| Sreemoy Talukdar brings you the essential cheat sheet on foreign affairs covering India and the world |  | | Welcome to Firstpost's global brief. The India-Russia summit was high on optics and agreements but also exposed the widening gap between both sides. While Russia may derive some comfort from the fact that it can still count India among its friends, its decision to militarise the Ukrainian border has got the NATO and US panicking so much that Biden in a one-on-one meeting this week warned Putin against invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Biden's democracy summit is under way with a furious China mounting a counter-response, US and some of its allies have announced they are diplomatically boycotting Beijing Olympics (picture above), and Myanmar's military junta has made sure that Suu Kyi remains behind bars, for now. | | TOP FIVE NEWS UPDATES | | India-Russia summit produces a raft of agreements and optics, but key differences remain stark | | Readers of this newsletter would be aware of the delicate balancing act that India pulled off this week which started with an inaugural 2+2 dialogue with Russia, the visit of Russian president Vladimir Putin and ends with prime minister Narendra Modi taking part in a virtual 'Summit for Democracy' called by US president Joe Biden that brought together more than 100 participants representing governments, civil society and private-sector leaders, excluding, of course, Russia. The India-Russia summit itself was an attempt by both sides to stem the drift in bilateral ties with a host of agreements and a meaty joint statement. The highlight of the summit was Putin's five-hour sojourn in India to meet Modi, only the second time the Russian president has ventured abroad since the pandemic. The summit also got a lot of media attention. American media noted that that supplied of Russian S-400 missile defence systems, that may yet subject India to CAATSA sanctions, have begun. According to New York Times, "the confirmation that the missile defense system deal, first agreed upon in 2018, was going ahead despite threats that it could affect India's growing relations with the United States signaled that New Delhi was willing to take calculated risks to bolster its defenses against an emboldened China at its borders." India media gave the summit a largely positive coverage, considering the steady drifting apart of ties. The Print notes that "India and Russia signed 28 agreements and New Delhi underlined its goal of becoming Russia's defence development and production partner from just a buyer, and even raised Chinese aggression in Ladakh, telling Moscow that "India seeks partners who are sensitive and responsive to its expectations and requirements". If you want to go through the official documents, I have you covered. Here's the list of agreements, the rather curious 99-point joint statement, the opening remarks by external affairs minister S Jaishankar ahead of the 2+2 dialogue with defence minister Rajnath Singh and their counterparts Sergey Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu and Lavrov's presser after the meeting. There was no dearth of optics. Putin said: "We perceive India as a great power, a friendly nation and a time-tested friend" and Modi said: "There have been many fundamental changes at the global level in the last several decades. A lot of geo-political equations have emerged. But India-Russia friendship has been a constant among all these variables. Both the countries have not only cooperated with each other without any hesitation but have also taken special care of each other's sensitivities. It is truly a unique and reliable model of inter-state friendship." This claim is debatable. Lavrov was quoted by Russian news agency as saying that "we expressed our serious concern to our Indian friends over the US activity there under the slogan of so-called Indo-Pacific strategies and the creation of closed bloc-type structures." Canvassing for China on a bilateral forum is not exactly a sign of respecting India's sensibilities. Similarly, without naming China, India also referred to "militarisation and expansion of armament in our neighbourhood and unprovoked aggression on our northern border since early summer of 2020", as Rajnath Singh said in his remarks. Defence deal remained the cornerstone of ties, with both sides concluding a Rs 5,100-crore deal to jointly produce more than 600,000 AK-203 assault rifles at a facility in Uttar Pradesh's Amethi district to advance self-reliance in defence manufacturing. | | Biden-Putin video call achieves no breakthrough, tension still high over Ukraine | | Amid US intelligence reports that Russia, which has amassed a large number of troops on Ukrainian border, may invade Ukraine "as soon as early 2022", US president Joe Biden and his Russia counterpart Vladimir Putin met face-to-face in a two-hour video call on Tuesday where Biden "told President Putin directly that if Russia further invades Ukraine, the United States and our European allies would