| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Welcome to Firstpost's global brief. We begin this week with the Djokovic spy thriller being staged in Australia that promises yet more twists. We also track the developments in Kazakhstan, see why China is bristling at Indian army chief's comments, understand why the US and NATO believe Russia is about to invade Ukraine and report Myanmar court's decision to pile more misery on ousted leader Suu Kyi. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | Djokovic wins epic visa battle to play in Open but Australian govt may still send him home | | The twists and turns in the Novak Djokovic saga will put any spy thriller to shame. Last week's edition of Globetrotter carried reports of the Serbian world No.1 tennis star holed up in a detention center pending an appeal before the court. In one week, the developments have taken so many twists that it nearly impossible to keep up. First came the news on Monday that Djokovic has won a "stunning victory over the Australian government, overturning the cancellation of his visa and ending five days of detention." A judge ordered that the decision to cancel Djokovic's visa by the Scott Morrison government over his Covid-19 vaccination status "be quashed", the unvaccinated tennis superstar "be released immediately and forthwith from immigration detention" so that he may defend his Australian Open title. The judge also ordered the federal government to bear all his legal costs. Not to be stymied, the Australian government, for whom the court ruling was a big setback, refused to still clear Djokovic with the federal immigration minister, Alex Hawke, releasing a statement saying that "he is still 'thoroughly' considering whether to cancel Djokovic's visa, amid increasing pressure for the government to fix the mess." Meanwhile, Djokovic added to the confusion by admitting that his Australian travel declaration form contained "incorrect information" even as the government mulled over whether to deport the World No.1 tennis superstar. And amid all this drama, Covid cases in Australia began to rise and resentment over Djokovic's entry grew among the public The situation as of now is that Djokovic has been drawn up to play fellow Serb Miomir Kecmanović in next week's opening round of the Australian Open, although his participation remains in doubt as the government considers canceling his visa for a second time, reports Wall Street Journal. | | 164 dead, 8000 detained as Kazakhstan quells deadly protests, Russian troops begin departure | | After days of turbulence that resulted in a violent uprising against the government, sacking of an entire cabinet, imposition of state of emergency and arrival of a Russia-led military alliance troops to quell the unrest, Kazakhstan president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seems to have finally gotten things under control, but at a heavy price. The demonstrations began on January 2 ostensibly over rising fuel prices and soon descended into deadly riots — the worst that the Central Asian nation has seen in its 30 years of independent existence — and resulted in the death of 164 people including three children and detention of nearly 8000 protestors. Tokayev, who gave security forces orders to "shoot to kill without warning" has blamed "foreign terrorists and bandits" for orchestrating the attack and has described the deadly violence as an "attempted coup d'etat". Russian president Vladimir Putin, who quickly sent troops under the Collective Treaty Security Organization (CSTO) to quell the riots, "said Kazakhstan had been targeted by international terrorism, but provided no evidence for this claim", and vowed that "Russia would never allow revolutions in the region", reports BBC. Western media is speculating that the violence was part of an internal power struggle among the elites and "Tokayev has ruthlessly turned the tables on his mentor, Nursultan Nazarbaev, the man who ruled Kazakhstan from independence in 1991 to 2019 and was still known as Leader of the Nation" until his removal last week. One of the reasons such speculation rose was that Kazakhstan police on Saturday said they had detained Karim Masimov, the former chairman of the country's intelligence agency National Security Committee and an ally of Nazarbayev on charges of "high treason." Meanwhile, troops of the Russian-led military alliance on Thursday began the process of withdrawing from Kazakhstan, reports New York Times. | | China slams Indian army chief's comments as 14th round of talks end in stalemate | | The 14th round of senior military commander level talks that took place at Chushul-Moldo point on the Chinese side on Thursday led by Lt Gen Anindya Sengupta, the newly-appointed Commander of the Leh-based 14 Corps, failed to achieve any breakthrough in terms of disengagement from the remaining friction points such as Gogra-Hot Springs near Kongka La as well as resolving patrolling rights issues in Depsang Bulge in Daulet Beg Oldi sector and Charding Nullah Junction in Demchok, reports Hindustan