostilities," and stressed "that there is no other choice but the path of diplomacy and dialogue." On Thursday, external affairs ministry spokesperson during the weekly briefing reiterated the same message, while adding that Operation Ganga, the evacuation effort in Ukraine, is still not over and about 15-20 Indian students in Kherson are yet to be evacuated while some students did not want to return. India has also been in the news this week in western media due to its decision to buy Russian oil at a discounted price. India, which imports 80% of its energy needs, sources only about 2-3% of its needs from Russia. But Moscow is offering deep discounts to large importers, and India's top oil firm Indian Oil Corporation decided to buy as much as 3 million barrels of crude for May delivery at a discount of $20-25 a barrel to dated Brent. Business Standard reports that India may take advantage of this offer further and buy 15 million barrels of crude from in 2022 from Russia that is also bearing the cost of insurance and transportation. The move has earned criticism from Joe Biden administration which said in buying Russian oil India wouldn't fall foul of US sanctions but India should "also think about where (it) wants to stand when history books are written at this moment in time. Support for the Russian leadership is support for an invasion…" Interestingly, Germany, Europe's biggest economy and one of Moscow's biggest customers, has said it won't stop buying gas, oil and coal from Russia while the European Commission has said its plan to cut dependence on Russian gas this year will be "hard to achieve." |
| Modi to engage with Japanese PM Kishida and Australian PM Morrison in back-to-back summits |
| This week kicks off a busy diplomatic schedule for India. Prime minister Narendra Modi will hold back-to-back summits with leaders of Quad nations while representatives from the US and UK is also scheduled to arrive in India. Modi's first engagement will be with Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida who arrives on Saturday for 14th India-Japan annual summit, followed by the second India-Australia virtual summit with prime minister Scott Morrison. The Hindu reports that "in addition, US undersecretary of state Victoria Nuland is expected to visit New Delhi next week, and British foreign secretary Liz Truss will hold talks with external affairs minister S. Jaishankar during a visit on March 30–31. The visit by Truss is understood to be visiting to finalise the agenda for a possible visit by British prime minister Boris Johnson." The report adds that "Nuland is expected to be accompanied by US assistant secretary of state for south and central Asian affairs and a senior US defence ministry official." There is also intense speculation in Indian media of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visiting New Delhi later this month, but during Thursday's weekly briefing, India's foreign ministry spokesperson sounded non-committal, saying he had "no information" to share on the matter. |
| Sri Lanka gets $1 billion credit facility from India as massive economic crisis rocks island nation |
| Things are not going well in Sri Lanka, as the country is facing a massive foreign exchange crisis, hampering its ability to buy fuel and other essential goods. "Sri Lanka's usable foreign reserves are said to be less than $400 million, and it has nearly $7 billion in foreign debt obligations for this year. The dollar shortage has led to authorities struggling to pay for shiploads of fuel, cooking gas and food items docked at Colombo port. At the same time, people and vehicles were forming long lines near gas stations and cooking gas dealers for hours", according to a report in ABC News. This has sparked massive nationwide protests led by Opposition parties that are cashing in on popular discontent against the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration. The Hindu reports that "on Tuesday, tens of thousands gathered along in Colombo in a rally led by the main opposition party. Party members and supporters raised anti-government slogans, asking president Rajapaksa "to go home". An image of an angry protestor, raising a pole with two loafs of bread stuck to it, was shared widely on social media, with captions about the dire state of people who are unable to buy even essential items." Amid all this, Sri Lanka has secured a $1 billion credit line from India, "a move that will ease a foreign exchange shortage for the nation even as it inches closer to an International Monetary Fund bailout. The agreement, which includes aid for essentials like food and medicines, was signed between State Bank of India and the Sri Lankan government during finance minister Basil Rajapaksa's visit to India on Thursday," reports Bloomberg. |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK |
| India's delay in informing Pakistan of missile launch was disturbing |