respond with strong economic measures" while Putin, according to Associated Press, was unimpressed by the sanctions threat. The news agency quoted Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov as saying, "While the US president talked about possible sanctions, our president emphasized what Russia needs," Ushakov said, adding that "sanctions aren't something new, they have been in place for a long time and will not have any effect." According to Reuters, Putin responded to the warning with a demand for reliable, legally binding guarantees against NATO expansion eastward and complained about NATO attempts to "develop" Ukrainian territory, while the White House said Biden did not make any guarantees to limit NATO expansion with regard to Ukraine. In short, there appeared no breakthrough. The White House readout is terse and short, stating that that Biden "reiterated his support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy." The longer statement released by Kremlin says "Putin warned against shifting the responsibility on Russia, since it was NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to gain a foothold on Ukrainian territory, and building up its military capabilities along the Russian border." New York Times has "five takeaways from the Biden-Putin call". Washington Post argues that Biden drew a red line and threw the "first serious challenge to our illiberal foe in more than five years" while Russian state media RT has its own set of five takeaways that includes both leaders calling for tit-for-tat sanctions. | | PM Modi takes part in Day 1 of Biden's democracy summit, Pakistan rejects invite, China furious | | The much-hyped Summit for Democracy, convened by the US president began on Thursday — part of Joe Biden's concerted effort to push back against rising authoritarian rule worldwide inspired by China. Biden, who perceives this as an ideological fight against an increasingly economically powerful China that touts its Communist dictatorship a better model than democracy, called for world leaders to "lock arms" to strengthen democracies and demonstrate their worth in a changing world. In his opening remarks on Thursday, Biden admitted that "the data we're seeing is largely pointing in the wrong direction" and called it a critical moment for fellow leaders to redouble their efforts to bolster democracies, reports Associated Press. In a column for USA Today, US secretary of state Antony Blinken explained the rationale behind the holding of the summit. Blinken writes: "Unscrupulous leaders have seized the opportunity (provided by Covid-19) to crush freedom of assembly and crank up surveillance, and false information about the virus and vaccines has spread widely. This is why President Joe Biden is bringing more than 100 governments together for the Summit for Democracy." In his opening remarks at the virtual summit, prime minister Narendra Modi said "the principles of democracy should guide global governance and technology companies should contribute to preserving open and democratic societies." According to Hindustan Times that quoted a source to attribute remarks to Modi that were closed for the media, the PM emphasised the need for democratic countries to deliver on values enshrined in their constitutions, and outlined sensitivity, accountability, participation and reform orientation as the four pillars of Indian democratic governance. Firstpost reports that Modi was invited to participate in the main leaders' plenary session hosted by Biden. This closed-door Session saw interventions from 12 select countries, including India. He will deliver India's national statement tomorrow that will be made public. The summit, that brings together "over 100 countries to galvanize commitments and initiatives across three principal themes: defending against authoritarianism, fighting corruption, and promoting respect for human rights" has courted widespread criticism even among American and western media for its criterion of selecting countries that left out prominent democracies such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka from the Indian subcontinent but invited Pakistan. And even more ironically, Pakistan has declined the invitation possibly at its 'iron brother' China's behest. As many have pointed out, it wasn't clear why some states with poor democratic records have a seat at the table, while others with better democratic bona fides don't. Interestingly, China has suffered a meltdown in the wake of the summit. In a series of White Papers and commentaries defending its own system as much superior compared to America's, China has claimed that its "whole process democracy" is better than the state of democracy in the US. Chinese Communist Party's motive behind this elaborate ideological challenge to Biden's summit, as Bloomberg points out, is to justify its authoritarian rule by redefining the terms of democracy. And it may even be working. | | UK, Australia, Canada join US in diplomatic boycott of 2022 Beijing Olympics; France says