Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day.
1, 2, 3, 4: Now we're in a trade war
President Trump's torrent of tariffs continues to tank the stock market as Wall Street reacts to an uncertain financial future amid an escalating trade war.
Trump announced last week that the U.S. would slap a universal 10% tariff on imported goods from all foreign countries, in addition to existing tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada and China. Some nations face higher rates, including the European Union and India.
China and other countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own, which led Trump on Tuesday to threaten a 104% tariff on Chinese products beginning today (I'm writing this Tuesday, so you'll know better than me if that actually happened).
A trader reacts as other traders work on the options trading floor at the Cboe Global Markets in Chicago on Tuesday. (Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press)
What does all that mean for California?
In short, higher prices and increased uncertainty given the volatile nature of Trump's actions so far.
At the Sacramento level, Gov. Gavin Newsom is pursuing side deals with international trading partners and distancing California's economic policies from what's coming out of the White House.
"California is a stable trading partner and we hope you consider that as it relates to California-made products," Newsom said in a video message aimed at international businesses posted to Bluesky.
The trade war is also expected to cause pain at Los Angeles County's major ports, my colleague Laurence Darmiento reported.
"With Trump's across-the-board 10% tariffs worldwide and higher 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed on a number of Asian trading partners, economists say it's likely that one of the key drivers of the Los Angeles-area economy — trade — will be hit hard," he wrote.
President Trump is displayed on a television on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. (Seth Wenig / Associated Press)
Economists are on 'Recession Watch'
For economist Clement Bohr, the uncertainty from an unpredictable federal government is the biggest problem.
"Nobody knows what is going to happen from one day to the next," he said. "That can be very destructive for the state of the economy."
Bohr is an assistant professor at UCLA and economist with the university's Anderson Forecast, which issued a "Recession Watch" last month. It's like the flash flood watch we're used to seeing from the National Weather Service, but for a possible economic disaster.
Bohr told me that he and fellow economists were paying attention to three specific actions from the Trump administration they worry could spiral into a recession — all Trump campaign promises: major tariffs on foreign goods, the "largest deportation operation in American history" and the chainsaw approach of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
"If he's actually able to implement all these things … that's a recipe for a recession," Bohr said, "because each of the policies are going to contract a different sector of the economy and together it's going to spill over to the broader economy."
Deportations and DOGE have been held in check to some extent, he said, but Trump's tariffs are a different story.
"They completely blew through the roof with the magnitude [that exceeded] expectations," he said. "Now … economic policy makers and economic forecasters are concerned that this tariff policy alone could lead the U.S. to be in a recession. That's what we're all trying to figure out at the moment."
Tariffs are already affecting grocery stores, such as Diamond Farmers Market, where much of their produce and groceries come from foreign countries. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
So what should average Californians be worried about or bracing for right now?
Bohr urged consumers not to overreact in the moment, since the stock market itself is reactive and policies can change.
"The main point for the average consumer today is to expect that prices are going to be more expensive for a lot of the everyday items that they will be buying," he told me. "They will effectively be poorer over the next year or so because the prices for their everyday goods are going to be higher."
I'll share more from my conversation with Bohr later this week — and I hope to hear from you too. Yes, you, reading this right now, worried or wondering about how Trump's tariffs and other economic policies will affect your life in the Golden State.
What questions do you have about the tariffs and the fallout from them? Are you worried about a recession? If so, why and what are you doing to prepare? Maybe you're already feeling the impact and want to share your story.
Let us know by taking this survey. You could see your experience or questions highlighted in upcoming editions of Essential California.
Today's top stories
A farmworker ties grapevines to wires in a Kern County vineyard. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
Californians see undocumented immigrants as essential to the economy, a poll finds
Schiff's first Senate bill proposes tax credit for hardening homes against fire, disasters
Broadcast television is in trouble. Stations are asking Washington for help
- Station owners such as Nexstar Media Group, E.W. Scripps and Fox Television Stations say part of the answer has to be consolidation, which would allow them to better withstand the competition from huge tech firms. But long-standing regulations stand in the way.
- Now, the companies are calling on the Federal Communications Commission to lift ownership caps that currently limit them to owning two TV outlets in a single market.
What else is going on
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This morning's must-reads
Banners in downtown Palm Springs show support for Canadians. The city is a popular tourist draw for snowbirds, but many are reconsidering traveling to the U.S. because of President Trump's aggression toward Canada. (Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
Canadian snowbirds love Palm Springs. But Trump is making them say: Sorry! We're leaving. The Coachella Valley has long been a favorite destination for Canadian snowbirds, who pump millions of dollars into the local economy every year. Now, its desert towns are bracing for a major financial blow as northerners — citing Trump's aggression toward Canada — cancel flights, ditch hotel and Airbnb reservations, and put their second homes up for sale.
Other must-reads
How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.
For your downtime
Going out
Staying in
A question for you: What's your favorite thing to do during spring in California?
Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.
And finally ... your photo of the day
Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they're important to you.
The Slugger is a 16-inch sausage available this season at Dodger Stadium. (Jenn Harris / Los Angeles Times )
Today's great photo is from Times food columnist Jenn Harris at Dodger Stadium, where several new food items are on the menu, including the $40 forearm-long hot dog.
Have a great day, from the Essential California team
Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Andrew Campa, Sunday reporter
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Hunter Clauss, multiplatform editor
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters
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