| On India's 'accidental' firing of missile at Pakistan, political scientist Christopher Clary writes in War on the Rocks that "while deadly military accidents were disturbingly common during the Cold War, last week's episode may be the first inadvertent launch of a cruise or ballistic missile by one nuclear power unto the territory of another nuclear power." He adds that the other "disturbing characteristic of this episode is India's apparent lack of haste in communicating with Pakistan about the accident." |
| China is now in damage control mode |
| Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore's foreign ministry, tackles the question whether China knew about Putin's plans. He argues in Nikkei Asia that China's "adjustments of position do not suggest detailed foreknowledge of Russia's plans. Even if it was aware of Moscow's intention to invade Ukraine, Beijing was probably caught off-guard by the scale and ferocity of the Russian offensive and the international response. China is now in damage control mode." |
| Ukraine crisis shows we can't take liberal order for granted |
| Noted political scientist and Stanford senior fellow Francis Fukuyama writes in Financial Times that "the current crisis has demonstrated that we cannot take the existing liberal world order for granted. It is something for which we must constantly struggle, and which will disappear the moment we lower our guard." |
| Roots of India's posture lie deeper than just reliance on Russian arms |
| Rohan Mukherjee, assistant professor of political science at Yale-NUS College, writes in 9Dashline on India's 'nonalignment' posture. He argues that "India's unwillingness to go along with a Western multilateral initiative against Russia says less about Russia's importance to India and more about India's own place in an international order dominated by the West." |
| India's Russia policy will slowly change, but not due to US pressure |
| Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director at ORF's Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, writes in The Atlantic that "Biden administration's democracy-versus-autocracy framing has few takers in India. New Delhi's Russia policy will change, gradually, but not because of American or Western pressure. Instead, it will change as a result of the growing strategic dissonance between the two, as Russia finds itself more and more beholden to China." |
| China must cut off Putin to save itself |
| Hu Wei, Shanghai-based political scientist, writes in US-China Perception Monitor that China must shun Putin. He argues that "cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China's international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future." The original Chinese version of this column has been banned in China. |
| American bet on India as counterweight to China is faltering |
| To counter China's maritime prowess in Indo-Pacific, writes Stimson Center senior fellow Sameer Lalwani in Politico, the US needs "clarity on priorities, a sense of urgency and adaptation to India's unique political realities. India is the most consequential "global swing state" — its untapped power could decisively tilt the Indo-Pacific balance of power in either direction. But it also isn't like any other ally or partner the US has cultivated in the past." |
| Putin has given US and allies a strategic opportunity |
| Political scientists Michael Beckley of Tufts University and Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University write in Foreign Affairs magazine that "Putin's aggression has created a window of strategic opportunity for Washington and its allies. The democracies must now undertake a major multilateral rearmament program and erect firmer defenses—military and otherwise—against the coming wave of autocratic aggression." |
| China's new road between Tibet and Xinjiang a worry for India |
| Tibetologist Claude Arpi writes in Firstpost that as world focuses on Ukraine, China is busy building a new strategic road that puts India in great discomfort. |
| South Korea's new squid game |
| Tokyo-based journalist William Pesek holds forth in Nikkei Asia on South Korea's just concluded presidential elections where Yoon Suk-yeol won to become the president-elect. Pesek argues that just like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, "Yoon thus far seems more skilled at tapping into public discontent than at detailing a way out. Is Yoon picking up the saber he plans to rattle at North Korea's Kim Jong Un? Oh yes. Is Yoon looking out for angry young men who think greater equality for women is a crisis? Absolutely. But does he have an answer for South Koreans' economic angst? If so, I sure have not heard it." |
| PODCAST WATCH |
| Evan Feigenbaum on China's conflicting Ukraine posture |
| We recommend this week's Sinica Podcast, where host Kaiser Kuo chats with Evan Feigenbaum of Carnegie Endowment, on the "difficult position that Beijing now finds itself in after Putin's invasion of Ukraine — caught on the horns of a dilemma and unable to resolve conflicting commitments to, on the one hand, territorial sovereignty and, on the other, opposition to American unipolar hegemony." |
| |
