Cinema News: Oscar power rankings: Best picture

January 12, 2026 | View in browser

By Glenn Whipp

Columnist

Benicio del Toro doesn't have a phone charger handy. But he can tell you the source of his own private one battle after another, and I think every parent can relate.

I'm Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope newsletter. A third Trader Joe's coming to Santa Monica? And there's a Von's next door, so they'll be sharing a parking lot? Sounds about right.

Let's do a last ranking of the best picture contenders 10 days out from Oscar nominations. RIP "Wicked: For Good."

The actors, directors and producers guilds have weighed in with their picks for the best of 2025, though, as always, their slates reflect an American sensibility at odds with the motion picture academy's global membership. "F1" as one of the year's best movies? That's a whole lotta love, PGA. Will it translate to an Oscar nom?

Falling out of the rankings since Nov. 3: "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Wicked: For Good"

10. "The Secret Agent" (Unranked)

This last slot is truly anyone's guess. "F1"? It's going to pick up Oscar nods for film editing, sound and visual effects. Maybe that below-the-line love catapults it. "Weapons"? It earned a PGA slot too, even with writer-director Zach Cregger off filming "Resident Evil," removing him from the awards circuit. "Blue Moon"? "It never entered my mind," but maybe. I'm going to stick to my belief that the academy's overseas contingent will come through in a historic fashion this year, nominating three non-English language films, including Kleber Mendonça Filho's resonant drama.

9. "It Was Just an Accident" (7)

Here's the second international entry. Jafar Panahi's Palme d'Or-winning thriller possesses a withering critique of the cruelty and corruption of an authoritarian regime, combined with a blistering sense of humor. Panahi didn't receive a DGA nom, but I still think he'll earn a nomination from the academy's directors branch, putting this movie on solid ground for best picture.

8. "Train Dreams" (Unranked)

Clint Bentley's haunting adaptation of the Denis Johnson novella was among the producers guild's 10 best picture nominees, following similar success with the National Board of Review, the American Film Institute and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. It entered the season behind Netflix's high-profile contenders — Noah Baumbach's "Jay Kelly," Kathryn Bigelow's "A House of Dynamite" and Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein" — and became the year's slow-burn, word-of-mouth favorite. What a terrific story.

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7. "Bugonia" (9)

On the first set of power rankings after the September fall festivals, I put "Bugonia" at No. 10, almost as a placeholder. "Something will knock it out," was my thinking. I moved it up to No. 9 last time around and now, from all appearances, it looks like Yorgos Lanthimos ("Poor Things," "The Favourite") will have a third best picture nominee with this darkly funny master class in misanthropy.

6. "Sentimental Value" (4)

Joachim Trier's family drama felt like the kind of beautifully made, down-the-middle movie for grownups that would go far this awards season. It even had a dash of film industry satire, poking fun at Netflix, the monolith on everyone's minds these days. And it has done fine. But the fact that it couldn't land a single nomination with SAG-AFTRA voters, not even for Stellan Skarsgård's charming turn as the irascible family patriarch, tells us to temper expectations.

5. "Frankenstein" (8)

Clearly people like Guillermo del Toro's monster movie a lot more than I do. Part of it is that people just dig Del Toro, a movie fanboy who goes out of his way to boost film culture. His directors guild nomination portends similar recognition at the Oscars, and the film itself could wind up with as many as 10 nominations. Some of these will be clearly in the spirit of rewarding work that is the "most" and not the "best," an academy tradition that will never go away.

4. "Hamnet" (2)

So many tears. So many film festival audience awards. And yet Chloé Zhao's tender drama about love and loss and the cathartic power of art seems destined to win just one Oscar — lead actress Jessie Buckley.

3. "Marty Supreme" (5)

It's done well at the box office. Its director Josh Safdie scored a nod with his branch. And it did well with SAG-AFTRA voters, earning noms for cast and actors Timothée Chalamet and Odessa A'zion. Fire up the blimp and get Chalamet that Oscar.

2. "Sinners" (3)

Three movies hold the record for most Oscar nominations in a single year, 14 — "La La Land," "Titanic" and "All About Eve." Ryan Coogler's genre-defying "Sinners" appears poised to break that record, notching 15. And that's not even really wish-casting any categories. Follow with me and take off your socks and shoes if you need help counting: Picture, director, lead actor Michael B. Jordan, supporting actress Wunmi Mosaku, Coogler's original screenplay, casting, cinematography, costume design, film editing, makeup and hair, production design, score, the original song "I Lied to You," sound and visual effects. You could also make a case for Miles Caton, nominated for an Actor Award for his turn as young blues musician Sammie and no one would give you any side-eye.

So why isn't "Sinners" No. 1 on this list? Because "One Battle After Another" exists. What a year for Warner Bros. (Makes that "Sentimental Value" story line all the more cutting.)

1. "One Battle After Another" (1)

Paul Thomas Anderson's electrifying epic seems set for a pretty good Oscar nominations morning too, probably netting a baker's dozen. It also set a Screen Actors Guild Awards (a.k.a. The Actors) record, earning seven nominations. It's in great shape, even if that "Sinners" haul indicates that this race might be a close one.