Cinema News: How Actor Awards change the Oscar race

March 2, 2026 | View in browser

By Glenn Whipp

Columnist

There were tears (and cheers) for Catherine O'Hara. Rhea Seehorn explained "Pluribus," or at least tried to. Harrison Ford was celebrated at the "half-point of his career." And, because the show's on Netflix, there were a few well-placed F-bombs, not including the swears muttered by the actors who didn't win.

The 32nd Actor Awards — or the very first Actor Awards, since for the previous 31 years this ceremony has been known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards — went off without a hitch Sunday, and ended with a bang, scrambling a best picture race that felt settled after "One Battle After Another" won the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards on Saturday.

There were TV awards presented too. But we pay attention to the Actor Awards because the show takes place while Oscar ballots are out and are, for the most part, a reliable precursor to the Academy Awards. How trustworthy will they be for the acting winners this year? Let's take a look.

Cast in a motion picture

Winner: "Sinners"

The past: The winner of this award has gone on to take the best picture Oscar in 15 of 30 years, making it basically a coin flip and easily the Actor Awards' least trustworthy Oscar precursor. (The ensemble prize wasn't awarded in 1994, the ceremony's first year.) Oscar also-ran "Conclave" won last year, ending a three-year streak — "CODA," "Everything Everywhere All at Once" and "Oppenheimer" — where the winner of the cast prize went on to take best picture.

Will history repeat itself? If "Sinners" had simply taken this award and nothing else, I would say "One Battle After Another" would still be the overwhelming favorite to win the best picture Oscar. But snagging this prize and Michael B. Jordan winning lead actor gives one pause, doesn't it? Again, the cast award is not a reliable best picture precursor. A Ryan Coogler movie ("Black Panther") won in 2019, but lost the Oscar to "Green Book." And while "Sinners" did haul in a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, "One Battle" wasn't far behind with 13, just one shy of the previous record. It's easy to get carried away with the way the room exploded when Samuel L. Jackson announced the winner, but "One Battle's" Producers Guild win carries more weight. I'll need a couple of days to sit with this.

Female actor in a leading role

Winner: Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"

The past: SAG and the academy have matched 21 of 31 years. The last two years have seen the groups split, with Emma Stone ("Poor Things") winning her second Oscar over SAG winner Lily Gladstone ("Killers of the Flower Moon") in 2024 and Mikey Madison prevailing for "Anora" over Demi Moore, who won over SAG-AFTRA voters and earned a huge standing ovation when she took the stage for her gonzo comeback turn in the body horror movie "The Substance."

Will history repeat itself? Buckley has been a lock for the lead actress Oscar since "Hamnet" premiered in September at the Telluride Film Festival, her searching, searing turn as the film's grieving mother producing the kind of visceral reaction that guts audiences and wins awards. And, boy, has she won awards these last few months, taking pretty much everything save for the major critics groups. The naysayers decried the acting as overripe, sniffing instead of sniffling. Monsters. There's no denying Buckley goes big with her emotions here, but the magic in her work also can be seen in a much-used still photo from "Hamnet," the one where she's resting her elbows on the Old Globe stage, hands clasped, face transfixed, heart opened. You know the shot. And you're probably getting a little verklempt just thinking about it.

Male actor in a leading role

Winner: Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"

The past: This category has been the most reliable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the academy matching 24 of 31 times. There are exceptions, though, such as just last year when Adrien Brody won the Oscar for "The Brutalist," prevailing over SAG winner Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown").

Will history repeat itself? Entering the month of February, it looked like Timothée Chalamet was a shoo-in for playing a talented, self-promoting ping-pong player in "Marty Supreme." In fact, some know-it-all called this race more or less over just a week ago. (That was me.) Chalamet could still win. Maybe SAG-AFTRA voters didn't want to give him the award again, just a year after they honored him for his lead turn in "A Complete Unknown." Maybe SAG-AFTRA voters felt he was a bit, shall we say ... "brash" in the way he marketed the movie and needed to be taken down a peg.

So now, entering March, it's looking like "Marty Supreme" could be this year's version of "The Irishman," a film that earns a lot of nominations (in this case, nine) and comes away with nothing.

Meanwhile, Jordan's big swing movie star turn in "Sinners," playing twin brothers Smoke and Stack, was the best work of his career. That scream that Viola Davis let out when she opened the envelope spoke to the enthusiasm in the room both for the actor and the film. Momentum definitely seems to be on Jordan's side right now.

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Female actor in a supporting role

Winner: Amy Madigan, "Weapons"

The past: The Actor Award winner has gone on to take an Oscar 23 of 31 times, including last year, when Zoe Saldaña won for "Emilia Pérez," one of countless prizes she won that season. (Note: One of those 23 winners, "The Reader's" Kate Winslet, was nominated for — and won — the 2009 Oscar for lead actress for that performance.)

Will history repeat itself? Who knows? This category has been all over the place, but as Madigan said in her speech, she's been doing this a "long ass time" and there's a lot of love for this 75-year-old acting great. Teyana Taylor ("One Battle After Another") took the Golden Globe, and Wunmi Mosaku ("Sinners") won at the British Academy Film Awards. And the "they're due" narrative doesn't always play at the Oscars. (Just ask Demi Moore or Glenn Close.) Will a "One Battle" sweep carry both Taylor and Sean Penn? Or is there room for an outlier? It's tempting to lean toward Madigan.

Male actor in a supporting role

Winner: Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"

The past: The SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 22 times in 31 years, including the last dozen, the longest streak of any category.

Will history repeat itself? Penn did not attend the Actor Awards, the only thing less surprising than this win. Coming on the heels of taking the supporting actor prize from BAFTA last weekend (Penn didn't go to that ceremony either), it's looking likely now that Penn will win his third Oscar. He's barely campaigned and remains a divisive figure. But his menacing turn as the outrageous Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, a man given to zealotry and tight T-shirts, is the best work he has done in years. Will he go to the Oscars, if only to collect the trophy so he can give another statue to Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky? We'll soon see.