it's pointless | | Politics over the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics is peaking. On Monday, the White House announced that the "Biden administration will not send any diplomatic or official representation to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympic Games given the PRC's (People's Republic of China's) ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses." NBC News points out that a "diplomatic boycott means that no U.S. government officials will attend the Games but that U.S. athletes will still be allowed to compete." By Wednesday, Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada said they, too, will join the US in a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics. As CNN reports, speaking at a news conference in Sydney, Australian prime minister Scott Morrison said the government would keep its official representatives at home, although Australian athletes will still attend the Games in February. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said he was "extremely concerned by the repeated human rights violations by the Chinese government" that includes rights abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet and CCP's political crackdown in Hong Kong. The aim of the boycott is "to hurt the pride of host nations such as China, which often have both sports and politics mixed into their motives for staging events as big as an Olympics or football World Cup. The sting will also be felt by the International Olympic Committee, whose leaders have a keen sense of its potential place in world politics even while touting the neutrality it is bound to by the Olympic Charter." France, however, has said that it won't join other nations in boycotting the Beijing Games. French president Emmanuel Macron, who has been striving for EU's strategic autonomy and a foreign policy line unaligned with that of the US on China, said on Thursday that he would rather work with the IOC on the protection of athletes around the world than engage in symbolic boycotts. This will be welcome news for China, that has warned the boycotting nations that they "will pay the price for their mistaken acts". | | Suu Kyi sentenced to two years in jail, India expresses anguish, Myanmar's military hits back at UN | | Ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi was sent to four years in prison on 11 charges of incitement, corruption, violations of the Official Secret Act and a law on natural disasters, among others, by a court in Myanmar on Monday, a sentence that was later reduced to two years after a partial pardon by the head of the military-appointed government. Suu Kyi has denied all charges that carry a combined maximum sentence of more than a century in prison. Reuters further reports that deposed Myanmar president Win Myint was sentenced to four years' detention at an undisclosed location. India has expressed its dismay at the verdicts. India's external affairs ministry spokesperson in a statement said: "We are disturbed at the recent verdicts. As a neighbouring democracy, India has been consistently supportive of the democratic transition in Myanmar." The UN has slammed the "sham trial" and called for Suu Kyi's "immediate release". UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet on Monday said from Geneva that the conviction "closes yet another door to political dialogue" in Myanmar, where the military took power on February 1, and "will only deepen rejection of the coup". In reply, Myanmar's military junta accused senior UN officials on Thursday of interference and making judgments based on "distorted news." In a statement, Myanmar's foreign ministry said, "It is not appropriate to make one-sided judgment against the decision of the court which falls within the domestic jurisdiction of a sovereign country. Such acts constitute interference in the judiciary process and internal affairs of Myanmar." Washington Post in an opinion piece Suu Kyi's part in the struggle for democracy is over and The Atlantic has written her political obituary. The Daily Beast, however, says that junta's heavy handed tactics against Suu Kyi has restored her aura. | | | | | | | | | | TOP ANALYSES OF THE WEEK | | India still believes that holding Russia close has some benefits | | In Times of India, Indrani Bagchi argues that India-Russia relationship cannot hark back to the days of yore because of "growing divergences. India is outgrowing the relationship. So is Russia. But India continues to believe that holding Russia close has some pluses – it keeps Russia on a more sensible path on issues like Afghanistan, and to the extent possible, India provides that wedge preventing Russia from falling wholesale into the Chinese basket." | | Summit an effort to keep the India-Russia romance alive | | Writing for Indian Express, C Raja Mohan of National University of Singapore, argues that the "recent story of India-Russia relations is about keeping an old romance alive as Delhi and Moscow align with more attractive partners" while the success