Times. There was, however, a joint statement. Though the boilerplate document revealed little, its release itself may be termed as "progress" considering that the 13th round resulted in both sides blaming each other for failure and issuing separate statements. Meanwhile, in his annual press conference on Wednesday ahead of the Army Day, army chief General MM Naravane said that the situation along the LAC "is stable and under control" but India is in a position "to meet whatever is thrown at us in the future". He added that "War or conflict is always an instrument of last resort. But if resorted to, we will come out victorious". Gen Naravane also rejected the land border law passed by China and said that his force is maintaining "the highest level of operational preparedness". These comments appeared to have ruffled Chinese feathers. In a subsequent press conference in Beijing, China's foreign ministry spokesperson said: "At present, China and India are in dialogue and communication through diplomatic and military channels to ease the situation at the border. We hope that certain individual on the Indian side would refrain from making unconstructive remarks." Meanwhile, Reuters has reported, anlysing satellite imagery that China has accelerated settlement-building along its disputed border with Bhutan, with more than 200 structures, including two-storey buildings, under construction in six locations. | | US, Russia talk tough as Ukrainian crisis heads towards a test of nerves | | The Ukrainian crisis between Russia on one side and the US and NATO on the other has become a test of nerves. Both sides are waiting to see who blinks first. "The United States and NATO rejected key Russian security demands for easing tensions over Ukraine but left open Wednesday the possibility of future talks with Moscow on arms control, missile deployments and ways to prevent military incidents between Russia and the West. The decisions came at a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, the first of its kind in over two years. That Russia's delegation did not walk out of the talks and remained open to the prospect of future discussions after having its main positions rebuffed were seen as positive notes in a week of high-level meetings aimed at staving off a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine," reports Associated Press. Earlier on Monday, the US-Russia talks were inconclusive with both sides taking tough stands. While the US said Russia's insistence on guarantees precluding NATO's expansion to Ukraine and other former USSR nations and Moscow's demands of rolling back NATO's deployments in Eastern Europe were a "non starter", Kremlin said: "It will become clear in what direction and how to proceed and if it makes sense… We absolutely wouldn't accept dragging this process out endlessly." There were another round of meetings on Thursday, this time in Vienna, but little headway appeared to have been made. The third round ended with US ambassador Michael Carpenter saying that "the drumbeat of war is sounding loud, and the rhetoric has gotten rather shrill", while Russian envoy Alexander Lukashevich said "at this stage it is really disappointing" and warned of possible "catastrophic consequences" if the two sides could not agree on what Russia has termed security red lines, reports Reuters. The Times, London, reports that the US is preparing to "respond immediately to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, with financial, technological and military sanctions that would stymie Moscow's ability to continue to function normally on the international stage." | | Suu Kyi sentenced to 4 more years of prison as Myanmar military junta removes air force chief | | A Myanmar court has sentenced ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi to four more years in prison, in the latest of a series of trials, reports BBC. The Nobel Laureate was convicted for "illegal possession and import of walkie-talkies and breaking Covid-19 rules" in trials that were widely seen as unfair. She was detained since a military coup in February 2021, first convicted in December, and given a reduced jail sentence of two years in charges that she denies. The UN called again for the release of Suu Kyi and all those detained arbitrarily since last February's coup. "All political prisoners must be released, and clearly, this is not a step in the right direction," UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric was quoted, as saying by Associated Press. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Myanmar's ruling military junta has removed the head of the air force, 57-year-old Maung Maung Kyaw, from the post he had held since 2018. The air force chief was one of the most senior figures in a junta that has carried out bombing raids to try to crush resistance, adds the report. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | Escalation of Ukraine crisis will have consequences for India | | In Firstpost, we argue that any escalation of the Ukrainian crisis will hold deep consequences and present a set of toxic choices for India. | | Djokovic has become the symbol of Age of Covid | | JNU professor Amitabh Mattoo writes in Indian Express that "Novak Djokovic has become a symbol for critical concerns about global issues that we are confronted with in the Age of Covid. These include the most subaltern of anxieties about borders and sovereignty; the multiple layers of global, federal and provincial bureaucratic control; and the malleable nature of national and global public health policies rooted in what seems to be, for at least lay people, the politics of continuously elusive science-based evidence." | | World keeps letting China off the hook at its own peril | | Brahma Chellaney, professor of Strategic Studies at the Center for Policy Research, writes in Project Syndicate that "our chances of eliminating COVID-19 now appear increasingly remote. But, as we attempt to figure out how to live with the virus, we must also identify the missteps – accidental and otherwise – that led us here. And that means, first and foremost, turning a critical eye toward China." | | Ukraine crisis also offers a big opportunity | | Thomas Graham of Council on Foreign Relations and professor Rajan Menon argue in Politico that "the immediate task is to defuse the current crisis. But these talks offer the Biden administration the opportunity to do something bigger and more enduring: the creation of a pan-European security order that includes Russia and reduces the risks of crises and confrontations on the continent." | | Land border law formalizes China's creep towards Tawang | | Ashok Kumar, a Kargil war veteran and visiting fellow at the Centre For Land Welfare Studies, writes in Indian Express that the newly promulgated land border law "formalises and legalises China's geographic creep towards Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh and parts of eastern Ladakh and creates conditions for using newly-constructed border villages close to the LAC for claiming sovereignty over disputed areas." | | Quad nations must rescue Sri Lanka from its 'Made in China' crisis | | Tara Kartha, distinguished fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, writes in The Print that "if the 'Quad' has to mean anything, all four need to step up smartly to rescue Colombo from its 'Made in China' crisis, and rescue Sri Lankan sovereignty for itself. As for Maldives, all four need to plan their respective pleasure-seeking populations holiday seasons around it." | | America must stop thinking with its missiles | | Van Jackson of Victoria University of Wellington, argues in Foreign Policy that "if the US can prioritize economic statecraft oriented toward stability and peace, help Asian economies reduce inequality and adapt to climate change, and give up its effort to sustain a hegemony it no longer has, it will help Asia create a stability that is not only greater, but better and more just." | | US must get ready for war against Russia | | Evelyn N. Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia in the Obama administration, writes in Defense One that "the United States must do more than issue ultimatums about sanctions and economic penalties. US leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war." | | Tokayev isn't Russia's client but Moscow needed to save him | | Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argues that Kazakhstan president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev "is by no means Moscow's client, yet allowing him (and Nazarbayev too, at long last) to be toppled would, in Moscow's thinking, allow the forces of ultra-nationalism to come to the fore, likely followed at some point by Islamist radicals. So Tokayev must be saved, just like Belarus's longtime leader Alexander Lukashenko back in the summer of 2020, when protests erupted there." | | China draws up big plans for Latin America and Caribbean | | Professor R. Evan Ellis and Leland Lazarus, speechwriter to the Combatant Commander of US Southern Command, take a close look in their piece for The Diplomat at the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Forum Joint Action Plan (2022-2024), a newly published report, that gives us an inkling of "China's intentions to expand its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean across a broad range of economic sectors, with an emphasis on the construction of infrastructure in multiple domains, using associated China-provided financing vehicles, and deepening China's presence in an array of strategic technology sectors." | | PODCAST WATCH | | Stability and security of Myanmar crucial for India's North-East | | We recommend this episode of The Wire podcast, where host professor Happymon Jacob interviews Rajiv Bhatia, retired Indian diplomat and distinguished fellow, the Gateway House, about India's approach towards Myanmar since the military coup a year ago. He argues that the stability and security of Myanmar are of crucial importance for the stability and security of India's Northeast. | | | | Copyright © 2022.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