of Monday's Modi-Putin "summit lies not in squeezing more out of bilateral defence ties, but in laying a clear path for expansive economic cooperation, and generating a better understanding of each other's imperatives on Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific." | | India, Russia have big picture convergence on multipolar world order | | Samir Saran, president of Observer Research Foundation, argues that "one of India's primary objectives in the coming decades is to prevent China's hegemony in Asia. A multipolar world and a multipolar Asia are in its interest. Russia will strongly endorse this, and, for differing reasons, seek it. In its calculus, it would position the US as the principal protagonist to thwart. The Russians would not want to curtail China if that ends up enabling US influence. Therefore, there is a big picture convergence on a multipolar world order, even as India and Russia differ on relative roles of the poles shaping this order. | | India needs a grand strategy that addresses the China problem on all fronts | | In Foreign Affairs magazine, former national security advisor Shivshankar Menon weighs in on the ongoing India-China border dispute. He writes, "Both Beijing and New Delhi have other preoccupations and should not want to be locked in conflict. China today faces disputes along much of its periphery, not just with India. And India wants to transform itself into a modern, prosperous, and secure country, something that fighting with Beijing distracts from and delays. To avoid getting sidetracked, New Delhi will need to develop a grand strategy that addresses an increasingly assertive and nationalist China, not just on the border but across political and economic issues." | | Indian Navy needs the formulation of a National Strategy for Maritime Security | | Admiral Arun Prakash, former chief of naval staff, writes in Indian Express that "calls for enhancing the Indian Navy's share of the defence budget from a paltry 12 per cent to at least 18-20 per cent are certainly justified. But, of equal importance, is the formulation of a National Strategy for Maritime Security that goes well beyond building a capable 'fighting navy' and encompasses the upgradation of the full gamut of India's maritime capabilities including shipbuilding, merchant shipping, ports, seabed exploration and fisheries." | | India should exploit Pakistan's economic mess | | How bad is the situation in debt-ridden Pakistan? What should India do? New Delhi should ditch the Good Samaritan itch and turn the screws as Pakistan grapples with its economic mess, argues ORF senior fellow Sushant Sareen in his piece for News18. | | Talibanisation of Pakistan is afoot | | Ayesha Siddiqa, senior fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College, London, writes in The Print that socio-politically, Afghanistan is expanding into Pakistan. While Islamabad claims the Taliban are inching towards pragmatism, Pakistan is moving towards the original formula of Talibanisation. | | Absence of some neighbours at Biden's democracy summit makes India's job harder | | Constantino Xavier, Brookings Institution non-resident fellow, weighs in on India's participation on democracy summit. He writes, "India may be worried about the absence of some of its democratic neighbors at the summit, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan, in striking contrast to the invitation to Pakistan" This, argues the author, increases India's concern that "by leaving out its fellow, imperfect democracies, it will become harder to flesh out the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific and counter China's growing political influence in the region." | | World may not end anymore if Chinese economy falters | | Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley Investment Management's chief global strategist, writes in Financial Times that China's surprisingly rapid slowdown is eliciting familiar warnings that, as China goes, so goes the global economy. But China may not matter as much as it once did. | | How Chinese Communist Party silenced Peng Shuai | | Paul Mozur, Muyi Xiao, Jeff Kao and Gray Beltran of New York Times in an investigative article around China's silencing of tennis player Peng Shuai, sheds light on how the Chinese Communist Party-appointed censors jump into action whenever inconvenient news erupts on the Chinese internet. The authors give a blow-by-blow account of how the CCP went about its job in erasing Peng, one of China's top athletes who brought allegations of sexual assault against Zhang Gaoli, a former vice premier. | | PODCAST WATCH | | Deconstructing the implications of India-Russia summit | | We recommend this edition of StratNews Global podcast where host Amitabh P. Revi talks to ambassador P.S. Raghavan, ex-envoy to Russia, Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre and Anna Kireeva, Moscow's MGIMO University professor on the India-Russia summit and its implications. | | | | Copyright © 2021.Firstpost - All Rights Reserved. | |
